Many scientific data occur as sequences of multidimensional arrays called tensors. How can hidden, evolving trends in such data be extracted while preserving the tensor structure? The model that is traditionally used is the linear dynamical system (LDS), which treats the observation at each time slice as a vector. In this paper, we propose the multilinear dynamical system (MLDS) for modeling tensor time series and an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters. The MLDS models each time slice of the tensor time series as the multilinear projection of a corresponding member of a sequence of latent, low-dimensional tensors. Compared to the LDS with an equal number of parameters, the MLDS achieves higher prediction accuracy and marginal likelihood for both simulated and real datasets.

This paper addresses the problem of unsupervised feature learning for text data. Our method is grounded in the principle of minimum description length and uses a dictionary-based compression scheme to extract a succinct feature set. Specifically, our method finds a set of word $k$-grams that minimizes the cost of reconstructing the text losslessly. We formulate document compression as a binary optimization task and show how to solve it approximately via a sequence of reweighted linear programs that are efficient to solve and parallelizable. As our method is unsupervised, features may be extracted once and subsequently used in a variety of tasks. We demonstrate the performance of these features over a range of scenarios including unsupervised exploratory analysis and supervised text categorization. Our compressed feature space is two orders of magnitude smaller than the full $k$-gram space and matches the text categorization accuracy achieved in the full feature space. This dimensionality reduction not only results in faster training times, but it can also help elucidate structure in unsupervised learning tasks and reduce the amount of training data necessary for supervised learning.

Imaging neuroscience links brain activation maps to behavior and cognition via correlational studies. Due to the nature of the individual experiments, based on eliciting neural response from a small number of stimuli, this link is incomplete, and unidirectional from the causal point of view. To come to conclusions on the function implied by the activation of brain regions, it is necessary to combine a wide exploration of the various brain functions and some inversion of the statistical inference. Here we introduce a methodology for accumulating knowledge towards a bidirectional link between observed brain activity and the corresponding function. We rely on a large corpus of imaging studies and a predictive engine. Technically, the challenges are to find commonality between the studies without denaturing the richness of the corpus. The key elements that we contribute are labeling the tasks performed with a cognitive ontology, and modeling the long tail of rare paradigms in the corpus. To our knowledge, our approach is the first demonstration of predicting the cognitive content of completely new brain images. To that end, we propose a method that predicts the experimental paradigms across different studies.

Continuous-valued word embeddings learned by neural language models have recently been shown to capture semantic and syntactic information about words very well, setting performance records on several word similarity tasks. The best results are obtained by learning high-dimensional embeddings from very large quantities of data, which makes scalability of the training method a critical factor. We propose a simple and scalable new approach to learning word embeddings based on training log-bilinear models with noise-contrastive estimation. Our approach is simpler, faster, and produces better results than the current state-of-the art method of Mikolov et al. (2013a). We achieve results comparable to the best ones reported, which were obtained on a cluster, using four times less data and more than an order of magnitude less computing time. We also investigate several model types and find that the embeddings learned by the simpler models perform at least as well as those learned by the more complex ones.

We present and study a distributed optimization algorithm by employing a stochastic dual coordinate ascent method. Stochastic dual coordinate ascent methods enjoy strong theoretical guarantees and often have better performances than stochastic gradient descent methods in optimizing regularized loss minimization problems. It still lacks of efforts in studying them in a distributed framework. We make a progress along the line by presenting a distributed stochastic dual coordinate ascent algorithm in a star network, with an analysis of the tradeoff between computation and communication. We verify our analysis by experiments on real data sets. Moreover, we compare the proposed algorithm with distributed stochastic gradient descent methods and distributed alternating direction methods of multipliers for optimizing SVMs in the same distributed framework, and observe competitive performances.

Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs) or Gauss Markov random fields are widely used in many applications, and the trade-off between the modeling capacity and the efficiency of learning and inference has been an important research problem. In this paper, we study the family of GGMs with small feedback vertex sets (FVSs), where an FVS is a set of nodes whose removal breaks all the cycles. Exact inference such as computing the marginal distributions and the partition function has complexity $O(k^{2}n)$ using message-passing algorithms, where k is the size of the FVS, and n is the total number of nodes. We propose efficient structure learning algorithms for two cases: 1) All nodes are observed, which is useful in modeling social or flight networks where the FVS nodes often correspond to a small number of high-degree nodes, or hubs, while the rest of the networks is modeled by a tree. Regardless of the maximum degree, without knowing the full graph structure, we can exactly compute the maximum likelihood estimate in $O(kn^2+n^2\log n)$ if the FVS is known or in polynomial time if the FVS is unknown but has bounded size. 2) The FVS nodes are latent variables, where structure learning is equivalent to decomposing a inverse covariance matrix (exactly or approximately) into the sum of a tree-structured matrix and a low-rank matrix. By incorporating efficient inference into the learning steps, we can obtain a learning algorithm using alternating low-rank correction with complexity $O(kn^{2}+n^{2}\log n)$ per iteration. We also perform experiments using both synthetic data as well as real data of flight delays to demonstrate the modeling capacity with FVSs of various sizes. We show that empirically the family of GGMs of size $O(\log n)$ strikes a good balance between the modeling capacity and the efficiency.

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference and learning in nonlinear nonparametric state-space models. We place a Gaussian process prior over the transition dynamics, resulting in a flexible model able to capture complex dynamical phenomena. However, to enable efficient inference, we marginalize over the dynamics of the model and instead infer directly the joint smoothing distribution through the use of specially tailored Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo samplers. Once an approximation of the smoothing distribution is computed, the state transition predictive distribution can be formulated analytically. We make use of sparse Gaussian process models to greatly reduce the computational complexity of the approach.

Undirected graphical models, such as Gaussian graphical models, Ising, and multinomial/categorical graphical models, are widely used in a variety of applications for modeling distributions over a large number of variables. These standard instances, however, are ill-suited to modeling count data, which are increasingly ubiquitous in big-data settings such as genomic sequencing data, user-ratings data, spatial incidence data, climate studies, and site visits. Existing classes of Poisson graphical models, which arise as the joint distributions that correspond to Poisson distributed node-conditional distributions, have a major drawback: they can only model negative conditional dependencies for reasons of normalizability given its infinite domain. In this paper, our objective is to modify the Poisson graphical model distribution so that it can capture a rich dependence structure between count-valued variables. We begin by discussing two strategies for truncating the Poisson distribution and show that only one of these leads to a valid joint distribution; even this model, however, has limitations on the types of variables and dependencies that may be modeled. To address this, we propose two novel variants of the Poisson distribution and their corresponding joint graphical model distributions. These models provide a class of Poisson graphical models that can capture both positive and negative conditional dependencies between count-valued variables. One can learn the graph structure of our model via penalized neighborhood selection, and we demonstrate the performance of our methods by learning simulated networks as well as a network from microRNA-Sequencing data.

We investigate the relationship between three fundamental problems in machine learning: binary classification, bipartite ranking, and binary class probability estimation (CPE). It is known that a good binary CPE model can be used to obtain a good binary classification model (by thresholding at 0.5), and also to obtain a good bipartite ranking model (by using the CPE model directly as a ranking model); it is also known that a binary classification model does not necessarily yield a CPE model. However, not much is known about other directions. Formally, these relationships involve regret transfer bounds. In this paper, we introduce the notion of weak regret transfer bounds, where the mapping needed to transform a model from one problem to another depends on the underlying probability distribution (and in practice, must be estimated from data). We then show that, in this weaker sense, a good bipartite ranking model can be used to construct a good classification model (by thresholding at a suitable point), and more surprisingly, also to construct a good binary CPE model (by calibrating the scores of the ranking model).

We propose a model for demand estimation in multi-agent, differentiated product settings and present an estimation algorithm that uses reversible jump MCMC techniques to classify agents' types. Our model extends the popular setup in Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995) to allow for the data-driven classification of agents' types using agent-level data. We focus on applications involving data on agents' ranking over alternatives, and present theoretical conditions that establish the identifiability of the model and uni-modality of the likelihood/posterior. Results on both real and simulated data provide support for the scalability of our approach.