In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If such locally adaptive smoothness is not accounted for, one can obtain misleading inferences and predictions, with over-smoothing across erratic time intervals and under-smoothing across times exhibiting slow variation. This can lead to miscalibration of predictive intervals, which can be substantially too narrow or wide depending on the time. We propose a continuous multivariate stochastic process for time series having locally varying smoothness in both the mean and covariance matrix. This process is constructed utilizing latent dictionary functions in time, which are given nested Gaussian process priors and linearly related to the observed data through a sparse mapping. Using a differential equation representation, we bypass usual computational bottlenecks in obtaining MCMC and online algorithms for approximate Bayesian inference. The performance is assessed in simulations and illustrated in a financial application.

The Markov chain is a convenient tool to represent the dynamics of complex systems such as traffic and social systems, where probabilistic transition takes place between internal states. A Markov chain is characterized by initial-state probabilities and a state-transition probability matrix. In the traditional setting, a major goal is to figure out properties of a Markov chain when those probabilities are known. This paper tackles an inverse version of the problem: we find those probabilities from partial observations at a limited number of states. The observations include the frequency of visiting a state and the rate of reaching a state from another. Practical examples of this task include traffic monitoring systems in cities, where we need to infer the traffic volume on every single link on a road network from a very limited number of observation points. We formulate this task as a regularized optimization problem for probability functions, which is efficiently solved using the notion of natural gradient. Using synthetic and real-world data sets including city traffic monitoring data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Label propagation is one of the state-of-the-art methods for semi-supervised learning, which estimates labels by propagating label information through a graph. Label propagation assumes that data points (nodes) connected in a graph should have similar labels. Consequently, the label estimation heavily depends on edge weights in a graph which represent similarity of each node pair. We propose a method for a graph to capture the manifold structure of input features using edge weights parameterized by a similarity function. In this approach, edge weights represent both similarity and local reconstruction weight simultaneously, both being reasonable for label propagation. For further justification, we provide analytical considerations including an interpretation as a cross-validation of a propagation model in the feature space, and an error analysis based on a low dimensional manifold model. Experimental results demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach both in synthetic and real datasets.

We address the problem of estimating the ratio $\frac{q}{p}$ where $p$ is a density function and $q$ is another density, or, more generally an arbitrary function. Knowing or approximating this ratio is needed in various problems of inference and integration, in particular, when one needs to average a function with respect to one probability distribution, given a sample from another. It is often referred as {\it importance sampling} in statistical inference and is also closely related to the problem of {\it covariate shift} in transfer learning as well as to various MCMC methods. Our approach is based on reformulating the problem of estimating the ratio as an inverse problem in terms of an integral operator corresponding to a kernel, and thus reducing it to an integral equation, known as the Fredholm problem of the first kind. This formulation, combined with the techniques of regularization and kernel methods, leads to a principled kernel-based framework for constructing algorithms and for analyzing them theoretically. The resulting family of algorithms (FIRE, for Fredholm Inverse Regularized Estimator) is flexible, simple and easy to implement. We provide detailed theoretical analysis including concentration bounds and convergence rates for the Gaussian kernel for densities defined on $\R^d$ and smooth $d$-dimensional sub-manifolds of the Euclidean space. Model selection for unsupervised or semi-supervised inference is generally a difficult problem. Interestingly, it turns out that in the density ratio estimation setting, when samples from both distributions are available, there are simple completely unsupervised methods for choosing parameters. We call this model selection mechanism CD-CV for Cross-Density Cross-Validation. Finally, we show encouraging experimental results including applications to classification within the covariate shift framework.

Multi-task prediction models are widely being used to couple regressors or classification models by sharing information across related tasks. A common pitfall of these models is that they assume that the output tasks are independent conditioned on the inputs. Here, we propose a multi-task Gaussian process approach to model both the relatedness between regressors as well as the task correlations in the residuals, in order to more accurately identify true sharing between regressors. The resulting Gaussian model has a covariance term that is the sum of Kronecker products, for which efficient parameter inference and out of sample prediction are feasible. On both synthetic examples and applications to phenotype prediction in genetics, we find substantial benefits of modeling structured noise compared to established alternatives.

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are random point processes well-suited for modeling repulsion. In machine learning, the focus of DPP-based models has been on diverse subset selection from a discrete and finite base set. This discrete setting admits an efficient algorithm for sampling based on the eigendecomposition of the defining kernel matrix. Recently, there has been growing interest in using DPPs defined on continuous spaces. While the discrete-DPP sampler extends formally to the continuous case, computationally, the steps required cannot be directly extended except in a few restricted cases. In this paper, we present efficient approximate DPP sampling schemes based on Nystrom and random Fourier feature approximations that apply to a wide range of kernel functions. We demonstrate the utility of continuous DPPs in repulsive mixture modeling applications and synthesizing human poses spanning activity spaces.

Ideas from the image processing literature have recently motivated a new set of clustering algorithms that rely on the concept of total variation. While these algorithms perform well for bi-partitioning tasks, their recursive extensions yield unimpressive results for multiclass clustering tasks. This paper presents a general framework for multiclass total variation clustering that does not rely on recursion. The results greatly outperform previous total variation algorithms and compare well with state-of-the-art NMF approaches.

Computing the stationary distribution of a large finite or countably infinite state space Markov Chain (MC) has become central in many problems such as statistical inference and network analysis. Standard methods involve large matrix multiplications as in power iteration, or simulations of long random walks to sample states from the stationary distribution, as in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However these methods are computationally costly; either they involve operations at every state or they scale (in computation time) at least linearly in the size of the state space. In this paper, we provide a novel algorithm that answers whether a chosen state in a MC has stationary probability larger than some $\Delta \in (0,1)$. If so, it estimates the stationary probability. Our algorithm uses information from a local neighborhood of the state on the graph induced by the MC, which has constant size relative to the state space. We provide correctness and convergence guarantees that depend on the algorithm parameters and mixing properties of the MC. Simulation results show MCs for which this method gives tight estimates.

Many machine learning problems can be interpreted as learning for matching two types of objects (e.g., images and captions, users and products, queries and documents). The matching level of two objects is usually measured as the inner product in a certain feature space, while the modeling effort focuses on mapping of objects from the original space to the feature space. This schema, although proven successful on a range of matching tasks, is insufficient for capturing the rich structure in the matching process of more complicated objects. In this paper, we propose a new deep architecture to more effectively model the complicated matching relations between two objects from heterogeneous domains. More specifically, we apply this model to matching tasks in natural language, e.g., finding sensible responses for a tweet, or relevant answers to a given question. This new architecture naturally combines the localness and hierarchy intrinsic to the natural language problems, and therefore greatly improves upon the state-of-the-art models.

We introduce a novel formulation of multi-task learning (MTL) called parametric task learning (PTL) that can systematically handle infinitely many tasks parameterized by a continuous parameter. Our key finding is that, for a certain class of PTL problems, the path of optimal task-wise solutions can be represented as piecewise-linear functions of the continuous task parameter. Based on this fact, we employ a parametric programming technique to obtain the common shared representation across all the continuously parameterized tasks efficiently. We show that our PTL formulation is useful in various scenarios such as learning under non-stationarity, cost-sensitive learning, and quantile regression, and demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method experimentally in these scenarios.