Inspired by a two-level theory that unifies agenda setting and ideological framing, we propose supervised hierarchical latent Dirichlet allocation (SHLDA) which jointly captures documents' multi-level topic structure and their polar response variables. Our model extends the nested Chinese restaurant process to discover a tree-structured topic hierarchy and uses both per-topic hierarchical and per-word lexical regression parameters to model the response variables. Experiments in a political domain and on sentiment analysis tasks show that SHLDA improves predictive accuracy while adding a new dimension of insight into how topics under discussion are framed.

For classifying time series, a nearest-neighbor approach is widely used in practice with performance often competitive with or better than more elaborate methods such as neural networks, decision trees, and support vector machines. We develop theoretical justification for the effectiveness of nearest-neighbor-like classification of time series. Our guiding hypothesis is that in many applications, such as forecasting which topics will become trends on Twitter, there aren't actually that many prototypical time series to begin with, relative to the number of time series we have access to, e.g., topics become trends on Twitter only in a few distinct manners whereas we can collect massive amounts of Twitter data. To operationalize this hypothesis, we propose a latent source model for time series, which naturally leads to a weighted majority voting" classification rule that can be approximated by a nearest-neighbor classifier. We establish nonasymptotic performance guarantees of both weighted majority voting and nearest-neighbor classification under our model accounting for how much of the time series we observe and the model complexity. Experimental results on synthetic data show weighted majority voting achieving the same misclassification rate as nearest-neighbor classification while observing less of the time series. We then use weighted majority to forecast which news topics on Twitter become trends, where we are able to detect such "trending topics" in advance of Twitter 79% of the time, with a mean early advantage of 1 hour and 26 minutes, a true positive rate of 95%, and a false positive rate of 4%."

Discovering hierarchical regularities in data is a key problem in interacting with large datasets, modeling cognition, and encoding knowledge. A previous Bayesian solution---Kingman's coalescent---provides a convenient probabilistic model for data represented as a binary tree. Unfortunately, this is inappropriate for data better described by bushier trees. We generalize an existing belief propagation framework of Kingman's coalescent to the beta coalescent, which models a wider range of tree structures. Because of the complex combinatorial search over possible structures, we develop new sampling schemes using sequential Monte Carlo and Dirichlet process mixture models, which render inference efficient and tractable. We present results on both synthetic and real data that show the beta coalescent outperforms Kingman's coalescent on real datasets and is qualitatively better at capturing data in bushy hierarchies.

Lasso is a widely used regression technique to find sparse representations. When the dimension of the feature space and the number of samples are extremely large, solving the Lasso problem remains challenging. To improve the efficiency of solving large-scale Lasso problems, El Ghaoui and his colleagues have proposed the SAFE rules which are able to quickly identify the inactive predictors, i.e., predictors that have $0$ components in the solution vector. Then, the inactive predictors or features can be removed from the optimization problem to reduce its scale. By transforming the standard Lasso to its dual form, it can be shown that the inactive predictors include the set of inactive constraints on the optimal dual solution. In this paper, we propose an efficient and effective screening rule via Dual Polytope Projections (DPP), which is mainly based on the uniqueness and nonexpansiveness of the optimal dual solution due to the fact that the feasible set in the dual space is a convex and closed polytope. Moreover, we show that our screening rule can be extended to identify inactive groups in group Lasso. To the best of our knowledge, there is currently no exact" screening rule for group Lasso. We have evaluated our screening rule using many real data sets. Results show that our rule is more effective to identify inactive predictors than existing state-of-the-art screening rules for Lasso."

The efficiency of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI) largely depends upon a reliable extraction of informative features from the high-dimensional EEG signal. A crucial step in this protocol is the computation of spatial filters. The Common Spatial Patterns (CSP) algorithm computes filters that maximize the difference in band power between two conditions, thus it is tailored to extract the relevant information in motor imagery experiments. However, CSP is highly sensitive to artifacts in the EEG data, i.e. few outliers may alter the estimate drastically and decrease classification performance. Inspired by concepts from the field of information geometry we propose a novel approach for robustifying CSP. More precisely, we formulate CSP as a divergence maximization problem and utilize the property of a particular type of divergence, namely beta divergence, for robustifying the estimation of spatial filters in the presence of artifacts in the data. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method on toy data and on EEG recordings from 80 subjects.

Discriminative methods for learning structured models have enabled wide-spread use of very rich feature representations. However, the computational cost of feature extraction is prohibitive for large-scale or time-sensitive applications, often dominating the cost of inference in the models. Significant efforts have been devoted to sparsity-based model selection to decrease this cost. Such feature selection methods control computation statically and miss the opportunity to fine-tune feature extraction to each input at run-time. We address the key challenge of learning to control fine-grained feature extraction adaptively, exploiting non-homogeneity of the data. We propose an architecture that uses a rich feedback loop between extraction and prediction. The run-time control policy is learned using efficient value-function approximation, which adaptively determines the value of information of features at the level of individual variables for each input. We demonstrate significant speedups over state-of-the-art methods on two challenging datasets. For articulated pose estimation in video, we achieve a more accurate state-of-the-art model that is simultaneously 4$\times$ faster while using only a small fraction of possible features, with similar results on an OCR task.

We study the fundamental problems of variance and risk estimation in high dimensional statistical modeling. In particular, we consider the problem of learning a coefficient vector $\theta_0\in R^p$ from noisy linear observation $y=X\theta_0+w\in R^n$ and the popular estimation procedure of solving an $\ell_1$-penalized least squares objective known as the LASSO or Basis Pursuit DeNoising (BPDN). In this context, we develop new estimators for the $\ell_2$ estimation risk $\|\hat{\theta}-\theta_0\|_2$ and the variance of the noise. These can be used to select the regularization parameter optimally. Our approach combines Stein unbiased risk estimate (Stein'81) and recent results of (Bayati and Montanari'11-12) on the analysis of approximate message passing and risk of LASSO. We establish high-dimensional consistency of our estimators for sequences of matrices $X$ of increasing dimensions, with independent Gaussian entries. We establish validity for a broader class of Gaussian designs, conditional on the validity of a certain conjecture from statistical physics. Our approach is the first that provides an asymptotically consistent risk estimator. In addition, we demonstrate through simulation that our variance estimation outperforms several existing methods in the literature.

In this paper, we propose a new and computationally efficient framework for learning sparse models. We formulate a unified approach that contains as particular cases models promoting sparse synthesis and analysis type of priors, and mixtures thereof. The supervised training of the proposed model is formulated as a bilevel optimization problem, in which the operators are optimized to achieve the best possible performance on a specific task, e.g., reconstruction or classification. By restricting the operators to be shift invariant, our approach can be thought as a way of learning analysis+synthesis sparsity-promoting convolutional operators. Leveraging recent ideas on fast trainable regressors designed to approximate exact sparse codes, we propose a way of constructing feed-forward neural networks capable of approximating the learned models at a fraction of the computational cost of exact solvers. In the shift-invariant case, this leads to a principled way of constructing task-specific convolutional networks. We illustrate the proposed models on several experiments in music analysis and image processing applications.

Multiple hypothesis testing is a significant problem in nearly all neuroimaging studies. In order to correct for this phenomena, we require a reliable estimate of the Family-Wise Error Rate (FWER). The well known Bonferroni correction method, while being simple to implement, is quite conservative, and can substantially under-power a study because it ignores dependencies between test statistics. Permutation testing, on the other hand, is an exact, non parametric method of estimating the FWER for a given α threshold, but for acceptably low thresholds the computational burden can be prohibitive. In this paper, we observe that permutation testing in fact amounts to populating the columns of a very large matrix P. By analyzing the spectrum of this matrix, under certain conditions, we see that P has a low-rank plus a low-variance residual decomposition which makes it suitable for highly sub–sampled — on the order of 0.5% — matrix completion methods. Thus, we propose a novel permutation testing methodology which offers a large speedup, without sacrificing the fidelity of the estimated FWER. Our valuations on four different neuroimaging datasets show that a computational speedup factor of roughly 50× can be achieved while recovering the FWER distribution up to very high accuracy. Further, we show that the estimated α threshold is also recovered faithfully, and is stable.

Bilinear approximation of a matrix is a powerful paradigm of unsupervised learning. In some applications, however, there is a natural hierarchy of concepts that ought to be reflected in the unsupervised analysis. For example, in the neurosciences image sequence considered here, there are the semantic concepts of pixel $\rightarrow$ neuron $\rightarrow$ assembly that should find their counterpart in the unsupervised analysis. Driven by this concrete problem, we propose a decomposition of the matrix of observations into a product of more than two sparse matrices, with the rank decreasing from lower to higher levels. In contrast to prior work, we allow for both hierarchical and heterarchical relations of lower-level to higher-level concepts. In addition, we learn the nature of these relations rather than imposing them. Finally, we describe an optimization scheme that allows to optimize the decomposition over all levels jointly, rather than in a greedy level-by-level fashion. The proposed bilevel SHMF (sparse heterarchical matrix factorization) is the first formalism that allows to simultaneously interpret a calcium imaging sequence in terms of the constituent neurons, their membership in assemblies, and the time courses of both neurons and assemblies. Experiments show that the proposed model fully recovers the structure from difficult synthetic data designed to imitate the experimental data. More importantly, bilevel SHMF yields plausible interpretations of real-world Calcium imaging data.