We consider probabilistic multinomial probit classification using Gaussian process (GP) priors. The challenges with the multiclass GP classification are the integration over the non-Gaussian posterior distribution, and the increase of the number of unknown latent variables as the number of target classes grows. Expectation propagation (EP) has proven to be a very accurate method for approximate inference but the existing EP approaches for the multinomial probit GP classification rely on numerical quadratures or independence assumptions between the latent values from different classes to facilitate the computations. In this paper, we propose a novel nested EP approach which does not require numerical quadratures, and approximates accurately all between-class posterior dependencies of the latent values, but still scales linearly in the number of classes. The predictive accuracy of the nested EP approach is compared to Laplace, variational Bayes, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approximations with various benchmark data sets. In the experiments nested EP was the most consistent method with respect to MCMC sampling, but the differences between the compared methods were small if only the classification accuracy is concerned.

Traditional network diagnosis methods of Client-Terminal Device (CTD) problems tend to be laborintensive, time consuming, and contribute to increased customer dissatisfaction. In this paper, we propose an automated solution for rapidly diagnose the root causes of network performance issues in CTD. Based on a new intelligent inference technique, we create the Intelligent Automated Client Diagnostic (IACD) system, which only relies on collection of Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) packet traces. Using soft-margin Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers, the system (i) distinguishes link problems from client problems and (ii) identifies characteristics unique to the specific fault to report the root cause. The modular design of the system enables support for new access link and fault types. Experimental evaluation demonstrated the capability of the IACD system to distinguish between faulty and healthy links and to diagnose the client faults with 98% accuracy. The system can perform fault diagnosis independent of the user's specific TCP implementation, enabling diagnosis of diverse range of client devices.

The multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) probl ems are of the most interesting problems for many decision-making experts. This problem aris es in various fields of the real life, and constitutes very important content in scientific research such as management science, decision-making theory, system theory, operational research and economics. Now, many effective methods to determine the att ributive weights have been studied for MADM. Those are the subjective weight determining methods such as the feature vector method ( Saaty T.L. 1977), the least square sum method (Chu A Tw, Kala ba R E, Spingarn K, 1979), Delphi and AHP method (Hwang C.L., Lin M, 1987), and the objective weight determining methods such as the entropy method (Hwang C.L., Yoon K, 1981), the principal component analysis (Yan Jian-huo, 1989) and DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) (Ye Chen, Kevin W. Li, Haiyan Xu and Sifeng Liu, 2009). The final ranking method affects greatly on the dec ision-making process. Hwang and Yoon (1981) proposed a new approach, TOPSIS (Technique for Orde r Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) for solving MADM problem. Recently, TOPSIS methods with interval weights (Gao Feng-ji, et al, 2005) and multiple attribute interval number TOPSIS (Chu A Tw, Kalaba R E, Spingarn K, 1979) have been studied. Guo Kai-hong and Mu You-jing (2012) studied the relation between several possibility degree formulas and proposed a possibil ity degree matrices-based method that aimed to objectively determine the weights of criteria in MA DM with intervals. A hybrid approach integrating OWA (Ordered Weighted Averaging) aggreg ation into TOPSIS is proposed to tackle * This work was supported in part by Nanjing Univer sity of Aeronautics and Astronautics, China. 2

We mathematically model Ignacio Matte Blanco's principles of symmetric and asymmetric being through use of an ultrametric topology. We use for this the highly regarded 1975 book of this Chilean psychiatrist and pyschoanalyst (born 1908, died 1995). Such an ultrametric model corresponds to hierarchical clustering in the empirical data, e.g. text. We show how an ultrametric topology can be used as a mathematical model for the structure of the logic that reflects or expresses Matte Blanco's symmetric being, and hence of the reasoning and thought processes involved in conscious reasoning or in reasoning that is lacking, perhaps entirely, in consciousness or awareness of itself. In a companion paper we study how symmetric (in the sense of Matte Blanco's) reasoning can be demarcated in a context of symmetric and asymmetric reasoning provided by narrative text.

The prediction of behavioral information or cognitive states from brain activation images such as those obtained with fMRI can be used to assess the specificity of several brain regions for certain cognitive or perceptual functions. This kind of analysis is implemented by learning a classifier or regression function that fits a given target variable given fMRI activations. The accuracy of this prediction depends on whether it uses the relevant variables i.e. the correct brain regions. Recovering the truly predictive pattern has proven to be challenging from a statistical point of view: the high dimensionality of the data together with the limited number of images makes the problem of brain pattern recovery an ill-posed problem. So far, the approaches proposed to address this issue have relied on linear models, with univariate, i.e. voxel-based, Anova (analysis of variance) for hypothesis testing, or, for predictive modeling, with the choice of a regularizer using a priori domain-specific knowledge, such as the l

In recent years, technological developments in computer networking have predominantly focused on improving connection media speeds and state-of-the-art applications. In tandem with user demand for high-speed delivery of information, tolerance for performance and connectivity issues has decreased. Due to the complexity and scale of modern communications networks that include a multitude of possible client devices, traditional "expert knowledge" or "rule based" methods of performance and fault diagnosis are increasingly inefficient and infeasible. Analysis of packet traces, especially from the Transmission Control Protocol (TCP), is a sophisticated inference based technique used to diagnose complicated network problems in specialized cases. TCP traces contain artifacts related to behavioral characteristics of network elements that a skilled investigator can use to infer the location and root cause of a network fault.

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) approximates a non-negative matrix $X$ by a product of two non-negative low-rank factor matrices $W$ and $H$. NMF and its extensions minimize either the Kullback-Leibler divergence or the Euclidean distance between $X$ and $W^T H$ to model the Poisson noise or the Gaussian noise. In practice, when the noise distribution is heavy tailed, they cannot perform well. This paper presents Manhattan NMF (MahNMF) which minimizes the Manhattan distance between $X$ and $W^T H$ for modeling the heavy tailed Laplacian noise. Similar to sparse and low-rank matrix decompositions, MahNMF robustly estimates the low-rank part and the sparse part of a non-negative matrix and thus performs effectively when data are contaminated by outliers. We extend MahNMF for various practical applications by developing box-constrained MahNMF, manifold regularized MahNMF, group sparse MahNMF, elastic net inducing MahNMF, and symmetric MahNMF. The major contribution of this paper lies in two fast optimization algorithms for MahNMF and its extensions: the rank-one residual iteration (RRI) method and Nesterov's smoothing method. In particular, by approximating the residual matrix by the outer product of one row of W and one row of $H$ in MahNMF, we develop an RRI method to iteratively update each variable of $W$ and $H$ in a closed form solution. Although RRI is efficient for small scale MahNMF and some of its extensions, it is neither scalable to large scale matrices nor flexible enough to optimize all MahNMF extensions. Since the objective functions of MahNMF and its extensions are neither convex nor smooth, we apply Nesterov's smoothing method to recursively optimize one factor matrix with another matrix fixed. By setting the smoothing parameter inversely proportional to the iteration number, we improve the approximation accuracy iteratively for both MahNMF and its extensions.

Inference of hidden classes in stochastic block model is a classical problem with important applications. Most commonly used methods for this problem involve na\"{\i}ve mean field approaches or heuristic spectral methods. Recently, belief propagation was proposed for this problem. In this contribution we perform a comparative study between the three methods on synthetically created networks. We show that belief propagation shows much better performance when compared to na\"{\i}ve mean field and spectral approaches. This applies to accuracy, computational efficiency and the tendency to overfit the data.

We consider the detection of activations over graphs under Gaussian noise, where signals are piece-wise constant over the graph. Despite the wide applicability of such a detection algorithm, there has been little success in the development of computationally feasible methods with proveable theoretical guarantees for general graph topologies. We cast this as a hypothesis testing problem, and first provide a universal necessary condition for asymptotic distinguishability of the null and alternative hypotheses. We then introduce the spanning tree wavelet basis over graphs, a localized basis that reflects the topology of the graph, and prove that for any spanning tree, this approach can distinguish null from alternative in a low signal-to-noise regime. Lastly, we improve on this result and show that using the uniform spanning tree in the basis construction yields a randomized test with stronger theoretical guarantees that in many cases matches our necessary conditions. Specifically, we obtain near-optimal performance in edge transitive graphs, $k$-nearest neighbor graphs, and $\epsilon$-graphs.

Microarray cancer gene expression data comprise of very high dimensions. Reducing the dimensions helps in improving the overall analysis and classification performance. We propose two hybrid techniques, Biogeography - based Optimization - Random Forests (BBO - RF) and BBO - SVM (Support Vector Machines) with gene ranking as a heuristic, for microarray gene expression analysis. This heuristic is obtained from information gain filter ranking procedure. The BBO algorithm generates a population of candidate subset of genes, as part of an ecosystem of habitats, and employs the migration and mutation processes across multiple generations of the population to improve the classification accuracy. The fitness of each gene subset is assessed by the classifiers - SVM and Random Forests. The performances of these hybrid techniques are evaluated on three cancer gene expression datasets retrieved from the Kent Ridge Biomedical datasets collection and the libSVM data repository. Our results demonstrate that genes selected by the proposed techniques yield classification accuracies comparable to previously reported algorithms.