Advertising effectiveness measurement is a fundamental problem in online advertising. Various causal inference methods have been employed to measure the causal effects of ad treatments. However, existing methods mainly focus on linear logistic regression for univariate and binary treatments and are not well suited for complex ad treatments of multi-dimensions, where each dimension could be discrete or continuous. In this paper we propose a novel two-stage causal inference framework for assessing the impact of complex ad treatments. In the first stage, we estimate the propensity parameter via a sparse additive model; in the second stage, a propensity-adjusted regression model is applied for measuring the treatment effect. Our approach is shown to provide an unbiased estimation of the ad effectiveness under regularity conditions. To demonstrate the efficacy of our approach, we apply it to a real online advertising campaign to evaluate the impact of three ad treatments: ad frequency, ad channel, and ad size. We show that the ad frequency usually has a treatment effect cap when ads are showing on mobile device. In addition, the strategies for choosing best ad size are completely different for mobile ads and online ads.

Understanding the demographics of users of online social networks has important applications for health, marketing, and public messaging. In this paper, we predict the demographics of Twitter users based on whom they follow. Whereas most prior approaches rely on a supervised learning approach, in which individual users are labeled with demographics, we instead create a distantly labeled dataset by collecting audience measurement data for 1,500 websites (e.g., 50% of visitors to gizmodo.com are estimated to have a bachelor's degree). We then fit a regression model to predict these demographics using information about the followers of each website on Twitter. The resulting average held-out correlation is .77 across six different variables (gender, age, ethnicity, education, income, and child status). We additionally validate the model on a smaller set of Twitter users labeled individually for ethnicity and gender, finding performance that is surprisingly competitive with a fully supervised approach.

Typically a user prefers an item (e.g., a movie) because she likes certain features of the item (e.g., director, genre, producer). This observation motivates us to consider a feature-centric recommendation approach to item recommendation: instead of directly predicting the rating on items, we predict the rating on the features of items, and use such ratings to derive the rating on an item. This approach offers several advantages over the traditional item-centric approach: it incorporates more information about why a user chooses an item, it generalizes better due to the denser feature rating data, it explains the prediction of item ratings through the predicted feature ratings. Another contribution is turning a principled item-centric solution into a feature-centric solution, instead of inventing a new algorithm that is feature-centric. This approach maximally leverages previous research. We demonstrate this approach by turning the traditional item-centric latent factor model into a feature-centric solution and demonstrate its superiority over item-centric approaches.

Predicting the affective valence of unknown multi-word expressions is key for concept-level sentiment analysis. AffectiveSpace 2 is a vector space model, built by means of random projection, that allows for reasoning by analogy on natural language con- cepts. By reducing the dimensionality of affec- tive common-sense knowledge, the model allows semantic features associated with concepts to be generalized and, hence, allows concepts to be intu- itively clustered according to their semantic and affective relatedness. Such an affective intuition (so called because it does not rely on explicit fea- tures, but rather on implicit analogies) enables the inference of emotions and polarity conveyed by multi-word expressions, thus achieving efficient concept-level sentiment analysis.

The short-term reconsumption behaviors, i.e. “reconsume” the near past, account for a large proportion of people’s activities every day and everywhere. In this paper, we firstly derived four generic features which influence people’s short-term reconsumption behaviors. These features were extracted with respect to different roles in the process of reconsumption behaviors, i.e. users, items and interactions. Then, we brought forward two fast algorithms with the linear and the quadratic kernels to predict whether a user will perform a short-term reconsumption at a specific time given the context. The experimental results show that our proposed algorithms are more accurate in the prediction tasks compared with the baselines. Meanwhile, the time complexity of online prediction of our algorithms is O(1), which enables fast prediction in real-world scenarios. The prediction contributes to more intelligent decision-making, e.g. potential revisited customer identification, personalized recommendation, and information re-finding.

As Machine Learning (ML) applications embrace greater data size and model complexity, practitioners turn to distributed clusters to satisfy the increased computational and memory demands. Effective use of clusters for ML programs requires considerable expertise in writing distributed code, but existing highly-abstracted frameworks like Hadoop that pose low barriers to distributed-programming have not, in practice, matched the performance seen in highly specialized and advanced ML implementations. The recent Parameter Server (PS) paradigm is a middle ground between these extremes, allowing easy conversion of single-machine parallel ML programs into distributed ones, while maintaining high throughput through relaxed ``consistency models" that allow asynchronous (and, hence, inconsistent) parameter reads. However, due to insufficient theoretical study, it is not clear which of these consistency models can really ensure correct ML algorithm output; at the same time, there remain many theoretically-motivated but undiscovered opportunities to maximize computational throughput. Inspired by this challenge, we study both the theoretical guarantees and empirical behavior of iterative-convergent ML algorithms in existing PS consistency models. We then use the gleaned insights to improve a consistency model using an "eager" PS communication mechanism, and implement it as a new PS system that enables ML programs to reach their solution more quickly.

In this paper, we propose a novel collaborative filtering approach for predicting the unobserved links in a network (or graph) with both topological and node features. Our approach improves the well-known compressed sensing based matrix completion method by introducing a new multiple-independent-Bernoulli-distribution model as the data sampling mask. It makes better link predictions since the model is more general and better matches the data distributions in many real-world networks, such as social networks like Facebook. As a result, a satisfying stability of the prediction can be guaranteed. To obtain an accurate multiple-independent-Bernoulli-distribution model of the topological feature space, our approach adjusts the sampling of the adjacency matrix of the network (or graph) using the clustering information in the node feature space. This yields a better performance than those methods which simply combine the two types of features. Experimental results on several benchmark datasets suggest that our approach outperforms the best existing link prediction methods.

The ability to determine patient acuity (or severity of illness) has immediate practical use for clinicians. We evaluate the use of multivariate timeseries modeling with the multi-task Gaussian process (GP) models using noisy, incomplete, sparse, heterogeneous and unevenly-sampled clinical data, including both physiological signals and clinical notes. The learned multi-task GP (MTGP) hyperparameters are then used to assess and forecast patient acuity. Experiments were conducted with two real clinical data sets acquired from ICU patients: firstly, estimating cerebrovascular pressure reactivity, an important indicator of secondary damage for traumatic brain injury patients, by learning the interactions between intracranial pressure and mean arterial blood pressure signals, and secondly, mortality prediction using clinical progress notes. In both cases, MTGPs provided improved results: an MTGP model provided better results than single-task GP models for signal interpolation and forecasting (0.91 vs 0.69 RMSE), and the use of MTGP hyperparameters obtained improved results when used as additional classification features (0.812 vs 0.788 AUC).

User-generated reviews are valuable resources for decision making. Identifying the aspect categories discussed in a given review sentence (e.g., “food” and “service” in restaurant reviews) is an important task of sentiment analysis and opinion mining. Given a predefined aspect category set, most previous researches leverage hand-crafted features and a classification algorithm to accomplish the task. The crucial step to achieve better performance is feature engineering which consumes much human effort and may be unstable when the product domain changes. In this paper, we propose a representation learning approach to automatically learn useful features for aspect category detection. Specifically, a semi-supervised word embedding algorithm is first proposed to obtain continuous word representations on a large set of reviews with noisy labels. Afterwards, we propose to generate deeper and hybrid features through neural networks stacked on the word vectors. A logistic regression classifier is finally trained with the hybrid features to predict the aspect category. The experiments are carried out on a benchmark dataset released by SemEval-2014. Our approach achieves the state-of-the-art performance and outperforms the best participating team as well as a few strong baselines.

Collective social and behavioral information commonly exists in nature. There is a widespread intuitive sense that the characteristics of these social and behavioral information are to some extend related to the themes (or semantics) of the activities or targets. In this paper, we explicitly validate the interplay of collective social behavioral information and group themes using a large scale real dataset of online groups, and demonstrate the possibility of perceiving group themes from collective social and behavioral information. We propose a REgularized miXEd Regression (REXER) model based on matrix factorization to infer hierarchical semantics (including both group category and group labels) from collective social and behavioral information of group members. We extensively evaluate the proposed method in a large scale real online group dataset. For the prediction of group themes, the proposed REXER achieves satisfactory performances in various criterions. More specifically, we can predict the category of a group (among 6 categories) purely based on the collective social and behavioral information of the group with the Precision@1 to be 55.16% , without any assistance from group labels or conversation contents. We also show, perhaps counterintuitively, that the collective social and behavioral information is more reliable than the titles and labels of groups for inferring the group categories.