We consider a regression setting where observations are collected in different environments modeled by different data distributions. The field of out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization aims to design methods that generalize better to test environments whose distributions differ from those observed during training. One line of such works has proposed to minimize the maximum risk across environments, a principle that we refer to as MaxRM (Maximum Risk Minimization). In this work, we introduce variants of random forests based on the principle of MaxRM. We provide computationally efficient algorithms and prove statistical consistency for our primary method. Our proposed method can be used with each of the following three risks: the mean squared error, the negative reward (which relates to the explained variance), and the regret (which quantifies the excess risk relative to the best predictor). For MaxRM with regret as the risk, we prove a novel out-of-sample guarantee over unseen test distributions. Finally, we evaluate the proposed methods on both simulated and real-world data.

This paper is concerned with differentiable resampling in the context of sequential Monte Carlo (e.g., particle filtering). We propose a new informative resampling method that is instantly pathwise differentiable, based on an ensemble score diffusion model. We prove that our diffusion resampling method provides a consistent estimate to the resampling distribution, and we show by experiments that it outperforms the state-of-the-art differentiable resampling methods when used for stochastic filtering and parameter estimation.

The property of learning-curve monotonicity, highlighted in a recent series of work by Loog, Mey and Viering, describes algorithms which only improve in average performance given more data, for any underlying data distribution within a given family. We establish the first nontrivial monotonicity guarantees for the maximum likelihood estimator in a variety of well-specified parametric settings. For sequential prediction with log loss, we show monotonicity (in fact complete monotonicity) of the forward KL divergence for Gaussian vectors with unknown covariance and either known or unknown mean, as well as for Gamma variables with unknown scale parameter. The Gaussian setting was explicitly highlighted as open in the aforementioned works, even in dimension 1. Finally we observe that for reverse KL divergence, a folklore trick yields monotonicity for very general exponential families. All results in this paper were derived by variants of GPT-5.2 Pro. Humans did not provide any proof strategies or intermediate arguments, but only prompted the model to continue developing additional results, and verified and transcribed its proofs.

We analyze gradient descent with randomly weighted data points in a linear regression model, under a generic weighting distribution. This includes various forms of stochastic gradient descent, importance sampling, but also extends to weighting distributions with arbitrary continuous values, thereby providing a unified framework to analyze the impact of various kinds of noise on the training trajectory. We characterize the implicit regularization induced through the random weighting, connect it with weighted linear regression, and derive non-asymptotic bounds for convergence in first and second moments. Leveraging geometric moment contraction, we also investigate the stationary distribution induced by the added noise. Based on these results, we discuss how specific choices of weighting distribution influence both the underlying optimization problem and statistical properties of the resulting estimator, as well as some examples for which weightings that lead to fast convergence cause bad statistical performance.

Topology identification and inference of processes evolving over graphs arise in timely applications involving brain, transportation, financial, power, as well as social and information networks. This chapter provides an overview of graph topology identification and statistical inference methods for multidimensional relational data. Approaches for undirected links connecting graph nodes are outlined, going all the way from correlation metrics to covariance selection, and revealing ties with smooth signal priors. To account for directional (possibly causal) relations among nodal variables and address the limitations of linear time-invariant models in handling dynamic as well as nonlinear dependencies, a principled framework is surveyed to capture these complexities through judiciously selected kernels from a prescribed dictionary. Generalizations are also described via structural equations and vector autoregressions that can exploit attributes such as low rank, sparsity, acyclicity, and smoothness to model dynamic processes over possibly time-evolving topologies. It is argued that this approach supports both batch and online learning algorithms with convergence rate guarantees, is amenable to tensor (that is, multi-way array) formulations as well as decompositions that are well-suited for multidimensional network data, and can seamlessly leverage high-order statistical information.

3D shape completion methods typically assume scans are pre-aligned to a canonical frame. This leaks pose and scale cues that networks may exploit to memorize absolute positions rather than inferring intrinsic geometry. When such alignment is absent in real data, performance collapses. We argue that robust generalization demands architectural equivariance to the similarity group, SIM(3), so the model remains agnostic to pose and scale. Following this principle, we introduce the first SIM(3)-equivariant shape completion network, whose modular layers successively canonicalize features, reason over similarity-invariant geometry, and restore the original frame. Under a de-biased evaluation protocol that removes the hidden cues, our model outperforms both equivariant and augmentation baselines on the PCN benchmark. It also sets new cross-domain records on real driving and indoor scans, lowering minimal matching distance on KITTI by 17% and Chamfer distance $\ell1$ on OmniObject3D by 14%. Perhaps surprisingly, ours under the stricter protocol still outperforms competitors under their biased settings. These results establish full SIM(3) equivariance as an effective route to truly generalizable shape completion. Project page: https://sime-completion.github.io.

Hyperparameter tuning is one of the essential steps to guarantee the convergence of machine learning models. We argue that intuition about the optimal choice of hyperparameters for stochastic gradient descent can be obtained by studying a neural network's phase diagram, in which each phase is characterised by distinctive dynamics of the singular values of weight matrices. Taking inspiration from disordered systems, we start from the observation that the loss landscape of a multilayer neural network with mean squared error can be interpreted as a disordered system in feature space, where the learnt features are mapped to soft spin degrees of freedom, the initial variance of the weight matrices is interpreted as the strength of the disorder, and temperature is given by the ratio of the learning rate and the batch size. As the model is trained, three phases can be identified, in which the dynamics of weight matrices is qualitatively different. Employing a Langevin equation for stochastic gradient descent, previously derived using Dyson Brownian motion, we demonstrate that the three dynamical regimes can be classified effectively, providing practical guidance for the choice of hyperparameters of the optimiser.

Transfer Learning (TL) is currently the most effective approach for modeling building thermal dynamics when only limited data are available. TL uses a pretrained model that is fine-tuned to a specific target building. However, it remains unclear how to proceed after initial fine-tuning, as more operational measurement data are collected over time. This challenge becomes even more complex when the dynamics of the building change, for example, after a retrofit or a change in occupancy. In Machine Learning literature, Continual Learning (CL) methods are used to update models of changing systems. TL approaches can also address this challenge by reusing the pretrained model at each update step and fine-tuning it with new measurement data. A comprehensive study on how to incorporate new measurement data over time to improve prediction accuracy and address the challenges of concept drifts (changes in dynamics) for building thermal dynamics is still missing. Therefore, this study compares several CL and TL strategies, as well as a model trained from scratch, for thermal dynamics modeling during building operation. The methods are evaluated using 5--7 years of simulated data representative of single-family houses in Central Europe, including scenarios with concept drifts from retrofits and changes in occupancy. We propose a CL strategy (Seasonal Memory Learning) that provides greater accuracy improvements than existing CL and TL methods, while maintaining low computational effort. SML outperformed the benchmark of initial fine-tuning by 28.1\% without concept drifts and 34.9\% with concept drifts.

Human-object interaction segmentation is a fundamental task of daily activity understanding, which plays a crucial role in applications such as assistive robotics, healthcare, and autonomous systems. Most existing learning-based methods excel in closed-world action segmentation, they struggle to generalize to open-world scenarios where novel actions emerge. Collecting exhaustive action categories for training is impractical due to the dynamic diversity of human activities, necessitating models that detect and segment out-of-distribution actions without manual annotation. To address this issue, we formally define the open-world action segmentation problem and propose a structured framework for detecting and segmenting unseen actions. Our framework introduces three key innovations: 1) an Enhanced Pyramid Graph Convolutional Network (EPGCN) with a novel decoder module for robust spatiotemporal feature upsampling. 2) Mixup-based training to synthesize out-of-distribution data, eliminating reliance on manual annotations. 3) A novel Temporal Clustering loss that groups in-distribution actions while distancing out-of-distribution samples. We evaluate our framework on two challenging human-object interaction recognition datasets: Bimanual Actions and 2 Hands and Object (H2O) datasets. Experimental results demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art action segmentation models across multiple open-set evaluation metrics, achieving 16.9% and 34.6% relative gains in open-set segmentation (F1@50) and out-of-distribution detection performances (AUROC), respectively. Additionally, we conduct an in-depth ablation study to assess the impact of each proposed component, identifying the optimal framework configuration for open-world action segmentation.

SHallow REcurrent Decoders (SHRED) are effective for system identification and forecasting from sparse sensor measurements. Such models are light-weight and computationally efficient, allowing them to be trained on consumer laptops. SHRED-based models rely on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and a simple Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) for the temporal encoding and spatial decoding respectively. Despite the relatively simple structure of SHRED, they are able to predict chaotic dynamical systems on different physical, spatial, and temporal scales directly from a sparse set of sensor measurements. In this work, we modify SHRED by leveraging transformers (T-SHRED) embedded with symbolic regression for the temporal encoding, circumventing auto-regressive long-term forecasting for physical data. This is achieved through a new sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) attention mechanism into T-SHRED to impose sparsity regularization on the latent space, which also allows for immediate symbolic interpretation. Symbolic regression improves model interpretability by learning and regularizing the dynamics of the latent space during training. We analyze the performance of T-SHRED on three different dynamical systems ranging from low-data to high-data regimes.