We obtain the conditions for the emergence of the swarm intelligence effect in an interactive game of restless multi-armed bandit (rMAB). A player competes with multiple agents. Each bandit has a payoff that changes with a probability $p_{c}$ per round. The agents and player choose one of three options: (1) Exploit (a good bandit), (2) Innovate (asocial learning for a good bandit among $n_{I}$ randomly chosen bandits), and (3) Observe (social learning for a good bandit). Each agent has two parameters $(c,p_{obs})$ to specify the decision: (i) $c$, the threshold value for Exploit, and (ii) $p_{obs}$, the probability for Observe in learning. The parameters $(c,p_{obs})$ are uniformly distributed. We determine the optimal strategies for the player using complete knowledge about the rMAB. We show whether or not social or asocial learning is more optimal in the $(p_{c},n_{I})$ space and define the swarm intelligence effect. We conduct a laboratory experiment (67 subjects) and observe the swarm intelligence effect only if $(p_{c},n_{I})$ are chosen so that social learning is far more optimal than asocial learning.

We consider an enlarged dimension reduction space in functional inverse regression. Our operator and functional analysis based approach facilitates a compact and rigorous formulation of the functional inverse regression problem. It also enables us to expand the possible space where the dimension reduction functions belong. Our formulation provides a unified framework so that the classical notions, such as covariance standardization, Mahalanobis distance, SIR and linear discriminant analysis, can be naturally and smoothly carried out in our enlarged space. This enlarged dimension reduction space also links to the linear discriminant space of Gaussian measures on a separable Hilbert space.

Community detection is a fundamental problem in network analysis which is made more challenging by overlaps between communities which often occur in practice. Here we propose a general, flexible, and interpretable generative model for overlapping communities, which can be thought of as a generalization of the degree-corrected stochastic block model. We develop an efficient spectral algorithm for estimating the community memberships, which deals with the overlaps by employing the K-medians algorithm rather than the usual K-means for clustering in the spectral domain. We show that the algorithm is asymptotically consistent when networks are not too sparse and the overlaps between communities not too large. Numerical experiments on both simulated networks and many real social networks demonstrate that our method performs very well compared to a number of benchmark methods for overlapping community detection.

We describe various sets of conditional independence relationships, sufficient for qualitatively comparing non-vanishing squared partial correlations of a Gaussian random vector. These sufficient conditions are satisfied by several graphical Markov models. Rules for comparing degree of association among the vertices of such Gaussian graphical models are also developed. We apply these rules to compare conditional dependencies on Gaussian trees. In particular for trees, we show that such dependence can be completely characterized by the length of the paths joining the dependent vertices to each other and to the vertices conditioned on. We also apply our results to postulate rules for model selection for polytree models. Our rules apply to mutual information of Gaussian random vectors as well.

We present a parallelized bijective graph matching algorithm that leverages seeds and is designed to match very large graphs. Our algorithm combines spectral graph embedding with existing state-of-the-art seeded graph matching procedures. We justify our approach by proving that modestly correlated, large stochastic block model random graphs are correctly matched utilizing very few seeds through our divide-and-conquer procedure. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in matching very large graphs in simulated and real data examples, showing up to a factor of 8 improvement in runtime with minimal sacrifice in accuracy.

In the recent years, the desire and need to understand sequential data has been increasing, with particular interest in sequential contexts such as patient monitoring, understanding daily activities, video surveillance, stock market and the like. Along with the constant flow of data, it is critical to classify and segment the observations on-the-fly, without being limited to a rigid number of classes. In addition, the model needs to be capable of updating its parameters to comply with possible evolutions. This interesting problem, however, is not adequately addressed in the literature since many studies focus on offline classification over a pre-defined class set. In this paper, we propose a principled solution to this gap by introducing an adaptive online system based on Markov switching models with hierarchical Dirichlet process priors. This infinite adaptive online approach is capable of segmenting and classifying the sequential data over unlimited number of classes, while meeting the memory and delay constraints of streaming contexts. The model is further enhanced by introducing a learning rate, responsible for balancing the extent to which the model sustains its previous learning (parameters) or adapts to the new streaming observations. Experimental results on several variants of stationary and evolving synthetic data and two video datasets, TUM Assistive Kitchen and collatedWeizmann, show remarkable performance in segmentation and classification, particularly for evolutionary sequences with changing distributions and/or containing new, unseen classes.

Kernel approximation via nonlinear random feature maps is widely used in speeding up kernel machines. There are two main challenges for the conventional kernel approximation methods. First, before performing kernel approximation, a good kernel has to be chosen. Picking a good kernel is a very challenging problem in itself. Second, high-dimensional maps are often required in order to achieve good performance. This leads to high computational cost in both generating the nonlinear maps, and in the subsequent learning and prediction process. In this work, we propose to optimize the nonlinear maps directly with respect to the classification objective in a data-dependent fashion. The proposed approach achieves kernel approximation and kernel learning in a joint framework. This leads to much more compact maps without hurting the performance. As a by-product, the same framework can also be used to achieve more compact kernel maps to approximate a known kernel. We also introduce Circulant Nonlinear Maps, which uses a circulant-structured projection matrix to speed up the nonlinear maps for high-dimensional data.

A popular tool for unsupervised modelling and mining multi-aspect data is tensor decomposition. In an exploratory setting, where and no labels or ground truth are available how can we automatically decide how many components to extract? How can we assess the quality of our results, so that a domain expert can factor this quality measure in the interpretation of our results? In this paper, we introduce AutoTen, a novel automatic unsupervised tensor mining algorithm with minimal user intervention, which leverages and improves upon heuristics that assess the result quality. We extensively evaluate AutoTen's performance on synthetic data, outperforming existing baselines on this very hard problem. Finally, we apply AutoTen on a variety of real datasets, providing insights and discoveries. We view this work as a step towards a fully automated, unsupervised tensor mining tool that can be easily adopted by practitioners in academia and industry.

We present a novel algorithm (Principal Sensitivity Analysis; PSA) to analyze the knowledge of the classifier obtained from supervised machine learning techniques. In particular, we define principal sensitivity map (PSM) as the direction on the input space to which the trained classifier is most sensitive, and use analogously defined k-th PSM to define a basis for the input space. We train neural networks with artificial data and real data, and apply the algorithm to the obtained supervised classifiers. We then visualize the PSMs to demonstrate the PSA's ability to decompose the knowledge acquired by the trained classifiers.

Several efforts to predict student failure rate (SFR) at school accurately still remains a core problem area faced by many in the educational sector. The procedure for forecasting SFR are rigid and most often times require data scaling or conversion into binary form such as is the case of the logistic model which may lead to lose of information and effect size attenuation. Also, the high number of factors, incomplete and unbalanced dataset, and black boxing issues as in Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy logic systems exposes the need for more efficient tools. Currently the application of Genetic Programming (GP) holds great promises and has produced tremendous positive results in different sectors. In this regard, this study developed GPSFARPS, a software application to provide a robust solution to the prediction of SFR using an evolutionary algorithm known as multi-gene genetic programming. The approach is validated by feeding a testing data set to the evolved GP models. Result obtained from GPSFARPS simulations show its unique ability to evolve a suitable failure rate expression with a fast convergence at 30 generations from a maximum specified generation of 500. The multi-gene system was also able to minimize the evolved model expression and accurately predict student failure rate using a subset of the original expression