Probabilistic reasoning under the so-called principle of maximum entropy is a viable and convenient alternative to Bayesian networks, relieving the user from providing complete (local) probabilistic information and observing rigorous conditional independence assumptions. In this paper, we present a novel approach to performing computational MaxEnt reasoning that makes use of symbolic computations instead of graph-based techniques. Given a probabilistic knowledge base, we encode the MaxEnt optimization problem into a system of polynomial equations, and then apply Gröbner basis theory to find MaxEnt inferences as solutions to the polynomials. We illustrate our approach with an example of a knowledge base that represents findings on fraud detection in enterprises.

We propose a penalized likelihood method to jointly estimate multiple precision matrices for use in quadratic discriminant analysis and model based clustering. A ridge penalty and a ridge fusion penalty are used to introduce shrinkage and promote similarity between precision matrix estimates. Block-wise coordinate descent is used for optimization, and validation likelihood is used for tuning parameter selection. Our method is applied in quadratic discriminant analysis and semi-supervised model based clustering.

Rare data in a large-scale database are called outliers that reveal significant information in the real world. The subspace-based outlier detection is regarded as a feasible approach in very high dimensional space. However, the outliers found in subspaces are only part of the true outliers in high dimensional space, indeed. The outliers hidden in normal-clustered points are sometimes neglected in the projected dimensional subspace. In this paper, we propose a robust subspace method for detecting such inner outliers in a given dataset, which uses two dimensional-projections: detecting outliers in subspaces with local density ratio in the first projected dimensions; finding outliers by comparing neighbor's positions in the second projected dimensions. Each point's weight is calculated by summing up all related values got in the two steps projected dimensions, and then the points scoring the largest weight values are taken as outliers. By taking a series of experiments with the number of dimensions from 10 to 10000, the results show that our proposed method achieves high precision in the case of extremely high dimensional space, and works well in low dimensional space.

We consider the question of learning in general topological vector spaces. By exploiting known (or parametrized) covariance structures, our Main Theorem demonstrates that any continuous linear map corresponds to a certain isomorphism of embedded Hilbert spaces. By inverting this isomorphism and extending continuously, we construct a version of the Ordinary Least Squares estimator in absolute generality. Our Gauss-Markov theorem demonstrates that OLS is a "best linear unbiased estimator", extending the classical result. We construct a stochastic version of the OLS estimator, which is a continuous disintegration exactly for the class of "uncorrelated implies independent" (UII) measures. As a consequence, Gaussian measures always exhibit continuous disintegrations through continuous linear maps, extending a theorem of the first author. Applying this framework to some problems in machine learning, we prove a useful representation theorem for covariance tensors, and show that OLS defines a good kriging predictor for vector-valued arrays on general index spaces. We also construct a support-vector machine classifier in this setting. We hope that our article shines light on some deeper connections between probability theory, statistics and machine learning, and may serve as a point of intersection for these three communities.

Learning to rank is a supervised learning problem where the output space is the space of rankings but the supervision space is the space of relevance scores. We make theoretical contributions to the learning to rank problem both in the online and batch settings. First, we propose a perceptron-like algorithm for learning a ranking function in an online setting. Our algorithm is an extension of the classic perceptron algorithm for the classification problem. Second, in the setting of batch learning, we introduce a sufficient condition for convex ranking surrogates to ensure a generalization bound that is independent of number of objects per query. Our bound holds when linear ranking functions are used: a common practice in many learning to rank algorithms. En route to developing the online algorithm and generalization bound, we propose a novel family of listwise large margin ranking surrogates. Our novel surrogate family is obtained by modifying a well-known pairwise large margin ranking surrogate and is distinct from the listwise large margin surrogates developed using the structured prediction framework. Using the proposed family, we provide a guaranteed upper bound on the cumulative NDCG (or MAP) induced loss under the perceptron-like algorithm. We also show that the novel surrogates satisfy the generalization bound condition.

In this work, we employ quantitative methods from the realm of statistics and machine learning to develop novel methodologies for author attribution and textual analysis. In particular, we develop techniques and software suitable for applications to Classical study, and we illustrate the efficacy of our approach in several interesting open questions in the field. We apply our numerical analysis techniques to questions of authorship attribution in the case of the Greek tragedian Euripides, to instances of intertextuality and influence in the poetry of the Roman statesman Seneca the Younger, and to cases of "interpolated" text with respect to the histories of Livy.

Contrastive divergence (CD) is a promising method of inference in high dimensional distributions with intractable normalizing constants, however, the theoretical foundations justifying its use are somewhat shaky. This document proposes a framework for understanding CD inference, how/when it works, and provides multiple justifications for the CD moment conditions, including framing them as a variational approximation. Algorithms for performing inference are discussed and are applied to social network data using an exponential-family random graph models (ERGM). The framework also provides guidance about how to construct MCMC kernels providing good CD inference, which turn out to be quite different from those used typically to provide fast global mixing.

We propose a novel non-parametric adaptive anomaly detection algorithm for high dimensional data based on rank-SVM. Data points are first ranked based on scores derived from nearest neighbor graphs on n-point nominal data. We then train a rank-SVM using this ranked data. A test-point is declared as an anomaly at alpha-false alarm level if the predicted score is in the alpha-percentile. The resulting anomaly detector is shown to be asymptotically optimal and adaptive in that for any false alarm rate alpha, its decision region converges to the alpha-percentile level set of the unknown underlying density. In addition we illustrate through a number of synthetic and real-data experiments both the statistical performance and computational efficiency of our anomaly detector.

We develop a nested hierarchical Dirichlet process (nHDP) for hierarchical topic modeling. The nHDP is a generalization of the nested Chinese restaurant process (nCRP) that allows each word to follow its own path to a topic node according to a document-specific distribution on a shared tree. This alleviates the rigid, single-path formulation of the nCRP, allowing a document to more easily express thematic borrowings as a random effect. We derive a stochastic variational inference algorithm for the model, in addition to a greedy subtree selection method for each document, which allows for efficient inference using massive collections of text documents. We demonstrate our algorithm on 1.8 million documents from The New York Times and 3.3 million documents from Wikipedia.

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild differentiability conditions, even works in the intractable case. Our contributions is two-fold. First, we show that a reparameterization of the variational lower bound yields a lower bound estimator that can be straightforwardly optimized using standard stochastic gradient methods. Second, we show that for i.i.d. datasets with continuous latent variables per datapoint, posterior inference can be made especially efficient by fitting an approximate inference model (also called a recognition model) to the intractable posterior using the proposed lower bound estimator. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.