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 Statistical Learning


Who Also Likes It? Generating the Most Persuasive Social Explanations in Recommender Systems

AAAI Conferences

Social explanation, the statement with the form of "A and B also like the item", is widely used in almost all the major recommender systems in the web and effectively improves the persuasiveness of the recommendation results by convincing more users to try. This paper presents the first algorithm to generate the most persuasive social explanation by recommending the optimal set of users to be put in the explanation. New challenges like modeling persuasiveness of multiple users, different types of users in social network, sparsity of likes, are discussed in depth and solved in our algorithm. The extensive evaluation demonstrates the advantage of our proposed algorithm compared with traditional methods.


Growing Regression Forests by Classification: Applications to Object Pose Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this work, we propose a novel node splitting method for regression trees and incorporate it into the regression forest framework. Unlike traditional binary splitting, where the splitting rule is selected from a predefined set of binary splitting rules via trial-and-error, the proposed node splitting method first finds clusters of the training data which at least locally minimize the empirical loss without considering the input space. Then splitting rules which preserve the found clusters as much as possible are determined by casting the problem into a classification problem. Consequently, our new node splitting method enjoys more freedom in choosing the splitting rules, resulting in more efficient tree structures. In addition to the Euclidean target space, we present a variant which can naturally deal with a circular target space by the proper use of circular statistics. We apply the regression forest employing our node splitting to head pose estimation (Euclidean target space) and car direction estimation (circular target space) and demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods (38.5% and 22.5% error reduction respectively).


Reconsidering Mutual Information Based Feature Selection: A Statistical Significance View

AAAI Conferences

Mutual information (MI) based approaches are a popular feature selection paradigm. Although the stated goal of MI-based feature selection is to identify a subset of features that share the highest mutual information with the class variable, most current MI-based techniques are greedy methods that make use of low dimensional MI quantities. The reason for using low dimensional approximation has been mostly attributed to the difficulty associated with estimating the high dimensional MI from limited samples. In this paper, we argue a different viewpoint that, given a very large amount of data, the high dimensional MI objective is still problematic to be employed as a meaningful optimization criterion, due to its overfitting nature: the MI almost always increases as more features are added, thus leading to a trivial solution which includes all features. We propose a novel approach to the MI-based feature selection problem, in which the overfitting phenomenon is controlled rigourously by means of a statistical test. We develop local and global optimization algorithms for this new feature selection model, and demonstrate its effectiveness in the applications of explaining variables and objects.


Reconsidering Mutual Information Based Feature Selection: A Statistical Significance View

AAAI Conferences

Mutual information (MI) based approaches are a popular feature selection paradigm. Although the stated goal of MI-based feature selection is to identify a subset of features that share the highest mutual information with the class variable, most current MI-based techniques are greedy methods that make use of low dimensional MI quantities. The reason for using low dimensional approximation has been mostly attributed to the difficulty associated with estimating the high dimensional MI from limited samples. In this paper, we argue a different viewpoint that, given a very large amount of data, the high dimensional MI objective is still problematic to be employed as a meaningful optimization criterion, due to its overfitting nature: the MI almost always increases as more features are added, thus leading to a trivial solution which includes all features. We propose a novel approach to the MI-based feature selection problem, in which the overfitting phenomenon is controlled rigourously by means of a statistical test. We develop local and global optimization algorithms for this new feature selection model, and demonstrate its effectiveness in the applications of explaining variables and objects.


Reconsidering Mutual Information Based Feature Selection: A Statistical Significance View

AAAI Conferences

Mutual information (MI) based approaches are a popular feature selection paradigm. Although the stated goal of MI-based feature selection is to identify a subset of features that share the highest mutual information with the class variable, most current MI-based techniques are greedy methods that make use of low dimensional MI quantities. The reason for using low dimensional approximation has been mostly attributed to the difficulty associated with estimating the high dimensional MI from limited samples. In this paper, we argue a different viewpoint that, given a very large amount of data, the high dimensional MI objective is still problematic to be employed as a meaningful optimization criterion, due to its overfitting nature: the MI almost always increases as more features are added, thus leading to a trivial solution which includes all features. We propose a novel approach to the MI-based feature selection problem, in which the overfitting phenomenon is controlled rigourously by means of a statistical test. We develop local and global optimization algorithms for this new feature selection model, and demonstrate its effectiveness in the applications of explaining variables and objects.


Reconsidering Mutual Information Based Feature Selection: A Statistical Significance View

AAAI Conferences

Mutual information (MI) based approaches are a popular feature selection paradigm. Although the stated goal of MI-based feature selection is to identify a subset of features that share the highest mutual information with the class variable, most current MI-based techniques are greedy methods that make use of low dimensional MI quantities. The reason for using low dimensional approximation has been mostly attributed to the difficulty associated with estimating the high dimensional MI from limited samples. In this paper, we argue a different viewpoint that, given a very large amount of data, the high dimensional MI objective is still problematic to be employed as a meaningful optimization criterion, due to its overfitting nature: the MI almost always increases as more features are added, thus leading to a trivial solution which includes all features. We propose a novel approach to the MI-based feature selection problem, in which the overfitting phenomenon is controlled rigourously by means of a statistical test. We develop local and global optimization algorithms for this new feature selection model, and demonstrate its effectiveness in the applications of explaining variables and objects.


Reconsidering Mutual Information Based Feature Selection: A Statistical Significance View

AAAI Conferences

Mutual information (MI) based approaches are a popular feature selection paradigm. Although the stated goal of MI-based feature selection is to identify a subset of features that share the highest mutual information with the class variable, most current MI-based techniques are greedy methods that make use of low dimensional MI quantities. The reason for using low dimensional approximation has been mostly attributed to the difficulty associated with estimating the high dimensional MI from limited samples. In this paper, we argue a different viewpoint that, given a very large amount of data, the high dimensional MI objective is still problematic to be employed as a meaningful optimization criterion, due to its overfitting nature: the MI almost always increases as more features are added, thus leading to a trivial solution which includes all features. We propose a novel approach to the MI-based feature selection problem, in which the overfitting phenomenon is controlled rigourously by means of a statistical test. We develop local and global optimization algorithms for this new feature selection model, and demonstrate its effectiveness in the applications of explaining variables and objects.


Reconsidering Mutual Information Based Feature Selection: A Statistical Significance View

AAAI Conferences

Mutual information (MI) based approaches are a popular feature selection paradigm. Although the stated goal of MI-based feature selection is to identify a subset of features that share the highest mutual information with the class variable, most current MI-based techniques are greedy methods that make use of low dimensional MI quantities. The reason for using low dimensional approximation has been mostly attributed to the difficulty associated with estimating the high dimensional MI from limited samples. In this paper, we argue a different viewpoint that, given a very large amount of data, the high dimensional MI objective is still problematic to be employed as a meaningful optimization criterion, due to its overfitting nature: the MI almost always increases as more features are added, thus leading to a trivial solution which includes all features. We propose a novel approach to the MI-based feature selection problem, in which the overfitting phenomenon is controlled rigourously by means of a statistical test. We develop local and global optimization algorithms for this new feature selection model, and demonstrate its effectiveness in the applications of explaining variables and objects.


Monte Carlo Simulation for Lasso-Type Problems by Estimator Augmentation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Regularized linear regression under the $\ell_1$ penalty, such as the Lasso, has been shown to be effective in variable selection and sparse modeling. The sampling distribution of an $\ell_1$-penalized estimator $\hat{\beta}$ is hard to determine as the estimator is defined by an optimization problem that in general can only be solved numerically and many of its components may be exactly zero. Let $S$ be the subgradient of the $\ell_1$ norm of the coefficient vector $\beta$ evaluated at $\hat{\beta}$. We find that the joint sampling distribution of $\hat{\beta}$ and $S$, together called an augmented estimator, is much more tractable and has a closed-form density under a normal error distribution in both low-dimensional ($p\leq n$) and high-dimensional ($p>n$) settings. Given $\beta$ and the error variance $\sigma^2$, one may employ standard Monte Carlo methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling, to draw samples from the distribution of the augmented estimator and calculate expectations with respect to the sampling distribution of $\hat{\beta}$. We develop a few concrete Monte Carlo algorithms and demonstrate with numerical examples that our approach may offer huge advantages and great flexibility in studying sampling distributions in $\ell_1$-penalized linear regression. We also establish nonasymptotic bounds on the difference between the true sampling distribution of $\hat{\beta}$ and its estimator obtained by plugging in estimated parameters, which justifies the validity of Monte Carlo simulation from an estimated sampling distribution even when $p\gg n\to \infty$.


Modeling the Complex Dynamics and Changing Correlations of Epileptic Events

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Patients with epilepsy can manifest short, sub-clinical epileptic "bursts" in addition to full-blown clinical seizures. We believe the relationship between these two classes of events---something not previously studied quantitatively---could yield important insights into the nature and intrinsic dynamics of seizures. A goal of our work is to parse these complex epileptic events into distinct dynamic regimes. A challenge posed by the intracranial EEG (iEEG) data we study is the fact that the number and placement of electrodes can vary between patients. We develop a Bayesian nonparametric Markov switching process that allows for (i) shared dynamic regimes between a variable number of channels, (ii) asynchronous regime-switching, and (iii) an unknown dictionary of dynamic regimes. We encode a sparse and changing set of dependencies between the channels using a Markov-switching Gaussian graphical model for the innovations process driving the channel dynamics and demonstrate the importance of this model in parsing and out-of-sample predictions of iEEG data. We show that our model produces intuitive state assignments that can help automate clinical analysis of seizures and enable the comparison of sub-clinical bursts and full clinical seizures.