Time series modeling and forecasting has fundamental importance to various practical domains. Thus a lot of active research works is going on in this subject during several years. Many important models have been proposed in literature for improving the accuracy and effectiveness of time series forecasting. The aim of this dissertation work is to present a concise description of some popular time series forecasting models used in practice, with their salient features. In this thesis, we have described three important classes of time series models, viz. the stochastic, neural networks and SVM based models, together with their inherent forecasting strengths and weaknesses. We have also discussed about the basic issues related to time series modeling, such as stationarity, parsimony, overfitting, etc. Our discussion about different time series models is supported by giving the experimental forecast results, performed on six real time series datasets. While fitting a model to a dataset, special care is taken to select the most parsimonious one. To evaluate forecast accuracy as well as to compare among different models fitted to a time series, we have used the five performance measures, viz. MSE, MAD, RMSE, MAPE and Theil's U-statistics. For each of the six datasets, we have shown the obtained forecast diagram which graphically depicts the closeness between the original and forecasted observations. To have authenticity as well as clarity in our discussion about time series modeling and forecasting, we have taken the help of various published research works from reputed journals and some standard books.

We consider the problem of learning a linear factor model. We propose a regularized form of principal component analysis (PCA) and demonstrate through experiments with synthetic and real data the superiority of resulting estimates to those produced by pre-existing factor analysis approaches. We also establish theoretical results that explain how our algorithm corrects the biases induced by conventional approaches. An important feature of our algorithm is that its computational requirements are similar to those of PCA, which enjoys wide use in large part due to its efficiency.

In this article supervised learning problems are solved using soft rule ensembles. We first review the importance sampling learning ensembles (ISLE) approach that is useful for generating hard rules. The soft rules are then obtained with logistic regression from the corresponding hard rules. In order to deal with the perfect separation problem related to the logistic regression, Firth's bias corrected likelihood is used. Various examples and simulation results show that soft rule ensembles can improve predictive performance over hard rule ensembles.

Support vector machine (SVM) training is an active research area since the dawn of the method. In recent years there has been increasing interest in specialized solvers for the important case of linear models. The algorithm presented by Hsieh et al., probably best known under the name of the "liblinear" implementation, marks a major breakthrough. The method is analog to established dual decomposition algorithms for training of non-linear SVMs, but with greatly reduced computational complexity per update step. This comes at the cost of not keeping track of the gradient of the objective any more, which excludes the application of highly developed working set selection algorithms. We present an algorithmic improvement to this method. We replace uniform working set selection with an online adaptation of selection frequencies. The adaptation criterion is inspired by modern second order working set selection methods. The same mechanism replaces the shrinking heuristic. This novel technique speeds up training in some cases by more than an order of magnitude.

Signal processing tasks as fundamental as sampling, reconstruction, minimum mean-square error interpolation and prediction can be viewed under the prism of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Endowing this vantage point with contemporary advances in sparsity-aware modeling and processing, promotes the nonparametric basis pursuit advocated in this paper as the overarching framework for the confluence of kernel-based learning (KBL) approaches leveraging sparse linear regression, nuclear-norm regularization, and dictionary learning. The novel sparse KBL toolbox goes beyond translating sparse parametric approaches to their nonparametric counterparts, to incorporate new possibilities such as multi-kernel selection and matrix smoothing. The impact of sparse KBL to signal processing applications is illustrated through test cases from cognitive radio sensing, microarray data imputation, and network traffic prediction.

Anomaly detection is being regarded as an unsupervised learning task as anomalies stem from adversarial or unlikely events with unknown distributions. However, the predictive performance of purely unsupervised anomaly detection often fails to match the required detection rates in many tasks and there exists a need for labeled data to guide the model generation. Our first contribution shows that classical semi-supervised approaches, originating from a supervised classifier, are inappropriate and hardly detect new and unknown anomalies. We argue that semi-supervised anomaly detection needs to ground on the unsupervised learning paradigm and devise a novel algorithm that meets this requirement. Although being intrinsically non-convex, we further show that the optimization problem has a convex equivalent under relatively mild assumptions. Additionally, we propose an active learning strategy to automatically filter candidates for labeling. In an empirical study on network intrusion detection data, we observe that the proposed learning methodology requires much less labeled data than the state-of-the-art, while achieving higher detection accuracies.

Researchers and scientists increasingly find themselves in the position of having to quickly understand large amounts of technical material. Our goal is to effectively serve this need by using bibliometric text mining and summarization techniques to generate summaries of scientific literature. We show how we can use citations to produce automatically generated, readily consumable, technical extractive summaries. We first propose C-LexRank, a model for summarizing single scientific articles based on citations, which employs community detection and extracts salient information-rich sentences. Next, we further extend our experiments to summarize a set of papers, which cover the same scientific topic. We generate extractive summaries of a set of Question Answering (QA) and Dependency Parsing (DP) papers, their abstracts, and their citation sentences and show that citations have unique information amenable to creating a summary.

This paper investigates graph clustering in the planted cluster model in the presence of {\em small clusters}. Traditional results dictate that for an algorithm to provably correctly recover the clusters, {\em all} clusters must be sufficiently large (in particular, $\tilde{\Omega}(\sqrt{n})$ where $n$ is the number of nodes of the graph). We show that this is not really a restriction: by a more refined analysis of the trace-norm based recovery approach proposed in Jalali et al. (2011) and Chen et al. (2012), we prove that small clusters, under certain mild assumptions, do not hinder recovery of large ones. Based on this result, we further devise an iterative algorithm to recover {\em almost all clusters} via a "peeling strategy", i.e., recover large clusters first, leading to a reduced problem, and repeat this procedure. These results are extended to the {\em partial observation} setting, in which only a (chosen) part of the graph is observed.The peeling strategy gives rise to an active learning algorithm, in which edges adjacent to smaller clusters are queried more often as large clusters are learned (and removed). From a high level, this paper sheds novel insights on high-dimensional statistics and learning structured data, by presenting a structured matrix learning problem for which a one shot convex relaxation approach necessarily fails, but a carefully constructed sequence of convex relaxationsdoes the job.

One of the fundamental problems in machine learning is the estimation of a probability distribution from data. Many techniques have been proposed to study the structure of data, most often building around the assumption that observations lie on a lower-dimensional manifold of high probability. It has been more difficult, however, to exploit this insight to build explicit, tractable density models for high-dimensional data. In this paper, we introduce the deep density model (DDM), a new approach to density estimation. We exploit insights from deep learning to construct a bijective map to a representation space, under which the transformation of the distribution of the data is approximately factorized and has identical and known marginal densities. The simplicity of the latent distribution under the model allows us to feasibly explore it, and the invertibility of the map to characterize contraction of measure across it. This enables us to compute normalized densities for out-of-sample data. This combination of tractability and flexibility allows us to tackle a variety of probabilistic tasks on high-dimensional datasets, including: rapid computation of normalized densities at test-time without evaluating a partition function; generation of samples without MCMC; and characterization of the joint entropy of the data.

Spectral clustering (SC) and graph-based semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithms are sensitive to how graphs are constructed from data. In particular if the data has proximal and unbalanced clusters these algorithms can lead to poor performance on well-known graphs such as $k$-NN, full-RBF, $\epsilon$-graphs. This is because the objectives such as Ratio-Cut (RCut) or normalized cut (NCut) attempt to tradeoff cut values with cluster sizes, which are not tailored to unbalanced data. We propose a novel graph partitioning framework, which parameterizes a family of graphs by adaptively modulating node degrees in a $k$-NN graph. We then propose a model selection scheme to choose sizable clusters which are separated by smallest cut values. Our framework is able to adapt to varying levels of unbalancedness of data and can be naturally used for small cluster detection. We theoretically justify our ideas through limit cut analysis. Unsupervised and semi-supervised experiments on synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the superiority of our method.