Statistical Learning
Person Identification Using Anthropometric and Gait Data from Kinect Sensor
Andersson, Virginia Ortiz (Federal University of Pelotas) | Araujo, Ricardo Matsumura (Federal University of Pelotas)
Uniquely identifying individuals using anthropometric and gait data allows for passive biometric systems, where cooperation from the subjects being identified is not required. In this paper, we report on experiments using a novel data set composed of 140 individuals walking in front of a Microsoft Kinect sensor. We provide a methodology to extract anthropometric and gait features from this data and show results of applying different machine learning algorithms on subject identification tasks. Focusing on KNN classifiers, we discuss how accuracy varies in different settings, including number of individuals in a gallery, types of attributes used and number of considered neighbors. Finally, we compare the obtained results with other results in the literature, showing that our approach has comparable accuracy for large galleries.
Incorporating Implicit Link Preference Into Overlapping Community Detection
Zhang, Hongyi (The Chinese University of Hong Kong) | King, Irwin (The Chinese University of Hong Kong) | Lyu, Michael R. (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)
Community detection is an important technique to understand structures and patterns in complex networks. Recently, overlapping community detection becomes a trend due to the ubiquity of overlapping and nested communities in real world. However, existing approaches have ignored the use of implicit link preference information, i.e., links can reflect a node's preference on the targets of connections it wants to build. This information has strong impact on community detection since a node prefers to build links with nodes inside its community than those outside its community. In this paper, we propose a preference-based nonnegative matrix factorization (PNMF) model to incorporate implicit link preference information. Unlike conventional matrix factorization approaches, which simply approximate the original adjacency matrix in value, our model maximizes the likelihood of the preference order for each node by following the intuition that a node prefers its neighbors than other nodes. Our model overcomes the indiscriminate penalty problem in which non-linked pairs inside one community are equally penalized in objective functions as those across two communities. We propose a learning algorithm which can learn a node-community membership matrix via stochastic gradient descent with bootstrap sampling. We evaluate our PNMF model on several real-world networks. Experimental results show that our model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches and can be applied to large datasets.
Learning Large-Scale Dynamic Discrete Choice Models of Spatio-Temporal Preferences with Application to Migratory Pastoralism in East Africa
Ermon, Stefano (Stanford University) | Xue, Yexiang (Cornell University) | Toth, Russell (University of Sydney) | Dilkina, Bistra (Georgia Institute of Technology) | Bernstein, Richard (Cornell University) | Damoulas, Theodoros (NYU CUSP) | Clark, Patrick (USDA Research Service) | DeGloria, Steve (Cornell University) | Mude, Andrew (International Livestock Research Institute) | Barrett, Christopher (Cornell University) | Gomes, Carla P. (Cornell University)
Understanding spatio-temporal resource preferences is paramount in the design of policies for sustainable development. Unfortunately, resource preferences are often unknown to policy-makers and have to be inferred from data. In this paper we consider the problem of inferring agents' preferences from observed movement trajectories, and formulate it as an Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) problem . With the goal of informing policy-making, we take a probabilistic approach and consider generative models that can be used to simulate behavior under new circumstances such as changes in resource availability, access policies, or climate. We study the Dynamic Discrete Choice (DDC) models from econometrics and prove that they generalize the Max-Entropy IRL model, a widely used probabilistic approach from the machine learning literature. Furthermore, we develop SPL-GD, a new learning algorithm for DDC models that is considerably faster than the state of the art and scales to very large datasets. We consider an application in the context of pastoralism in the arid and semi-arid regions of Africa, where migratory pastoralists face regular risks due to resource availability, droughts, and resource degradation from climate change and development. We show how our approach based on satellite and survey data can accurately model migratory pastoralism in East Africa and that it considerably outperforms other approaches on a large-scale real-world dataset of pastoralists' movements in Ethiopia collected over 3 years.
R1SVM: A Randomised Nonlinear Approach to Large-Scale Anomaly Detection
Erfani, Sarah M. (The University of Melbourne) | Baktashmotlagh, Mahsa (NICTA Victoria Research Laboratory) | Rajasegarar, Sutharshan (NICTA Victoria Research Laboratory) | Karunasekera, Shanika (The University of Melbourne) | Leckie, Chris (The University of Melbourne)
The problem of unsupervised anomaly detection arises in awide variety of practical applications. While one-class sup-port vector machines have demonstrated their effectiveness asan anomaly detection technique, their ability to model largedatasets is limited due to their memory and time complexityfor training. To address this issue for supervised learning ofkernel machines, there has been growing interest in randomprojection methods as an alternative to the computationallyexpensive problems of kernel matrix construction and sup-port vector optimisation. In this paper we leverage the theoryof nonlinear random projections and propose the RandomisedOne-class SVM (R1SVM), which is an efficient and scalableanomaly detection technique that can be trained on large-scale datasets. Our empirical analysis on several real-life andsynthetic datasets shows that our randomised 1SVM algo-rithm achieves comparable or better accuracy to deep autoen-coder and traditional kernelised approaches for anomaly de-tection, while being approximately 100 times faster in train-ing and testing
Personalized Tag Recommendation through Nonlinear Tensor Factorization Using Gaussian Kernel
Fang, Xiaomin (Sun Yat-sen University) | Pan, Rong (Sun Yat-sen University) | Cao, Guoxiang (Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd) | He, Xiuqiang (Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd) | Dai, Wenyuan (Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd)
Personalized tag recommendation systems recommend a list of tags to a user when he is about to annotate an item. It exploits the individual preference and the characteristic of the items. Tensor factorization tech- niques have been applied to many applications, such as tag recommendation. Models based on Tucker Decomposition can achieve good performance but require a lot of computation power. On the other hand, mod- els based on Canonical Decomposition can run in linear time and are more feasible for online recommendation. In this paper, we propose a novel method for personalized tag recommendation, which can be considered as a nonlinear extension of Canonical Decomposition. Different from linear tensor factorization, we exploit Gaussian radial basis function to increase the model’s capacity. The experimental results show that our proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods for tag recommendation on real datasets and perform well even with a small number of features, which verifies that our models can make better use of features.
Using Matched Samples to Estimate the Effects of Exercise on Mental Health via Twitter
Reis, Virgile Landeiro Dos (Illinois Institute of Technology) | Culotta, Aron (Illinois Institute of Technology)
Recent work has demonstrated the value of social media monitoring for health surveillance (e.g., tracking influenza or depression rates). It is an open question whether such data can be used to make causal inferences (e.g., determining which activities lead to increased depression rates). Even in traditional, restricted domains, estimating causal effects from observational data is highly susceptible to confounding bias. In this work, we estimate the effect of exercise on mental health from Twitter, relying on statistical matching methods to reduce confounding bias. We train a text classifier to estimate the volume of a user's tweets expressing anxiety, depression, or anger, then compare two groups: those who exercise regularly (identified by their use of physical activity trackers like Nike+), and a matched control group. We find that those who exercise regularly have significantly fewer tweets expressing depression or anxiety; there is no significant difference in rates of tweets expressing anger. We additionally perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate how the many experimental design choices in such a study impact the final conclusions, including the quality of the classifier and the construction of the control group.
Initializing Bayesian Hyperparameter Optimization via Meta-Learning
Feurer, Matthias (University of Freiburg) | Springenberg, Jost Tobias (University of Freiburg) | Hutter, Frank (University of Freiburg)
Model selection and hyperparameter optimization is crucial in applying machine learning to a novel dataset. Recently, a subcommunity of machine learning has focused on solving this problem with Sequential Model-based Bayesian Optimization (SMBO), demonstrating substantial successes in many applications. However, for computationally expensive algorithms the overhead of hyperparameter optimization can still be prohibitive. In this paper we mimic a strategy human domain experts use: speed up optimization by starting from promising configurations that performed well on similar datasets. The resulting initialization technique integrates naturally into the generic SMBO framework and can be trivially applied to any SMBO method. To validate our approach, we perform extensive experiments with two established SMBO frameworks (Spearmint and SMAC) with complementary strengths; optimizing two machine learning frameworks on 57 datasets. Our initialization procedure yields mild improvements for low-dimensional hyperparameter optimization and substantially improves the state of the art for the more complex combined algorithm selection and hyperparameter optimization problem.
Efficient Benchmarking of Hyperparameter Optimizers via Surrogates
Eggensperger, Katharina (University of Freiburg) | Hutter, Frank (University of Freiburg) | Hoos, Holger (University of British Columbia) | Leyton-Brown, Kevin (University of British Columbia)
Hyperparameter optimization is crucial for achieving peak performance with many machine learning algorithms; however, the evaluation of new optimization techniques on real-world hyperparameter optimization problems can be very expensive. Therefore, experiments are often performed using cheap synthetic test functions with characteristics rather different from those of real benchmarks of interest. In this work, we introduce another option: cheap-to-evaluate surrogates of real hyperparameter optimization benchmarks that share the same hyperparameter spaces and feature similar response surfaces. Specifically, we train regression models on data describing a machine learning algorithm’s performance depending on its hyperparameter setting, and then cheaply evaluate hyperparameter optimization methods using the model’s performance predictions in lieu of running the real algorithm. We evaluated a wide range of regression techniques, both in terms of how well they predict the performance of new hyperparameter settings and in terms of the quality of surrogate benchmarks obtained. We found that tree-based models capture the performance of several machine learning algorithms well and yield surrogate benchmarks that closely resemble real-world benchmarks, while being much easier to use and orders of magnitude cheaper to evaluate.
Influence-Driven Model for Time Series Prediction from Partial Observations
Aman, Saima (University of Southern California) | Chelmis, Charalampos (University of Southern California) | Prasanna, Viktor K. (University of Southern California)
Applications in sustainability domains such as in energy, transportation, and natural resource and environment monitoring, increasingly use sensors for collecting data and sending it back to centrally located processing nodes. While data can usually be collected by the sensors at a very high speed, in many cases, it can not be sent back to central nodes at a frequency that is required for fast and real-time modeling and decision-making. This may be due to physical limitations of the transmission networks, or due to consumers limiting frequent transmission of data from sensors located at their premises for security and privacy concerns. We propose a novel solution to the problem of making short term predictions in absence of real-time data from sensors. A key implication of our work is that by using real-time data from only a small subset of influential sensors, we are able to make predictions for all sen- sors. We evaluated our approach with a large real-world electricity consumption data collected from smart meters in Los Angeles and the results show that between prediction horizons of 2 to 8 hours, despite lack of real time data, our influence model outperforms the baseline model that uses real-time data. Also, when using partial real-time data from only ≈ 7% influential smart meters, we witness prediction error increase by only ≈ 0.5% over the baseline, thus demonstrating the usefulness of our method for practical scenarios.
Effectively Predicting Whether and When a Topic Will Become Prevalent in a Social Network
Liu, Weiwei (University of Technology) | Deng, Zhi-Hong (Peking University) | Gong, Xiuwen (Anhui Normal University) | Jiang, Frank (University of New South Wales) | Tsang, Ivor W. (University of Technology)
Effective forecasting of future prevalent topics plays animportant role in social network business development.It involves two challenging aspects: predicting whethera topic will become prevalent, and when. This cannotbe directly handled by the existing algorithms in topicmodeling, item recommendation and action forecasting.The classic forecasting framework based on time seriesmodels may be able to predict a hot topic when a seriesof periodical changes to user-addressed frequency in asystematic way. However, the frequency of topics discussedby users often changes irregularly in social networks.In this paper, a generic probabilistic frameworkis proposed for hot topic prediction, and machine learningmethods are explored to predict hot topic patterns.Two effective models, PreWHether and PreWHen, areintroduced to predict whether and when a topic will becomeprevalent. In the PreWHether model, we simulatethe constructed features of previously observed frequencychanges for better prediction. In the PreWHen model,distributions of time intervals associated with the emergenceto prevalence of a topic are modeled. Extensiveexperiments on real datasets demonstrate that ourmethod outperforms the baselines and generates moreeffective predictions.