A new non parametric approach to the problem of testing the independence of two random process is developed. The test statistic is the Hilbert Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), which was used previously in testing independence for i.i.d pairs of variables. The asymptotic behaviour of HSIC is established when computed from samples drawn from random processes. It is shown that earlier bootstrap procedures which worked in the i.i.d. case will fail for random processes, and an alternative consistent estimate of the p-values is proposed. Tests on artificial data and real-world Forex data indicate that the new test procedure discovers dependence which is missed by linear approaches, while the earlier bootstrap procedure returns an elevated number of false positives. The code is available online: https://github.com/kacperChwialkowski/HSIC .

In this work we propose a simple and easily parallelizable algorithm for multiway graph partitioning. The algorithm alternates between three basic components: diffusing seed vertices over the graph, thresholding the diffused seeds, and then randomly reseeding the thresholded clusters. We demonstrate experimentally that the proper combination of these ingredients leads to an algorithm that achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of cluster purity on standard benchmarks datasets. Moreover, the algorithm runs an order of magnitude faster than the other algorithms that achieve comparable results in terms of accuracy. We also describe a coarsen, cluster and refine approach similar to GRACLUS and METIS that removes an additional order of magnitude from the runtime of our algorithm while still maintaining competitive accuracy.

In addition to finding meaningful clusters, centroid-based clustering algorithms such as K-means or mean-shift should ideally find centroids that are valid patterns in the input space, representative of data in their cluster. This is challenging with data having a nonconvex or manifold structure, as with images or text. We introduce a new algorithm, Laplacian K-modes, which naturally combines three powerful ideas in clustering: the explicit use of assignment variables (as in K-means); the estimation of cluster centroids which are modes of each cluster's density estimate (as in mean-shift); and the regularizing effect of the graph Laplacian, which encourages similar assignments for nearby points (as in spectral clustering). The optimization algorithm alternates an assignment step, which is a convex quadratic program, and a mean-shift step, which separates for each cluster centroid. The algorithm finds meaningful density estimates for each cluster, even with challenging problems where the clusters have manifold structure, are highly nonconvex or in high dimension. It also provides centroids that are valid patterns, truly representative of their cluster (unlike K-means), and an out-of-sample mapping that predicts soft assignments for a new point.

Stochastic gradient descent algorithms for training linear and kernel predictors are gaining more and more importance, thanks to their scalability. While various methods have been proposed to speed up their convergence, the model selection phase is often ignored. In fact, in theoretical works most of the time assumptions are made, for example, on the prior knowledge of the norm of the optimal solution, while in the practical world validation methods remain the only viable approach. In this paper, we propose a new kernel-based stochastic gradient descent algorithm that performs model selection while training, with no parameters to tune, nor any form of cross-validation. The algorithm builds on recent advancement in online learning theory for unconstrained settings, to estimate over time the right regularization in a data-dependent way. Optimal rates of convergence are proved under standard smoothness assumptions on the target function, using the range space of the fractional integral operator associated with the kernel.

In this paper we develop a dynamic form of Bayesian optimization for machine learning models with the goal of rapidly finding good hyperparameter settings. Our method uses the partial information gained during the training of a machine learning model in order to decide whether to pause training and start a new model, or resume the training of a previously-considered model. We specifically tailor our method to machine learning problems by developing a novel positive-definite covariance kernel to capture a variety of training curves. Furthermore, we develop a Gaussian process prior that scales gracefully with additional temporal observations. Finally, we provide an information-theoretic framework to automate the decision process. Experiments on several common machine learning models show that our approach is extremely effective in practice.

Despite the fact that they do not consider the temporal nature of data, classic dimensionality reduction techniques, such as PCA, are widely applied to time series data. In this paper, we introduce a factor decomposition specific for time series that builds upon the Bayesian multivariate autoregressive model and hence evades the assumption that data points are mutually independent. The key is to find a low-rank estimation of the autoregressive matrices. As in the probabilistic version of other factor models, this induces a latent low-dimensional representation of the original data. We discuss some possible generalisations and alternatives, with the most relevant being a technique for simultaneous smoothing and dimensionality reduction. To illustrate the potential applications, we apply the model on a synthetic data set and different types of neuroimaging data (EEG and ECoG).

Consider a linear regression model where the design matrix X has n rows and p columns. We assume (a) p is much large than n, (b) the coefficient vector beta is sparse in the sense that only a small fraction of its coordinates is nonzero, and (c) the Gram matrix G = X'X is sparse in the sense that each row has relatively few large coordinates (diagonals of G are normalized to 1). The sparsity in G naturally induces the sparsity of the so-called graph of strong dependence (GOSD). We find an interesting interplay between the signal sparsity and the graph sparsity, which ensures that in a broad context, the set of true signals decompose into many different small-size components of GOSD, where different components are disconnected. We propose Graphlet Screening (GS) as a new approach to variable selection, which is a two-stage Screen and Clean method. The key methodological innovation of GS is to use GOSD to guide both the screening and cleaning. Compared to m-variate brute-forth screening that has a computational cost of p^m, the GS only has a computational cost of p (up to some multi-log(p) factors) in screening. We measure the performance of any variable selection procedure by the minimax Hamming distance. We show that in a very broad class of situations, GS achieves the optimal rate of convergence in terms of the Hamming distance. Somewhat surprisingly, the well-known procedures subset selection and the lasso are rate non-optimal, even in very simple settings and even when their tuning parameters are ideally set.

Space and time are two critical components of many real world systems. For this reason, analysis of anomalies in spatiotemporal data has been a great of interest. In this work, application of tensor decomposition and eigenspace techniques on spatiotemporal hotspot detection is investigated. An algorithm called SST-Hotspot is proposed which accounts for spatiotemporal variations in data and detect hotspots using matching of eigenvector elements of two cases and population tensors. The experimental results reveal the interesting application of tensor decomposition and eigenvector-based techniques in hotspot analysis.

Hotspot detection aims at identifying subgroups in the observations that are unexpected, with respect to the some baseline information. For instance, in disease surveillance, the purpose is to detect sub-regions in spatiotemporal space, where the count of reported diseases (e.g. Cancer) is higher than expected, with respect to the population. The state-of-the-art method for this kind of problem is the Space-Time Scan Statistics (STScan), which exhaustively search the whole space through a sliding window looking for significant spatiotemporal clusters. STScan makes some restrictive assumptions about the distribution of data, the shape of the hotspots and the quality of data, which can be unrealistic for some nontraditional data sources. A novel methodology called EigenSpot is proposed where instead of an exhaustive search over the space, tracks the changes in a space-time correlation structure. Not only does the new approach presents much more computational efficiency, but also makes no assumption about the data distribution, hotspot shape or the data quality. The principal idea is that with the joint combination of abnormal elements in the principal spatial and the temporal singular vectors, the location of hotspots in the spatiotemporal space can be approximated. A comprehensive experimental evaluation, both on simulated and real data sets reveals the effectiveness of the proposed method.

A Kernel Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is introduced, for the purpose of sampling from a target distribution with strongly nonlinear support. The algorithm embeds the trajectory of the Markov chain into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), such that the feature space covariance of the samples informs the choice of proposal. The procedure is computationally efficient and straightforward to implement, since the RKHS moves can be integrated out analytically: our proposal distribution in the original space is a normal distribution whose mean and covariance depend on where the current sample lies in the support of the target distribution, and adapts to its local covariance structure. Furthermore, the procedure requires neither gradients nor any other higher order information about the target, making it particularly attractive for contexts such as Pseudo-Marginal MCMC. Kernel Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings outperforms competing fixed and adaptive samplers on multivariate, highly nonlinear target distributions, arising in both real-world and synthetic examples. Code may be downloaded at https://github.com/karlnapf/kameleon-mcmc.