For data assumed to come from a finite mixture with an unknown number of components, ithas become common to use Dirichlet process mixtures (DPMs) not only for density estimation, but also for inferences about the number of components. Thetypical approach is to use the posterior distribution on the number of clusters -- that is, the posterior on the number of components represented in the observed data. However, it turns out that this posterior is not consistent -- it does not concentrate at the true number of components. In this note, we give an elementary proofof this inconsistency in what is perhaps the simplest possible setting: a DPM with normal components of unit variance, applied to data from a "mixture" with one standard normal component. Further, we show that this example exhibits severe inconsistency: instead of going to 1, the posterior probability that there is one cluster converges (in probability) to 0.

We use the notion of local Rademacher complexity to design new algorithms for learning kernels. Our algorithms thereby benefit from the sharper learning bounds based on that notion which, under certain general conditions, guarantee a faster convergence rate. We devise two new learning kernel algorithms: one based on a convex optimization problem for which we give an efficient solution using existing learning kernel techniques, and another one that can be formulated as a DC-programming problem for which we describe a solution in detail. We also report the results of experiments with both algorithms in both binary and multi-class classification tasks.

We present the first result for kernel regression where the procedure adapts locally at a point x to both the unknown local dimension of the metric space X and the unknown Hölder-continuity of the regression function at x. The result holds with high probability simultaneously at all points x in a general metric space X of unknown structure.

Penalized M-estimators are used in diverse areas of science and engineering to fit high-dimensional models with some low-dimensional structure. Often, the penalties are \emph{geometrically decomposable}, \ie\ can be expressed as a sum of (convex) support functions. We generalize the notion of irrepresentable to geometrically decomposable penalties and develop a general framework for establishing consistency and model selection consistency of M-estimators with such penalties. We then use this framework to derive results for some special cases of interest in bioinformatics and statistical learning.

Multiple hypothesis testing is a significant problem in nearly all neuroimaging studies. In order to correct for this phenomena, we require a reliable estimate of the Family-Wise Error Rate (FWER). The well known Bonferroni correction method, while being simple to implement, is quite conservative, and can substantially under-power a study because it ignores dependencies between test statistics. Permutation testing, on the other hand, is an exact, non parametric method of estimating the FWER for a given α threshold, but for acceptably low thresholds the computational burden can be prohibitive. In this paper, we observe that permutation testing in fact amounts to populating the columns of a very large matrix P. By analyzing the spectrum of this matrix, under certain conditions, we see that P has a low-rank plus a low-variance residual decomposition which makes it suitable for highly sub–sampled — on the order of 0.5% — matrix completion methods. Thus, we propose a novel permutation testing methodology which offers a large speedup, without sacrificing the fidelity of the estimated FWER. Our valuations on four different neuroimaging datasets show that a computational speedup factor of roughly 50× can be achieved while recovering the FWER distribution up to very high accuracy. Further, we show that the estimated α threshold is also recovered faithfully, and is stable.

We establish theoretical results concerning all local optima of various regularized M-estimators, where both loss and penalty functions are allowed to be nonconvex. Our results show that as long as the loss function satisfies restricted strong convexity and the penalty function satisfies suitable regularity conditions, any local optimum of the composite objective function lies within statistical precision of the true parameter vector. Our theory covers a broad class of nonconvex objective functions, including corrected versions of the Lasso for errors-in-variables linear models; regression in generalized linear models using nonconvex regularizers such as SCAD and MCP; and graph and inverse covariance matrix estimation. On the optimization side, we show that a simple adaptation of composite gradient descent may be used to compute a global optimum up to the statistical precision epsilon in log(1/epsilon) iterations, which is the fastest possible rate of any first-order method. We provide a variety of simulations to illustrate the sharpness of our theoretical predictions.

We introduce a nonparametric approach for estimating drift functions in systems of stochastic differential equations from incomplete observations of the state vector. Using a Gaussian process prior over the drift as a function of the state vector, we develop an approximate EM algorithm to deal with the unobserved, latent dynamics between observations. The posterior over states is approximated by a piecewise linearized process and the MAP estimation of the drift is facilitated by a sparse Gaussian process regression.

In the high-dimensional regression model a response variable is linearly related to $p$ covariates, but the sample size $n$ is smaller than $p$. We assume that only a small subset of covariates is `active' (i.e., the corresponding coefficients are non-zero), and consider the model-selection problem of identifying the active covariates. A popular approach is to estimate the regression coefficients through the Lasso ($\ell_1$-regularized least squares). This is known to correctly identify the active set only if the irrelevant covariates are roughly orthogonal to the relevant ones, as quantified through the so called `irrepresentability' condition. In this paper we study the `Gauss-Lasso' selector, a simple two-stage method that first solves the Lasso, and then performs ordinary least squares restricted to the Lasso active set. We formulate `generalized irrepresentability condition' (GIC), an assumption that is substantially weaker than irrepresentability. We prove that, under GIC, the Gauss-Lasso correctly recovers the active set.

We introduce a novel variational method that allows to approximately integrate out kernel hyperparameters, such as length-scales, in Gaussian process regression. This approach consists of a novel variant of the variational framework that has been recently developed for the Gaussian process latent variable model which additionally makes use of a standardised representation of the Gaussian process. We consider this technique for learning Mahalanobis distance metrics in a Gaussian process regression setting and provide experimental evaluations and comparisons with existing methods by considering datasets with high-dimensional inputs.

We address the problem of estimating the ratio $\frac{q}{p}$ where $p$ is a density function and $q$ is another density, or, more generally an arbitrary function. Knowing or approximating this ratio is needed in various problems of inference and integration, in particular, when one needs to average a function with respect to one probability distribution, given a sample from another. It is often referred as {\it importance sampling} in statistical inference and is also closely related to the problem of {\it covariate shift} in transfer learning as well as to various MCMC methods. Our approach is based on reformulating the problem of estimating the ratio as an inverse problem in terms of an integral operator corresponding to a kernel, and thus reducing it to an integral equation, known as the Fredholm problem of the first kind. This formulation, combined with the techniques of regularization and kernel methods, leads to a principled kernel-based framework for constructing algorithms and for analyzing them theoretically. The resulting family of algorithms (FIRE, for Fredholm Inverse Regularized Estimator) is flexible, simple and easy to implement. We provide detailed theoretical analysis including concentration bounds and convergence rates for the Gaussian kernel for densities defined on $\R^d$ and smooth $d$-dimensional sub-manifolds of the Euclidean space. Model selection for unsupervised or semi-supervised inference is generally a difficult problem. Interestingly, it turns out that in the density ratio estimation setting, when samples from both distributions are available, there are simple completely unsupervised methods for choosing parameters. We call this model selection mechanism CD-CV for Cross-Density Cross-Validation. Finally, we show encouraging experimental results including applications to classification within the covariate shift framework.