Statistical Learning
Generalized Low Rank Models
Udell, Madeleine, Horn, Corinne, Zadeh, Reza, Boyd, Stephen
Principal components analysis (PCA) is a well-known technique for approximating a tabular data set by a low rank matrix. Here, we extend the idea of PCA to handle arbitrary data sets consisting of numerical, Boolean, categorical, ordinal, and other data types. This framework encompasses many well known techniques in data analysis, such as nonnegative matrix factorization, matrix completion, sparse and robust PCA, $k$-means, $k$-SVD, and maximum margin matrix factorization. The method handles heterogeneous data sets, and leads to coherent schemes for compressing, denoising, and imputing missing entries across all data types simultaneously. It also admits a number of interesting interpretations of the low rank factors, which allow clustering of examples or of features. We propose several parallel algorithms for fitting generalized low rank models, and describe implementations and numerical results.
Achieving a Hyperlocal Housing Price Index: Overcoming Data Sparsity by Bayesian Dynamical Modeling of Multiple Data Streams
Ren, You, Fox, Emily B., Bruce, Andrew
Understanding how housing values evolve over time is important to policy makers, consumers and real estate professionals. Existing methods for constructing housing indices are computed at a coarse spatial granularity, such as metropolitan regions, which can mask or distort price dynamics apparent in local markets, such as neighborhoods and census tracts. A challenge in moving to estimates at, for example, the census tract level is the sparsity of spatiotemporally localized house sales observations. Our work aims at addressing this challenge by leveraging observations from multiple census tracts discovered to have correlated valuation dynamics. Our proposed Bayesian nonparametric approach builds on the framework of latent factor models to enable a flexible, data-driven method for inferring the clustering of correlated census tracts. We explore methods for scalability and parallelizability of computations, yielding a housing valuation index at the level of census tract rather than zip code, and on a monthly basis rather than quarterly. Our analysis is provided on a large Seattle metropolitan housing dataset.
Support Vector Machines for Current Status Data
Travis-Lumer, Yael, Goldberg, Yair
Current status data is a data format where the time to event is restricted to knowledge of whether or not the failure time exceeds a random monitoring time. We develop a support vector machine learning method for current status data that estimates the failure time expectation as a function of the covariates. In order to obtain the support vector machine decision function, we minimize a regularized version of the empirical risk with respect to a data-dependent loss. We show that the decision function has a closed form. Using finite sample bounds and novel oracle inequalities, we prove that the obtained decision function converges to the true conditional expectation for a large family of probability measures and study the associated learning rates. Finally we present a simulation study that compares the performance of the proposed approach to current state of the art.
Trees Assembling Mann Whitney Approach for Detecting Genome-wide Joint Association among Low Marginal Effect loci
Wei, Changshuai, Schaid, Daniel J., Lu, Qing
Common complex diseases are likely influenced by the interplay of hundreds, or even thousands, of genetic variants. Converging evidence shows that genetic variants with low marginal effects (LME) play an important role in disease development. Despite their potential significance, discovering LME genetic variants and assessing their joint association on high dimensional data (e.g., genome wide association studies) remain a great challenge. To facilitate joint association analysis among a large ensemble of LME genetic variants, we proposed a computationally efficient and powerful approach, which we call Trees Assembling Mann whitney (TAMW). Through simulation studies and an empirical data application, we found that TAMW outperformed multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) and the likelihood ratio based Mann whitney approach (LRMW) when the underlying complex disease involves multiple LME loci and their interactions. For instance, in a simulation with 20 interacting LME loci, TAMW attained a higher power (power=0.931) than both MDR (power=0.599) and LRMW (power=0.704). In an empirical study of 29 known Crohn's disease (CD) loci, TAMW also identified a stronger joint association with CD than those detected by MDR and LRMW. Finally, we applied TAMW to Wellcome Trust CD GWAS to conduct a genome wide analysis. The analysis of 459K single nucleotide polymorphisms was completed in 40 hours using parallel computing, and revealed a joint association predisposing to CD (p-value=2.763e-19). Further analysis of the newly discovered association suggested that 13 genes, such as ATG16L1 and LACC1, may play an important role in CD pathophysiological and etiological processes.
Output-Sensitive Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings for Probabilistic Programs
Tolpin, David, van de Meent, Jan Willem, Paige, Brooks, Wood, Frank
We introduce an adaptive output-sensitive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for probabilistic models expressed as programs, Adaptive Lightweight Metropolis-Hastings (AdLMH). The algorithm extends Lightweight Metropolis-Hastings (LMH) by adjusting the probabilities of proposing random variables for modification to improve convergence of the program output. We show that AdLMH converges to the correct equilibrium distribution and compare convergence of AdLMH to that of LMH on several test problems to highlight different aspects of the adaptation scheme. We observe consistent improvement in convergence on the test problems.
Penalized versus constrained generalized eigenvalue problems
Gaynanova, Irina, Booth, James, Wells, Martin T.
We investigate the difference between using an $\ell_1$ penalty versus an $\ell_1$ constraint in generalized eigenvalue problems, such as principal component analysis and discriminant analysis. Our main finding is that an $\ell_1$ penalty may fail to provide very sparse solutions; a severe disadvantage for variable selection that can be remedied by using an $\ell_1$ constraint. Our claims are supported both by empirical evidence and theoretical analysis. Finally, we illustrate the advantages of an $\ell_1$ constraint in the context of discriminant analysis and principal component analysis.
Self-Expressive Decompositions for Matrix Approximation and Clustering
Dyer, Eva L., Goldstein, Tom A., Patel, Raajen, Kording, Konrad P., Baraniuk, Richard G.
Data-aware methods for dimensionality reduction and matrix decomposition aim to find low-dimensional structure in a collection of data. Classical approaches discover such structure by learning a basis that can efficiently express the collection. Recently, "self expression", the idea of using a small subset of data vectors to represent the full collection, has been developed as an alternative to learning. Here, we introduce a scalable method for computing sparse SElf-Expressive Decompositions (SEED). SEED is a greedy method that constructs a basis by sequentially selecting incoherent vectors from the dataset. After forming a basis from a subset of vectors in the dataset, SEED then computes a sparse representation of the dataset with respect to this basis. We develop sufficient conditions under which SEED exactly represents low rank matrices and vectors sampled from a unions of independent subspaces. We show how SEED can be used in applications ranging from matrix approximation and denoising to clustering, and apply it to numerous real-world datasets. Our results demonstrate that SEED is an attractive low-complexity alternative to other sparse matrix factorization approaches such as sparse PCA and self-expressive methods for clustering.
On the Feasibility of Distributed Kernel Regression for Big Data
Xu, Chen, Zhang, Yongquan, Li, Runze
In modern scientific research, massive datasets with huge numbers of observations are frequently encountered. To facilitate the computational process, a divide-and-conquer scheme is often used for the analysis of big data. In such a strategy, a full dataset is first split into several manageable segments; the final output is then averaged from the individual outputs of the segments. Despite its popularity in practice, it remains largely unknown that whether such a distributive strategy provides valid theoretical inferences to the original data. In this paper, we address this fundamental issue for the distributed kernel regression (DKR), where the algorithmic feasibility is measured by the generalization performance of the resulting estimator. To justify DKR, a uniform convergence rate is needed for bounding the generalization error over the individual outputs, which brings new and challenging issues in the big data setup. Under mild conditions, we show that, with a proper number of segments, DKR leads to an estimator that is generalization consistent to the unknown regression function. The obtained results justify the method of DKR and shed light on the feasibility of using other distributed algorithms for processing big data. The promising preference of the method is supported by both simulation and real data examples.
Risk Bounds For Mode Clustering
Azizyan, Martin, Chen, Yen-Chi, Singh, Aarti, Wasserman, Larry
Density mode clustering is a nonparametric clustering method. The clusters are the basins of attraction of the modes of a density estimator. We study the risk of mode-based clustering. We show that the clustering risk over the cluster cores --- the regions where the density is high --- is very small even in high dimensions. And under a low noise condition, the overall cluster risk is small even beyond the cores, in high dimensions.
Sample Size Planning for Classification Models
Beleites, Claudia, Neugebauer, Ute, Bocklitz, Thomas, Krafft, Christoph, Popp, Jürgen
In biospectroscopy, suitably annotated and statistically independent samples (e. g. patients, batches, etc.) for classifier training and testing are scarce and costly. Learning curves show the model performance as function of the training sample size and can help to determine the sample size needed to train good classifiers. However, building a good model is actually not enough: the performance must also be proven. We discuss learning curves for typical small sample size situations with 5 - 25 independent samples per class. Although the classification models achieve acceptable performance, the learning curve can be completely masked by the random testing uncertainty due to the equally limited test sample size. In consequence, we determine test sample sizes necessary to achieve reasonable precision in the validation and find that 75 - 100 samples will usually be needed to test a good but not perfect classifier. Such a data set will then allow refined sample size planning on the basis of the achieved performance. We also demonstrate how to calculate necessary sample sizes in order to show the superiority of one classifier over another: this often requires hundreds of statistically independent test samples or is even theoretically impossible. We demonstrate our findings with a data set of ca. 2550 Raman spectra of single cells (five classes: erythrocytes, leukocytes and three tumour cell lines BT-20, MCF-7 and OCI-AML3) as well as by an extensive simulation that allows precise determination of the actual performance of the models in question.