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 Statistical Learning


Collaborative Filtering with Localised Ranking

AAAI Conferences

In recommendation systems, one is interested in the ranking of the predicted items as opposed to other losses such as the mean squared error. Although a variety of ways to evaluate rankings exist in the literature, here we focus on the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) as it widely used and has a strong theoretical underpinning. In practical recommendation, only items at the top of the ranked list are presented to the users. With this in mind we propose a class of objective functions which primarily represent a smooth surrogate for the real AUC, and in a special case we show how to prioritise the top of the list. This loss is differentiable and is optimised through a carefully designed stochastic gradient-descent-based algorithm which scales linearly with the size of the data. We mitigate sample bias present in the data by sampling observations according to a certain power-law based distribution. In addition, we provide computation results as to the efficacy of the proposed method using synthetic and real data.


Detecting and Tracking Concept Class Drift and Emergence in Non-Stationary Fast Data Streams

AAAI Conferences

As the proliferation of constant data feeds increases from social media, embedded sensors, and other sources, the capability to provide predictive concept labels to these data streams will become ever more important and lucrative. However, the dynamic, non-stationary nature, and effectively infinite length of data streams pose additional challenges for stream data mining algorithms. The sparse quantity of training data also limits the use of algorithms that are heavily dependent on supervised training. To address all these issues, we propose an incremental semi-supervised method that provides general concept class label predictions, but it also tracks concept clusters within the feature space using an innovative new online clustering algorithm. Each concept cluster contains an embedded stream classifier, creating a diverse ensemble for data instance classification within the generative model used for detecting emerging concepts in the stream. Unlike other recent novel class detection methods, our method goes beyond detecting, and continues to differentiate and track the emerging concepts. We show the effectiveness of our method on several synthetic and real world data sets, and we compare the results against other leading baseline methods.


The Dynamic Chinese Restaurant Process via Birth and Death Processes

AAAI Conferences

We develop the Dynamic Chinese Restaurant Process (DCRP) which incorporates time-evolutionary feature in dependent Dirichlet Process mixture models. This model can capture the dynamic change of mixture components, allowing clusters to emerge, vanish and vary over time. All these macroscopic changes are controlled by tracing the birth and death of every single element. We investigate the  properties of dependent Dirichlet Process mixture model based on DCRP and develop corresponding Gibbs Sampler for posterior inference. We also conduct simulation and empirical studies to compare this model with traditional CRP and related models. The results show that this model can provide better results for sequential data, especially for data with heterogeneous lifetime distribution.


Exploiting Task-Feature Co-Clusters in Multi-Task Learning

AAAI Conferences

In multi-task learning, multiple related tasks are considered simultaneously, with the goal to improve the generalization performance by utilizing the intrinsic sharing of information across tasks. This paper presents a multi-task learning approach by modeling the task-feature relationships. Specifically, instead of assuming that similar tasks have similar weights on all the features, we start with the motivation that the tasks should be related in terms of subsets of features, which implies a co-cluster structure. We design a novel regularization term to capture this task-feature co-cluster structure. A proximal algorithm is adopted to solve the optimization problem. Convincing experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and justify the idea of exploiting the task-feature relationships.


Scalable and Interpretable Data Representation for High-Dimensional, Complex Data

AAAI Conferences

The majority of machine learning research has been focused on building models and inference techniques with sound mathematical properties and cutting edge performance. Little attention has been devoted to the development of data representation that can be used to improve a user's ability to interpret the data and machine learning models to solve real-world problems. In this paper, we quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate an efficient, accurate and scalable feature-compression method using latent Dirichlet allocation for discrete data. This representation can effectively communicate the characteristics of high-dimensional, complex data points. We show that the improvement of a user's interpretability through the use of a topic modeling-based compression technique is statistically significant, according to a number of metrics, when compared with other representations. Also, we find that this representation is scalable --- it maintains alignment with human classification accuracy as an increasing number of data points are shown. In addition, the learned topic layer can semantically deliver meaningful information to users that could potentially aid human reasoning about data characteristics in connection with compressed topic space.


Forecasting Collector Road Speeds Under High Percentage of Missing Data

AAAI Conferences

Accurate road speed predictions can help drivers in smart route planning. Although the issue has been studied previously, most existing work focus on arterial roads only, where sensors are configured closely for collecting complete real-time data. For collector roads where sensors sparsly cover, however, speed predictions are often ignored. With GPS-equipped floating car signals being available nowadays, we aim at forecasting collector road speeds by utilizing these signals. The main challenge compared with arterial roads comes from the missing data. In a time slot of the real case, over 90% of collector roads cannot be covered by enough floating cars. Thus most traditional approaches for arterial roads, relying on complete historical data, cannot be employed directly. Aiming at solving this problem, we propose a multi-view road speed prediction framework. In the first view, temporal patterns are modeled by a layered hidden Markov model; and in the second view, spatial patterns are modeled by a collective matrix factorization model. The two models are learned and inferred simultaneously in a co-regularized manner. Experiments conducted in the Beijing road network, based on 10K taxi signals in 2 years, have demonstrated that the approach outperforms traditional approaches by 10% in MAE and RMSE.


Kernelized Online Imbalanced Learning with Fixed Budgets

AAAI Conferences

Online learning from imbalanced streaming data to capture the nonlinearity and heterogeneity of the data is significant in machine learning and data mining. To tackle this problem, we propose a kernelized online imbalanced learning (KOIL) algorithm to directly maximize the area under the ROC curve (AUC). We address two more challenges: 1) How to control the number of support vectors without sacrificing model performance; and 2) how to restrict the fluctuation of the learned decision function to attain smooth updating. To this end, we introduce two buffers with fixed budgets (buffer sizes) for positive class and negative class, respectively, to store the learned support vectors, which can allow us to capture the global information of the decision boundary. When determining the weight of a new support vector, we confine its influence only to its $k$-nearest opposite support vectors. This can restrict the effect of new instances and prevent the harm of outliers. More importantly, we design a sophisticated scheme to compensate the model after replacement is conducted when either buffer is full. With this compensation, the learned model approaches the one learned with infinite budgets. We present both theoretical analysis and extensive experimental comparison to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed KOIL.


Predicting Peer-to-Peer Loan Rates Using Bayesian Non-Linear Regression

AAAI Conferences

Peer-to-peer lending is a new highly liquid market for debt, which is rapidly growing in popularity. Here we consider modelling market rates, developing a non-linear Gaussian Process regression method which incorporates both structured data and unstructured text from the loan application. We show that the peer-to-peer market is predictable, and identify a small set of key factors with high predictive power. Our approach outperforms baseline methods for predicting market rates, and generates substantial profit in a trading simulation.


Building Effective Representations for Sketch Recognition

AAAI Conferences

As the popularity of touch-screen devices, understanding a user's hand-drawn sketch has become an increasingly important research topic in artificial intelligence and computer vision. However, different from natural images, the hand-drawn sketches are often highly abstract, with sparse visual information and large intra-class variance, making the problem more challenging. In this work, we study how to build effective representations for sketch recognition. First, to capture saliency patterns of different scales and spatial arrangements, a Gabor-based low-level representation is proposed. Then, based on this representation, to discovery more complex patterns in a sketch, a Hybrid Multilayer Sparse Coding (HMSC) model is proposed to learn mid-level representations. An improved dictionary learning algorithm is also leveraged in HMSC to reduce overfitting to common but trivial patterns. Extensive experiments show that the proposed representations are highly discriminative and lead to large improvements over the state of the arts.


Robust Subspace Clustering via Thresholding Ridge Regression

AAAI Conferences

Given a data set from a union of multiple linear subspaces, a robust subspace clustering algorithm fits each group of data points with a low-dimensional subspace and then clusters these data even though they are grossly corrupted or sampled from the union of dependent subspaces. Under the framework of spectral clustering, recent works using sparse representation, low rank representation and their extensions achieve robust clustering results by formulating the errors (e.g., corruptions) into their objective functions so that the errors can be removed from the inputs. However, these approaches have suffered from the limitation that the structure of the errors should be known as the prior knowledge. In this paper, we present a new method of robust subspace clustering by eliminating the effect of the errors from the projection space (representation) rather than from the input space. We firstly prove that ell_1-, ell_2-, and ell_infty-norm-based linear projection spaces share the property of intra-subspace projection dominance, i.e., the coefficients over intra-subspace data points are larger than those over inter-subspace data points. Based on this property, we propose a robust and efficient subspace clustering algorithm, called Thresholding Ridge Regression (TRR). TRR calculates the ell2-norm-based coefficients of a given data set and performs a hard thresholding operator; and then the coefficients are used to build a similarity graph for clustering. Experimental studies show that TRR outperforms the state-of-the-art methods with respect to clustering quality, robustness, and time-saving.