Statistical Learning
From Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics
Bertsimas, Dimitris, Kallus, Nathan
In this paper, we combine ideas from machine learning (ML) and operations research and management science (OR/MS) in developing a framework, along with specific methods, for using data to prescribe decisions in OR/MS problems. In a departure from other work on data-driven optimization and reflecting our practical experience with the data available in applications of OR/MS, we consider data consisting, not only of observations of quantities with direct effect on costs/revenues, such as demand or returns, but predominantly of observations of associated auxiliary quantities. The main problem of interest is a conditional stochastic optimization problem, given imperfect observations, where the joint probability distributions that specify the problem are unknown. We demonstrate that our proposed solution methods are generally applicable to a wide range of decision problems. We prove that they are computationally tractable and asymptotically optimal under mild conditions even when data is not independent and identically distributed (iid) and even for censored observations. As an analogue to the coefficient of determination $R^2$, we develop a metric $P$ termed the coefficient of prescriptiveness to measure the prescriptive content of data and the efficacy of a policy from an operations perspective. To demonstrate the power of our approach in a real-world setting we study an inventory management problem faced by the distribution arm of an international media conglomerate, which ships an average of 1 billion units per year. We leverage both internal data and public online data harvested from IMDb, Rotten Tomatoes, and Google to prescribe operational decisions that outperform baseline measures. Specifically, the data we collect, leveraged by our methods, accounts for an 88% improvement as measured by our coefficient of prescriptiveness.
Particle Gibbs with Ancestor Sampling for Probabilistic Programs
van de Meent, Jan-Willem, Yang, Hongseok, Mansinghka, Vikash, Wood, Frank
Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques rank among current state-of-the-art methods for probabilistic program inference. A drawback of these techniques is that they rely on importance resampling, which results in degenerate particle trajectories and a low effective sample size for variables sampled early in a program. We here develop a formalism to adapt ancestor resampling, a technique that mitigates particle degeneracy, to the probabilistic programming setting. We present empirical results that demonstrate nontrivial performance gains.
Tensor Canonical Correlation Analysis for Multi-view Dimension Reduction
Luo, Yong, Tao, Dacheng, Wen, Yonggang, Ramamohanarao, Kotagiri, Xu, Chao
Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) has proven an effective tool for two-view dimension reduction due to its profound theoretical foundation and success in practical applications. In respect of multi-view learning, however, it is limited by its capability of only handling data represented by two-view features, while in many real-world applications, the number of views is frequently many more. Although the ad hoc way of simultaneously exploring all possible pairs of features can numerically deal with multi-view data, it ignores the high order statistics (correlation information) which can only be discovered by simultaneously exploring all features. Therefore, in this work, we develop tensor CCA (TCCA) which straightforwardly yet naturally generalizes CCA to handle the data of an arbitrary number of views by analyzing the covariance tensor of the different views. TCCA aims to directly maximize the canonical correlation of multiple (more than two) views. Crucially, we prove that the multi-view canonical correlation maximization problem is equivalent to finding the best rank-1 approximation of the data covariance tensor, which can be solved efficiently using the well-known alternating least squares (ALS) algorithm. As a consequence, the high order correlation information contained in the different views is explored and thus a more reliable common subspace shared by all features can be obtained. In addition, a non-linear extension of TCCA is presented. Experiments on various challenge tasks, including large scale biometric structure prediction, internet advertisement classification and web image annotation, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Measuring the functional connectome "on-the-fly": towards a new control signal for fMRI-based brain-computer interfaces
Monti, Ricardo Pio, Lorenz, Romy, Anagnostopoulos, Christoforos, Leech, Robert, Montana, Giovanni
There has been an explosion of interest in functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) during the past two decades. Naturally, this has been accompanied by many major advances in the understanding of the human connectome. These advances have served to pose novel challenges as well as open new avenues for research. One of the most promising and exciting of such avenues is the study of functional MRI in real-time. Such studies have recently gained momentum and have been applied in a wide variety of settings; ranging from training of healthy subjects to self-regulate neuronal activity to being suggested as potential treatments for clinical populations. To date, the vast majority of these studies have focused on a single region at a time. This is due in part to the many challenges faced when estimating dynamic functional connectivity networks in real-time. In this work we propose a novel methodology with which to accurately track changes in functional connectivity networks in real-time. We adapt the recently proposed SINGLE algorithm for estimating sparse and temporally homo- geneous dynamic networks to be applicable in real-time. The proposed method is applied to motor task data from the Human Connectome Project as well as to real-time data ob- tained while exploring a virtual environment. We show that the algorithm is able to estimate significant task-related changes in network structure quickly enough to be useful in future brain-computer interface applications.
Distributed Robust Learning
Feng, Jiashi, Xu, Huan, Mannor, Shie
We propose a framework for distributed robust statistical learning on {\em big contaminated data}. The Distributed Robust Learning (DRL) framework can reduce the computational time of traditional robust learning methods by several orders of magnitude. We analyze the robustness property of DRL, showing that DRL not only preserves the robustness of the base robust learning method, but also tolerates contaminations on a constant fraction of results from computing nodes (node failures). More precisely, even in presence of the most adversarial outlier distribution over computing nodes, DRL still achieves a breakdown point of at least $ \lambda^*/2 $, where $ \lambda^* $ is the break down point of corresponding centralized algorithm. This is in stark contrast with naive division-and-averaging implementation, which may reduce the breakdown point by a factor of $ k $ when $ k $ computing nodes are used. We then specialize the DRL framework for two concrete cases: distributed robust principal component analysis and distributed robust regression. We demonstrate the efficiency and the robustness advantages of DRL through comprehensive simulations and predicting image tags on a large-scale image set.
Learning Rank Functionals: An Empirical Study
Tran, Truyen, Phung, Dinh, Venkatesh, Svetha
Ranking is a key aspect of many applications, such as information retrieval, question answering, ad placement and recommender systems. Learning to rank has the goal of estimating a ranking model automatically from training data. In practical settings, the task often reduces to estimating a rank functional of an object with respect to a query. In this paper, we investigate key issues in designing an effective learning to rank algorithm. These include data representation, the choice of rank functionals, the design of the loss function so that it is correlated with the rank metrics used in evaluation. For the loss function, we study three techniques: approximating the rank metric by a smooth function, decomposition of the loss into a weighted sum of element-wise losses and into a weighted sum of pairwise losses. We then present derivations of piecewise losses using the theory of high-order Markov chains and Markov random fields. In experiments, we evaluate these design aspects on two tasks: answer ranking in a Social Question Answering site, and Web Information Retrieval.
Feature Selection for Linear SVM with Provable Guarantees
Paul, Saurabh, Magdon-Ismail, Malik, Drineas, Petros
We give two provably accurate feature-selection techniques for the linear SVM. The algorithms run in deterministic and randomized time respectively. Our algorithms can be used in an unsupervised or supervised setting. The supervised approach is based on sampling features from support vectors. We prove that the margin in the feature space is preserved to within $\epsilon$-relative error of the margin in the full feature space in the worst-case. In the unsupervised setting, we also provide worst-case guarantees of the radius of the minimum enclosing ball, thereby ensuring comparable generalization as in the full feature space and resolving an open problem posed in Dasgupta et al. We present extensive experiments on real-world datasets to support our theory and to demonstrate that our method is competitive and often better than prior state-of-the-art, for which there are no known provable guarantees.
Massively Multitask Networks for Drug Discovery
Ramsundar, Bharath, Kearnes, Steven, Riley, Patrick, Webster, Dale, Konerding, David, Pande, Vijay
Massively multitask neural architectures provide a learning framework for drug discovery that synthesizes information from many distinct biological sources. To train these architectures at scale, we gather large amounts of data from public sources to create a dataset of nearly 40 million measurements across more than 200 biological targets. We investigate several aspects of the multitask framework by performing a series of empirical studies and obtain some interesting results: (1) massively multitask networks obtain predictive accuracies significantly better than single-task methods, (2) the predictive power of multitask networks improves as additional tasks and data are added, (3) the total amount of data and the total number of tasks both contribute significantly to multitask improvement, and (4) multitask networks afford limited transferability to tasks not in the training set. Our results underscore the need for greater data sharing and further algorithmic innovation to accelerate the drug discovery process.
Active Function Cross-Entropy Clustering
Spurek, P., Tabor, J., Markowicz, P.
Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) have found many applications in density estimation and data clustering. However, the model does not adapt well to curved and strongly nonlinear data. Recently there appeared an improvement called AcaGMM (Active curve axis Gaussian Mixture Model), which fits Gaussians along curves using an EM-like (Expectation Maximization) approach. Using the ideas standing behind AcaGMM, we build an alternative active function model of clustering, which has some advantages over AcaGMM. In particular it is naturally defined in arbitrary dimensions and enables an easy adaptation to clustering of complicated datasets along the predefined family of functions. Moreover, it does not need external methods to determine the number of clusters as it automatically reduces the number of groups on-line.
Multiscale Event Detection in Social Media
Dong, Xiaowen, Mavroeidis, Dimitrios, Calabrese, Francesco, Frossard, Pascal
Event detection has been one of the most important research topics in social media analysis. Most of the traditional approaches detect events based on fixed temporal and spatial resolutions, while in reality events of different scales usually occur simultaneously, namely, they span different intervals in time and space. In this paper, we propose a novel approach towards multiscale event detection using social media data, which takes into account different temporal and spatial scales of events in the data. Specifically, we explore the properties of the wavelet transform, which is a well-developed multiscale transform in signal processing, to enable automatic handling of the interaction between temporal and spatial scales. We then propose a novel algorithm to compute a data similarity graph at appropriate scales and detect events of different scales simultaneously by a single graph-based clustering process. Furthermore, we present spatiotemporal statistical analysis of the noisy information present in the data stream, which allows us to define a novel term-filtering procedure for the proposed event detection algorithm and helps us study its behavior using simulated noisy data. Experimental results on both synthetically generated data and real world data collected from Twitter demonstrate the meaningfulness and effectiveness of the proposed approach. Our framework further extends to numerous application domains that involve multiscale and multiresolution data analysis.