Statistical Learning
A Greedy Homotopy Method for Regression with Nonconvex Constraints
Wauthier, Fabian L., Donnelly, Peter
Constrained least squares regression is an essential tool for high-dimensional data analysis. Given a partition $\mathcal{G}$ of input variables, this paper considers a particular class of nonconvex constraint functions that encourage the linear model to select a small number of variables from a small number of groups in $\mathcal{G}$. Such constraints are relevant in many practical applications, such as Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS). Motivated by the efficiency of the Lasso homotopy method, we present RepLasso, a greedy homotopy algorithm that tries to solve the induced sequence of nonconvex problems by solving a sequence of suitably adapted convex surrogate problems. We prove that in some situations RepLasso recovers the global minima of the nonconvex problem. Moreover, even if it does not recover global minima, we prove that in relevant cases it will still do no worse than the Lasso in terms of support and signed support recovery, while in practice outperforming it. We show empirically that the strategy can also be used to improve over other Lasso-style algorithms. Finally, a GWAS of ankylosing spondylitis highlights our method's practical utility.
A General Statistic Framework for Genome-based Disease Risk Prediction
Ma, L., Lin, N., Amos, C. I., Xiong, M. M.
Advances of modern sensing and sequencing technologies generate a deluge of high dimensional space-temporal physiological and next-generation sequencing (NGS) data. Physiological traits are observed either as continuous random functions, or on a dense grid and referred to as function-valued traits. Both physiological and NGS data are highly correlated data with their inherent order, spacing, and functional nature which are ignored by traditional summary-based univariate and multivariate regression methods designed for quantitative genetic analysis of scalar trait and common variants. To capture morphological and dynamic features of the data and utilize their dependent structure, we propose a functional linear model (FLM) in which a trait curve is modeled as a response function, the genetic variation in a genomic region or gene is modeled as a functional predictor, and the genetic effects are modeled as a function of both time and genomic position (FLMF) for genetic analysis of function-valued trait with both GWAS and NGS data. By extensive simulations, we demonstrate that the FLMF has the correct type 1 error rates and much higher power to detect association than the existing methods. The FLMF is applied to sleep data from Starr County health studies where oxygen saturation were measured in 22,670 seconds on average for 833 individuals. We found 65 genes that were significantly associated with oxygen saturation functional trait with P-values ranging from 2.40E-06 to 2.53E-21. The results clearly demonstrate that the FLMF substantially outperforms the traditional genetic models with scalar trait.
Fast Function to Function Regression
Oliva, Junier, Neiswanger, Willie, Poczos, Barnabas, Xing, Eric, Schneider, Jeff
We analyze the problem of regression when both input covariates and output responses are functions from a nonparametric function class. Function to function regression (FFR) covers a large range of interesting applications including time-series prediction problems, and also more general tasks like studying a mapping between two separate types of distributions. However, previous nonparametric estimators for FFR type problems scale badly computationally with the number of input/output pairs in a data-set. Given the complexity of a mapping between general functions it may be necessary to consider large data-sets in order to achieve a low estimation risk. To address this issue, we develop a novel scalable nonparametric estimator, the Triple-Basis Estimator (3BE), which is capable of operating over datasets with many instances. To the best of our knowledge, the 3BE is the first nonparametric FFR estimator that can scale to massive datasets. We analyze the 3BE's risk and derive an upperbound rate. Furthermore, we show an improvement of several orders of magnitude in terms of prediction speed and a reduction in error over previous estimators in various real-world data-sets.
Concavity of reweighted Kikuchi approximation
We analyze a reweighted version of the Kikuchi approximation for estimating the log partition function of a product distribution defined over a region graph. We establish sufficient conditions for the concavity of our reweighted objective function in terms of weight assignments in the Kikuchi expansion, and show that a reweighted version of the sum product algorithm applied to the Kikuchi region graph will produce global optima of the Kikuchi approximation whenever the algorithm converges. When the region graph has two layers, corresponding to a Bethe approximation, we show that our sufficient conditions for concavity are also necessary. Finally, we provide an explicit characterization of the polytope of concavity in terms of the cycle structure of the region graph. We conclude with simulations that demonstrate the advantages of the reweighted Kikuchi approach.
Local Rademacher Complexity for Multi-label Learning
Xu, Chang, Liu, Tongliang, Tao, Dacheng, Xu, Chao
We analyze the local Rademacher complexity of empirical risk minimization (ERM)-based multi-label learning algorithms, and in doing so propose a new algorithm for multi-label learning. Rather than using the trace norm to regularize the multi-label predictor, we instead minimize the tail sum of the singular values of the predictor in multi-label learning. Benefiting from the use of the local Rademacher complexity, our algorithm, therefore, has a sharper generalization error bound and a faster convergence rate. Compared to methods that minimize over all singular values, concentrating on the tail singular values results in better recovery of the low-rank structure of the multi-label predictor, which plays an import role in exploiting label correlations. We propose a new conditional singular value thresholding algorithm to solve the resulting objective function. Empirical studies on real-world datasets validate our theoretical results and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
A Novel Statistical Method Based on Dynamic Models for Classification
Realizations of stochastic process are often observed temporal data or functional data. There are growing interests in classification of dynamic or functional data. The basic feature of functional data is that the functional data have infinite dimensions and are highly correlated. An essential issue for classifying dynamic and functional data is how to effectively reduce their dimension and explore dynamic feature. However, few statistical methods for dynamic data classification have directly used rich dynamic features of the data. We propose to use second order ordinary differential equation (ODE) to model dynamic process and principal differential analysis to estimate constant or time-varying parameters in the ODE. We examine differential dynamic properties of the dynamic system across different conditions including stability and transient-response, which determine how the dynamic systems maintain their functions and performance under a broad range of random internal and external perturbations. We use the parameters in the ODE as features for classifiers. As a proof of principle, the proposed methods are applied to classifying normal and abnormal QRS complexes in the electrocardiogram (ECG) data analysis, which is of great clinical values in diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases. We show that the ODE-based classification methods in QRS complex classification outperform the currently widely used neural networks with Fourier expansion coefficients of the functional data as their features. We expect that the dynamic model-based classification methods may open a new avenue for functional data classification.
Fully Automated Myocardial Infarction Classification using Ordinary Differential Equations
Portable, Wearable and Wireless electrocardiogram (ECG) Systems have the potential to be used as point-of-care for cardiovascular disease diagnostic systems. Such wearable and wireless ECG systems require automatic detection of cardiovascular disease. Even in the primary care, automation of ECG diagnostic systems will improve efficiency of ECG diagnosis and reduce the minimal training requirement of local healthcare workers. However, few fully automatic myocardial infarction (MI) disease detection algorithms have well been developed. This paper presents a novel automatic MI classification algorithm using second order ordinary differential equation (ODE) with time varying coefficients, which simultaneously captures morphological and dynamic feature of highly correlated ECG signals. By effectively estimating the unobserved state variables and the parameters of the second order ODE, the accuracy of the classification was significantly improved. The estimated time varying coefficients of the second order ODE were used as an input to the support vector machine (SVM) for the MI classification. The proposed method was applied to the PTB diagnostic ECG database within Physionet. The overall sensitivity, specificity, and classification accuracy of 12 lead ECGs for MI binary classifications were 98.7%, 96.4% and 98.3%, respectively. We also found that even using one lead ECG signals, we can reach accuracy as high as 97%. Multiclass MI classification is a challenging task but the developed ODE approach for 12 lead ECGs coupled with multiclass SVM reached 96.4% accuracy for classifying 5 subgroups of MI and healthy controls.
Estimating the intrinsic dimension in fMRI space via dataset fractal analysis - Counting the `cpu cores' of the human brain
Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) is a powerful non-invasive tool for localizing and analyzing brain activity. This study focuses on one very important aspect of the functional properties of human brain, specifically the estimation of the level of parallelism when performing complex cognitive tasks. Using fMRI as the main modality, the human brain activity is investigated through a purely data-driven signal processing and dimensionality analysis approach. Specifically, the fMRI signal is treated as a multi-dimensional data space and its intrinsic `complexity' is studied via dataset fractal analysis and blind-source separation (BSS) methods. One simulated and two real fMRI datasets are used in combination with Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and fractal analysis for estimating the intrinsic (true) dimensionality, in order to provide data-driven experimental evidence on the number of independent brain processes that run in parallel when visual or visuo-motor tasks are performed. Although this number is can not be defined as a strict threshold but rather as a continuous range, when a specific activation level is defined, a corresponding number of parallel processes or the casual equivalent of `cpu cores' can be detected in normal human brain activity.
Online and Stochastic Gradient Methods for Non-decomposable Loss Functions
Kar, Purushottam, Narasimhan, Harikrishna, Jain, Prateek
Modern applications in sensitive domains such as biometrics and medicine frequently require the use of non-decomposable loss functions such as precision@k, F-measure etc. Compared to point loss functions such as hinge-loss, these offer much more fine grained control over prediction, but at the same time present novel challenges in terms of algorithm design and analysis. In this work we initiate a study of online learning techniques for such non-decomposable loss functions with an aim to enable incremental learning as well as design scalable solvers for batch problems. To this end, we propose an online learning framework for such loss functions. Our model enjoys several nice properties, chief amongst them being the existence of efficient online learning algorithms with sublinear regret and online to batch conversion bounds. Our model is a provable extension of existing online learning models for point loss functions. We instantiate two popular losses, prec@k and pAUC, in our model and prove sublinear regret bounds for both of them. Our proofs require a novel structural lemma over ranked lists which may be of independent interest. We then develop scalable stochastic gradient descent solvers for non-decomposable loss functions. We show that for a large family of loss functions satisfying a certain uniform convergence property (that includes prec@k, pAUC, and F-measure), our methods provably converge to the empirical risk minimizer. Such uniform convergence results were not known for these losses and we establish these using novel proof techniques. We then use extensive experimentation on real life and benchmark datasets to establish that our method can be orders of magnitude faster than a recently proposed cutting plane method.
Probabilistic ODE Solvers with Runge-Kutta Means
Schober, Michael, Duvenaud, David, Hennig, Philipp
Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process defining a probability distribution over the ODE solution. In contrast to prior work, we construct this family such that posterior means match the outputs of the Runge-Kutta family exactly, thus inheriting their proven good properties. Remaining degrees of freedom not identified by the match to Runge-Kutta are chosen such that the posterior probability measure fits the observed structure of the ODE. Our results shed light on the structure of Runge-Kutta solvers from a new direction, provide a richer, probabilistic output, have low computational cost, and raise new research questions.