We establish optimal rates for online regression for arbitrary classes of regression functions in terms of the sequential entropy introduced in (Rakhlin, Sridharan, Tewari, 2010). The optimal rates are shown to exhibit a phase transition analogous to the i.i.d./statistical learning case, studied in (Rakhlin, Sridharan, Tsybakov 2013). In the frequently encountered situation when sequential entropy and i.i.d. empirical entropy match, our results point to the interesting phenomenon that the rates for statistical learning with squared loss and online nonparametric regression are the same. In addition to a non-algorithmic study of minimax regret, we exhibit a generic forecaster that enjoys the established optimal rates. We also provide a recipe for designing online regression algorithms that can be computationally efficient. We illustrate the techniques by deriving existing and new forecasters for the case of finite experts and for online linear regression.

Kernel adaptive filters (KAF) are a class of powerful nonlinear filters developed in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). The Gaussian kernel is usually the default kernel in KAF algorithms, but selecting the proper kernel size (bandwidth) is still an open important issue especially for learning with small sample sizes. In previous research, the kernel size was set manually or estimated in advance by Silvermans rule based on the sample distribution. This study aims to develop an online technique for optimizing the kernel size of the kernel least mean square (KLMS) algorithm. A sequential optimization strategy is proposed, and a new algorithm is developed, in which the filter weights and the kernel size are both sequentially updated by stochastic gradient algorithms that minimize the mean square error (MSE). Theoretical results on convergence are also presented. The excellent performance of the new algorithm is confirmed by simulations on static function estimation and short term chaotic time series prediction.

Practical model building processes are often time-consuming because many different models must be trained and validated. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm that can be used for computing the lower and the upper bounds of model validation errors without actually training the model itself. A key idea behind our algorithm is using a side information available from a suboptimal model. If a reasonably good suboptimal model is available, our algorithm can compute lower and upper bounds of many useful quantities for making inferences on the unknown target model. We demonstrate the advantage of our algorithm in the context of model selection for regularized learning problems.

We consider the task of learning to extract motion from videos. To this end, we show that the detection of spatial transformations can be viewed as the detection of synchrony between the image sequence and a sequence of features undergoing the motion we wish to detect. We show that learning about synchrony is possible using very fast, local learning rules, by introducing multiplicative "gating" interactions between hidden units across frames. This makes it possible to achieve competitive performance in a wide variety of motion estimation tasks, using a small fraction of the time required to learn features, and to outperform hand-crafted spatio-temporal features by a large margin. We also show how learning about synchrony can be viewed as performing greedy parameter estimation in the well-known motion energy model.

The amount of information in the form of features and variables avail- able to machine learning algorithms is ever increasing. This can lead to classifiers that are prone to overfitting in high dimensions, high di- mensional models do not lend themselves to interpretable results, and the CPU and memory resources necessary to run on high-dimensional datasets severly limit the applications of the approaches. Variable and feature selection aim to remedy this by finding a subset of features that in some way captures the information provided best. In this paper we present the general methodology and highlight some specific approaches.

In plant and animal breeding studies a distinction is made between the genetic value (additive + epistatic genetic effects) and the breeding value (additive genetic effects) of an individual since it is expected that some of the epistatic genetic effects will be lost due to recombination. In this paper, we argue that the breeder can take advantage of some of the epistatic marker effects in regions of low recombination. The models introduced here aim to estimate local epistatic line heritability by using the genetic map information and combine the local additive and epistatic effects. To this end, we have used semi-parametric mixed models with multiple local genomic relationship matrices with hierarchical designs and lasso post-processing for sparsity in the final model. Our models produce good predictive performance along with good explanatory information.

The overarching goal of this paper is to derive excess risk bounds for learning from exp-concave loss functions in passive and sequential learning settings. Exp-concave loss functions encompass several fundamental problems in machine learning such as squared loss in linear regression, logistic loss in classification, and negative logarithm loss in portfolio management. In batch setting, we obtain sharp bounds on the performance of empirical risk minimization performed in a linear hypothesis space and with respect to the exp-concave loss functions. We also extend the results to the online setting where the learner receives the training examples in a sequential manner. We propose an online learning algorithm that is a properly modified version of online Newton method to obtain sharp risk bounds. Under an additional mild assumption on the loss function, we show that in both settings we are able to achieve an excess risk bound of $O(d\log n/n)$ that holds with a high probability.

This paper formalizes a latent variable inference problem we call {\em supervised pattern discovery}, the goal of which is to find sets of observations that belong to a single ``pattern.'' We discuss two versions of the problem and prove uniform risk bounds for both. In the first version, collections of patterns can be generated in an arbitrary manner and the data consist of multiple labeled collections. In the second version, the patterns are assumed to be generated independently by identically distributed processes. These processes are allowed to take an arbitrary form, so observations within a pattern are not in general independent of each other. The bounds for the second version of the problem are stated in terms of a new complexity measure, the quasi-Rademacher complexity.

In statistical learning theory, convex surrogates of the 0-1 loss are highly preferred because of the computational and theoretical virtues that convexity brings in. This is of more importance if we consider smooth surrogates as witnessed by the fact that the smoothness is further beneficial both computationally- by attaining an {\it optimal} convergence rate for optimization, and in a statistical sense- by providing an improved {\it optimistic} rate for generalization bound. In this paper we investigate the smoothness property from the viewpoint of statistical consistency and show how it affects the binary excess risk. We show that in contrast to optimization and generalization errors that favor the choice of smooth surrogate loss, the smoothness of loss function may degrade the binary excess risk. Motivated by this negative result, we provide a unified analysis that integrates optimization error, generalization bound, and the error in translating convex excess risk into a binary excess risk when examining the impact of smoothness on the binary excess risk. We show that under favorable conditions appropriate choice of smooth convex loss will result in a binary excess risk that is better than $O(1/\sqrt{n})$.

Mixed linear regression involves the recovery of two (or more) unknown vectors from unlabeled linear measurements; that is, where each sample comes from exactly one of the vectors, but we do not know which one. It is a classic problem, and the natural and empirically most popular approach to its solution has been the EM algorithm. As in other settings, this is prone to bad local minima; however, each iteration is very fast (alternating between guessing labels, and solving with those labels). In this paper we provide a new initialization procedure for EM, based on finding the leading two eigenvectors of an appropriate matrix. We then show that with this, a re-sampled version of the EM algorithm provably converges to the correct vectors, under natural assumptions on the sampling distribution, and with nearly optimal (unimprovable) sample complexity. This provides not only the first characterization of EM's performance, but also much lower sample complexity as compared to both standard (randomly initialized) EM, and other methods for this problem.