Statistical Learning
Unsupervised Modeling of Patient-Level Disease Dynamics
Tamang, Suzanne (City University of New York, The Graduate Center) | Parsons, Simon (City University of New York, Brooklyn College and The Graduate Center )
To provide insight into patient-level disease dynamics from data collected at irregular time intervals, this work extends applications of semi-parametric clustering for temporal mining. In the semi-parametric clustering framework, Markovian models provide useful parametric assumptions for modeling temporal dynamics, and a non-parametric method isused to cluster the temporal abstractions instead operating on the original data. Our contribution extends abstraction to continuous-time Markov models and the clustering componentto the non-parametric Bayesian setting, which does not require the number of clusters to be indicated a priori.
Dynamic Microcluster Chains in Microtext
Robinson, Jason R. (The MITRE Corporation) | Condon, Sherri Lee (The MITRE Corporation)
Two features of microtext that challenge language processing tools are addressed in the context of linking messages in the emergency response domain. First, the effect of very short texts on several classifiers is estimated by comparing the results when classifiers are applied to the full text of news reports vs. only the headlines. These experiments demonstrate a decrease of 5 - 20% in accuracy. A second challenging feature of microtexts is their accumulation in real time, which can be massive for sources such as Twitter. A dynamic hierarchical clustering algorithm that clusters messages as they accumulate is described, and a preliminary experiment in clustering tweets is demonstrated.
Warped Mixtures for Nonparametric Cluster Shapes
Iwata, Tomoharu, Duvenaud, David, Ghahramani, Zoubin
A mixture of Gaussians fit to a single curved or heavy-tailed cluster will report that the data contains many clusters. To produce more appropriate clusterings, we introduce a model which warps a latent mixture of Gaussians to produce nonparametric cluster shapes. The possibly low-dimensional latent mixture model allows us to summarize the properties of the high-dimensional clusters (or density manifolds) describing the data. The number of manifolds, as well as the shape and dimension of each manifold is automatically inferred. We derive a simple inference scheme for this model which analytically integrates out both the mixture parameters and the warping function. We show that our model is effective for density estimation, performs better than infinite Gaussian mixture models at recovering the true number of clusters, and produces interpretable summaries of high-dimensional datasets.
On the convergence of maximum variance unfolding
Arias-Castro, Ery, Pelletier, Bruno
Maximum Variance Unfolding is one of the main methods for (nonlinear) dimensionality reduction. We study its large sample limit, providing specific rates of convergence under standard assumptions. We find that it is consistent when the underlying submanifold is isometric to a convex subset, and we provide some simple examples where it fails to be consistent.
A Method for Comparing Hedge Funds
The paper presents new machine learning methods: signal composition, which classifies time-series regardless of length, type, and quantity; and self-labeling, a supervised-learning enhancement. The paper describes further the implementation of the methods on a financial search engine system to identify behavioral similarities among time-series representing monthly returns of 11,312 hedge funds operated during approximately one decade (2000 - 2010). The presented approach of cross-category and cross-location classification assists the investor to identify alternative investments.
Topic Discovery through Data Dependent and Random Projections
Ding, Weicong, Rohban, Mohammad H., Ishwar, Prakash, Saligrama, Venkatesh
We present algorithms for topic modeling based on the geometry of cross-document word-frequency patterns. This perspective gains significance under the so called separability condition. This is a condition on existence of novel-words that are unique to each topic. We present a suite of highly efficient algorithms based on data-dependent and random projections of word-frequency patterns to identify novel words and associated topics. We will also discuss the statistical guarantees of the data-dependent projections method based on two mild assumptions on the prior density of topic document matrix. Our key insight here is that the maximum and minimum values of cross-document frequency patterns projected along any direction are associated with novel words. While our sample complexity bounds for topic recovery are similar to the state-of-art, the computational complexity of our random projection scheme scales linearly with the number of documents and the number of words per document. We present several experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets to demonstrate qualitative and quantitative merits of our scheme.
Better subset regression
To find efficient screening methods for high dimensional linear regression models, this paper studies the relationship between model fitting and screening performance. Under a sparsity assumption, we show that a subset that includes the true submodel always yields smaller residual sum of squares (i.e., has better model fitting) than all that do not in a general asymptotic setting. This indicates that, for screening important variables, we could follow a "better fitting, better screening" rule, i.e., pick a "better" subset that has better model fitting. To seek such a better subset, we consider the optimization problem associated with best subset regression. An EM algorithm, called orthogonalizing subset screening, and its accelerating version are proposed for searching for the best subset. Although the two algorithms cannot guarantee that a subset they yield is the best, their monotonicity property makes the subset have better model fitting than initial subsets generated by popular screening methods, and thus the subset can have better screening performance asymptotically. Simulation results show that our methods are very competitive in high dimensional variable screening even for finite sample sizes.
Generalization Bounds for Metric and Similarity Learning
Cao, Qiong, Guo, Zheng-Chu, Ying, Yiming
Recently, metric learning and similarity learning have attracted a large amount of interest. Many models and optimisation algorithms have been proposed. However, there is relatively little work on the generalization analysis of such methods. In this paper, we derive novel generalization bounds of metric and similarity learning. In particular, we first show that the generalization analysis reduces to the estimation of the Rademacher average over "sums-of-i.i.d." sample-blocks related to the specific matrix norm. Then, we derive generalization bounds for metric/similarity learning with different matrix-norm regularisers by estimating their specific Rademacher complexities. Our analysis indicates that sparse metric/similarity learning with $L^1$-norm regularisation could lead to significantly better bounds than those with Frobenius-norm regularisation. Our novel generalization analysis develops and refines the techniques of U-statistics and Rademacher complexity analysis.
$l_{2,p}$ Matrix Norm and Its Application in Feature Selection
Recently, $l_{2,1}$ matrix norm has been widely applied to many areas such as computer vision, pattern recognition, biological study and etc. As an extension of $l_1$ vector norm, the mixed $l_{2,1}$ matrix norm is often used to find jointly sparse solutions. Moreover, an efficient iterative algorithm has been designed to solve $l_{2,1}$-norm involved minimizations. Actually, computational studies have showed that $l_p$-regularization ($0
Sparse estimation via nonconcave penalized likelihood in a factor analysis model
We consider the problem of sparse estimation in a factor analysis model. A traditional estimation procedure in use is the following two-step approach: the model is estimated by maximum likelihood method and then a rotation technique is utilized to find sparse factor loadings. However, the maximum likelihood estimates cannot be obtained when the number of variables is much larger than the number of observations. Furthermore, even if the maximum likelihood estimates are available, the rotation technique does not often produce a sufficiently sparse solution. In order to handle these problems, this paper introduces a penalized likelihood procedure that imposes a nonconvex penalty on the factor loadings. We show that the penalized likelihood procedure can be viewed as a generalization of the traditional two-step approach, and the proposed methodology can produce sparser solutions than the rotation technique. A new algorithm via the EM algorithm along with coordinate descent is introduced to compute the entire solution path, which permits the application to a wide variety of convex and nonconvex penalties. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to investigate the performance of our modeling strategy. A real data example is also given to illustrate our procedure.