As massively parallel computations have become broadly available with modern GPUs, deep architectures trained on very large datasets have risen in popularity. Discriminativelytrained convolutional neural networks, in particular, were recently shown to yield state-of-the-art performance in challenging image classification benchmarkssuch as ImageNet. However, elements of these architectures are similar to standard handcrafted representations used in computer vision. In this paper, we explore the extent of this analogy, proposing a version of the stateof-the-art Fishervector image encoding that can be stacked in multiple layers. This architecture significantly improves on standard Fisher vectors, and obtains competitive results with deep convolutional networks at a smaller computational learning cost. Our hybrid architecture allows us to assess how the performance of a conventional handcrafted image classification pipeline changes with increased depth. We also show that convolutional networks and Fisher vector encodings are complementary in the sense that their combination further improves the accuracy.

Causal inference uses observational data to infer the causal structure of the data generating system. We study a class of restricted Structural Equation Models for time series that we call Time Series Models with Independent Noise (TiMINo). These models require independent residual time series, whereas traditional methods like Granger causality exploit the variance of residuals. This work contains two main contributions: (1) Theoretical: By restricting the model class (e.g. to additive noise) we provide more general identifiability results than existing ones. The results cover lagged and instantaneous effects that can be nonlinear and unfaithful, and non-instantaneous feedbacks between the time series. (2) Practical: If there are no feedback loops between time series, we propose an algorithm based on non-linear independence tests of time series. When the data are causally insufficient, or the data generating process does not satisfy the model assumptions, this algorithm may still give partial results, but mostly avoids incorrect answers. The Structural Equation Model point of view allows us to extend both the theoretical and the algorithmic part to situations in which the time series have been measured with different time delays (as may happen for fMRI data, for example). TiMINo outperforms existing methods on artificial and real data. Code is provided.

Visual clutter, the perception of an image as being crowded and disordered, affects aspects of our lives ranging from object detection to aesthetics, yet relatively little effort has been made to model this important and ubiquitous percept. Our approach models clutter as the number of proto-objects segmented from an image, with proto-objects defined as groupings of superpixels that are similar in intensity, color, and gradient orientation features. We introduce a novel parametric method of merging superpixels by modeling mixture of Weibull distributions on similarity distance statistics, then taking the normalized number of proto-objects following partitioning as our estimate of clutter perception. We validated this model using a new $\text{90}-$image dataset of realistic scenes rank ordered by human raters for clutter, and showed that our method not only predicted clutter extremely well (Spearman's $\rho = 0.81$, $p < 0.05$), but also outperformed all existing clutter perception models and even a behavioral object segmentation ground truth. We conclude that the number of proto-objects in an image affects clutter perception more than the number of objects or features.

We propose a model for demand estimation in multi-agent, differentiated product settings and present an estimation algorithm that uses reversible jump MCMC techniques to classify agents' types. Our model extends the popular setup in Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995) to allow for the data-driven classification of agents' types using agent-level data. We focus on applications involving data on agents' ranking over alternatives, and present theoretical conditions that establish the identifiability of the model and uni-modality of the likelihood/posterior. Results on both real and simulated data provide support for the scalability of our approach.

Sparse Subspace Clustering (SSC) and Low-Rank Representation (LRR) are both considered as the state-of-the-art methods for {\em subspace clustering}. The two methods are fundamentally similar in that both are convex optimizations exploiting the intuition of Self-Expressiveness''. The main difference is that SSC minimizes the vector $\ell_1$ norm of the representation matrix to induce sparsity while LRR minimizes nuclear norm (aka trace norm) to promote a low-rank structure. Because the representation matrix is often simultaneously sparse and low-rank, we propose a new algorithm, termed Low-Rank Sparse Subspace Clustering (LRSSC), by combining SSC and LRR, and develops theoretical guarantees of when the algorithm succeeds. The results reveal interesting insights into the strength and weakness of SSC and LRR and demonstrate how LRSSC can take the advantages of both methods in preserving the "Self-Expressiveness Property'' and "Graph Connectivity'' at the same time."

Category models for objects or activities typically rely on supervised learning requiring sufficiently large training sets. Transferring knowledge from known categories to novel classes with no or only a few labels however is far less researched even though it is a common scenario. In this work, we extend transfer learning with semi-supervised learning to exploit unlabeled instances of (novel) categories with no or only a few labeled instances. Our proposed approach Propagated Semantic Transfer combines three main ingredients. First, we transfer information from known to novel categories by incorporating external knowledge, such as linguistic or expert-specified information, e.g., by a mid-level layer of semantic attributes. Second, we exploit the manifold structure of novel classes. More specifically we adapt a graph-based learning algorithm - so far only used for semi-supervised learning - to zero-shot and few-shot learning. Third, we improve the local neighborhood in such graph structures by replacing the raw feature-based representation with a mid-level object- or attribute-based representation. We evaluate our approach on three challenging datasets in two different applications, namely on Animals with Attributes and ImageNet for image classification and on MPII Composites for activity recognition. Our approach consistently outperforms state-of-the-art transfer and semi-supervised approaches on all datasets.

We present a maximum margin framework that clusters data using latent variables. Using latent representations enables our framework to model unobserved information embedded in the data. We implement our idea by large margin learning, and develop an alternating descent algorithm to effectively solve the resultant non-convex optimization problem. We instantiate our latent maximum margin clustering framework with tag-based video clustering tasks, where each video is represented by a latent tag model describing the presence or absence of video tags. Experimental results obtained on three standard datasets show that the proposed method outperforms non-latent maximum margin clustering as well as conventional clustering approaches.

We introduce the Randomized Dependence Coefficient (RDC), a measure of non-linear dependence between random variables of arbitrary dimension based on the Hirschfeld-Gebelein-Rényi Maximum Correlation Coefficient. RDC is defined in terms of correlation of random non-linear copula projections; it is invariant with respect to marginal distribution transformations, has low computational cost and is easy to implement: just five lines of R code, included at the end of the paper.

Multi-step-ahead time series prediction is one of the most challenging research topics in the field of time series modeling and prediction, and is continually under research. Recently, the multiple-input several multiple-outputs (MISMO) modeling strategy has been proposed as a promising alternative for multi-step-ahead time series prediction, exhibiting advantages compared with the two currently dominating strategies, the iterated and the direct strategies. Built on the established MISMO strategy, this study proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based MISMO modeling strategy, which is capable of determining the number of sub-models in a self-adaptive mode, with varying prediction horizons. Rather than deriving crisp divides with equal-size s prediction horizons from the established MISMO, the proposed PSO-MISMO strategy, implemented with neural networks, employs a heuristic to create flexible divides with varying sizes of prediction horizons and to generate corresponding sub-models, providing considerable flexibility in model construction, which has been validated with simulated and real datasets.

Variational inference has become a widely used method to approximate posteriors in complex latent variables models. However, deriving a variational inference algorithm generally requires significant model-specific analysis, and these efforts can hinder and deter us from quickly developing and exploring a variety of models for a problem at hand. In this paper, we present a "black box" variational inference algorithm, one that can be quickly applied to many models with little additional derivation. Our method is based on a stochastic optimization of the variational objective where the noisy gradient is computed from Monte Carlo samples from the variational distribution. We develop a number of methods to reduce the variance of the gradient, always maintaining the criterion that we want to avoid difficult model-based derivations. We evaluate our method against the corresponding black box sampling based methods. We find that our method reaches better predictive likelihoods much faster than sampling methods. Finally, we demonstrate that Black Box Variational Inference lets us easily explore a wide space of models by quickly constructing and evaluating several models of longitudinal healthcare data.