Statistical Learning
MLI: An API for Distributed Machine Learning
Sparks, Evan R., Talwalkar, Ameet, Smith, Virginia, Kottalam, Jey, Pan, Xinghao, Gonzalez, Joseph, Franklin, Michael J., Jordan, Michael I., Kraska, Tim
MLI is an Application Programming Interface designed to address the challenges of building Machine Learn- ing algorithms in a distributed setting based on data-centric computing. Its primary goal is to simplify the development of high-performance, scalable, distributed algorithms. Our initial results show that, relative to existing systems, this interface can be used to build distributed implementations of a wide variety of common Machine Learning algorithms with minimal complexity and highly competitive performance and scalability.
Predicting the NFL using Twitter
Sinha, Shiladitya, Dyer, Chris, Gimpel, Kevin, Smith, Noah A.
We study the relationship between social media output and National Football League (NFL) games, using a dataset containing messages from Twitter and NFL game statistics. Specifically, we consider tweets pertaining to specific teams and games in the NFL season and use them alongside statistical game data to build predictive models for future game outcomes (which team will win?) and sports betting outcomes (which team will win with the point spread? will the total points be over/under the line?). We experiment with several feature sets and find that simple features using large volumes of tweets can match or exceed the performance of more traditional features that use game statistics.
Randomized co-training: from cortical neurons to machine learning and back again
Despite its size and complexity, the human cortex exhibits striking anatomical regularities, suggesting there may simple meta-algorithms underlying cortical learning and computation. We expect such meta-algorithms to be of interest since they need to operate quickly, scalably and effectively with little-to-no specialized assumptions. This note focuses on a specific question: How can neurons use vast quantities of unlabeled data to speed up learning from the comparatively rare labels provided by reward systems? As a partial answer, we propose randomized co-training as a biologically plausible meta-algorithm satisfying the above requirements. As evidence, we describe a biologically-inspired algorithm, Correlated Nystrom Views (XNV) that achieves state-of-the-art performance in semi-supervised learning, and sketch work in progress on a neuronal implementation.
A Tensor Approach to Learning Mixed Membership Community Models
Anandkumar, Anima, Ge, Rong, Hsu, Daniel, Kakade, Sham M.
Community detection is the task of detecting hidden communities from observed interactions. Guaranteed community detection has so far been mostly limited to models with non-overlapping communities such as the stochastic block model. In this paper, we remove this restriction, and provide guaranteed community detection for a family of probabilistic network models with overlapping communities, termed as the mixed membership Dirichlet model, first introduced by Airoldi et al. This model allows for nodes to have fractional memberships in multiple communities and assumes that the community memberships are drawn from a Dirichlet distribution. Moreover, it contains the stochastic block model as a special case. We propose a unified approach to learning these models via a tensor spectral decomposition method. Our estimator is based on low-order moment tensor of the observed network, consisting of 3-star counts. Our learning method is fast and is based on simple linear algebraic operations, e.g. singular value decomposition and tensor power iterations. We provide guaranteed recovery of community memberships and model parameters and present a careful finite sample analysis of our learning method. As an important special case, our results match the best known scaling requirements for the (homogeneous) stochastic block model.
Active Learning of Linear Embeddings for Gaussian Processes
Garnett, Roman, Osborne, Michael A., Hennig, Philipp
We propose an active learning method for discovering low-dimensional structure in high-dimensional Gaussian process (GP) tasks. Such problems are increasingly frequent and important, but have hitherto presented severe practical difficulties. We further introduce a novel technique for approximately marginalizing GP hyperparameters, yielding marginal predictions robust to hyperparameter mis-specification. Our method offers an efficient means of performing GP regression, quadrature, or Bayesian optimization in high-dimensional spaces.
Sparse Predictive Structure of Deconvolved Functional Brain Networks
Furlanello, Tommaso, Cristoforetti, Marco, Furlanello, Cesare, Jurman, Giuseppe
The functional and structural representation of the brain as a complex network is marked by the fact that the comparison of noisy and intrinsically correlated high-dimensional structures between experimental conditions or groups shuns typical mass univariate methods. Furthermore most network estimation methods cannot distinguish between real and spurious correlation arising from the convolution due to nodes' interaction, which thus introduces additional noise in the data. We propose a machine learning pipeline aimed at identifying multivariate differences between brain networks associated to different experimental conditions. The pipeline (1) leverages the deconvolved individual contribution of each edge and (2) maps the task into a sparse classification problem in order to construct the associated "sparse deconvolved predictive network", i.e., a graph with the same nodes of those compared but whose edge weights are defined by their relevance for out of sample predictions in classification. We present an application of the proposed method by decoding the covert attention direction (left or right) based on the single-trial functional connectivity matrix extracted from high-frequency magnetoencephalography (MEG) data. Our results demonstrate how network deconvolution matched with sparse classification methods outperforms typical approaches for MEG decoding.
Spatial-Spectral Boosting Analysis for Stroke Patients' Motor Imagery EEG in Rehabilitation Training
Current studies about motor imagery based rehabilitation training systems for stroke subjects lack an appropriate analytic method, which can achieve a considerable classification accuracy, at the same time detects gradual changes of imagery patterns during rehabilitation process and disinters potential mechanisms about motor function recovery. In this study, we propose an adaptive boosting algorithm based on the cortex plasticity and spectral band shifts. This approach models the usually predetermined spatial-spectral configurations in EEG study into variable preconditions, and introduces a new heuristic of stochastic gradient boost for training base learners under these preconditions. We compare our proposed algorithm with commonly used methods on datasets collected from 2 months' clinical experiments. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in detecting the variations of stroke patients' EEG patterns. By chronologically reorganizing the weight parameters of the learned additive model, we verify the spatial compensatory mechanism on impaired cortex and detect the changes of accentuation bands in spectral domain, which may contribute important prior knowledge for rehabilitation practice.
Multiple Kernel Learning for Brain-Computer Interfacing
Samek, Wojciech, Binder, Alexander, Mรผller, Klaus-Robert
Combining information from different sources is a common way to improve classification accuracy in Brain-Computer Interfacing (BCI). For instance, in small sample settings it is useful to integrate data from other subjects or sessions in order to improve the estimation quality of the spatial filters or the classifier. Since data from different subjects may show large variability, it is crucial to weight the contributions according to importance. Many multi-subject learning algorithms determine the optimal weighting in a separate step by using heuristics, however, without ensuring that the selected weights are optimal with respect to classification. In this work we apply Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) to this problem. MKL has been widely used for feature fusion in computer vision and allows to simultaneously learn the classifier and the optimal weighting. We compare the MKL method to two baseline approaches and investigate the reasons for performance improvement.
Combined l_1 and greedy l_0 penalized least squares for linear model selection
Pokarowski, Piotr, Mielniczuk, Jan
We introduce a computationally effective algorithm for a linear model selection consisting of three steps: screening--ordering--selection (SOS). Screening of predictors is based on the thresholded Lasso that is l_1 penalized least squares. The screened predictors are then fitted using least squares (LS) and ordered with respect to their t statistics. Finally, a model is selected using greedy generalized information criterion (GIC) that is l_0 penalized LS in a nested family induced by the ordering. We give non-asymptotic upper bounds on error probability of each step of the SOS algorithm in terms of both penalties. Then we obtain selection consistency for different (n, p) scenarios under conditions which are needed for screening consistency of the Lasso. For the traditional setting (n >p) we give Sanov-type bounds on the error probabilities of the ordering--selection algorithm. Its surprising consequence is that the selection error of greedy GIC is asymptotically not larger than of exhaustive GIC. We also obtain new bounds on prediction and estimation errors for the Lasso which are proved in parallel for the algorithm used in practice and its formal version.
Optimally fuzzy temporal memory
Shankar, Karthik H., Howard, Marc W.
Any learner with the ability to predict the future of a structured time-varying signal must maintain a memory of the recent past. If the signal has a characteristic timescale relevant to future prediction, the memory can be a simple shift register---a moving window extending into the past, requiring storage resources that linearly grows with the timescale to be represented. However, an independent general purpose learner cannot a priori know the characteristic prediction-relevant timescale of the signal. Moreover, many naturally occurring signals show scale-free long range correlations implying that the natural prediction-relevant timescale is essentially unbounded. Hence the learner should maintain information from the longest possible timescale allowed by resource availability. Here we construct a fuzzy memory system that optimally sacrifices the temporal accuracy of information in a scale-free fashion in order to represent prediction-relevant information from exponentially long timescales. Using several illustrative examples, we demonstrate the advantage of the fuzzy memory system over a shift register in time series forecasting of natural signals. When the available storage resources are limited, we suggest that a general purpose learner would be better off committing to such a fuzzy memory system.