Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that explicitly models the empirical population distribution as part of Bayesian analysis. We introduce a new concept, the latent dataset, as a hierarchical variable and set the empirical population as its prior. This leads to a new predictive density that mitigates model mismatch. We efficiently apply this method to complex models by proposing a stochastic variational inference algorithm, called bumping variational inference (BUMP-VI). We demonstrate improved predictive accuracy over classical Bayesian inference in three models: a linear regression model of health data, a Bayesian mixture model of natural images, and a latent Dirichlet allocation topic model of scientific documents.

We study the problem of Robust Least Squares Regression (RLSR) where several response variables can be adversarially corrupted. More specifically, for a data matrix X \in R^{p x n} and an underlying model w*, the response vector is generated as y = X'w* + b where b \in R^n is the corruption vector supported over at most C.n coordinates. Existing exact recovery results for RLSR focus solely on L1-penalty based convex formulations and impose relatively strict model assumptions such as requiring the corruptions b to be selected independently of X. In this work, we study a simple hard-thresholding algorithm called TORRENT which, under mild conditions on X, can recover w* exactly even if b corrupts the response variables in an adversarial manner, i.e. both the support and entries of b are selected adversarially after observing X and w*. Our results hold under deterministic assumptions which are satisfied if X is sampled from any sub-Gaussian distribution. Finally unlike existing results that apply only to a fixed w*, generated independently of X, our results are universal and hold for any w* \in R^p. Next, we propose gradient descent-based extensions of TORRENT that can scale efficiently to large scale problems, such as high dimensional sparse recovery and prove similar recovery guarantees for these extensions. Empirically we find TORRENT, and more so its extensions, offering significantly faster recovery than the state-of-the-art L1 solvers. For instance, even on moderate-sized datasets (with p = 50K) with around 40% corrupted responses, a variant of our proposed method called TORRENT-HYB is more than 20x faster than the best L1 solver.

We introduce a new class of nonstationary kernels, which we derive as covariance functions of a novel family of stochastic processes we refer to as string Gaussian processes (string GPs). We construct string GPs to allow for multiple types of local patterns in the data, while ensuring a mild global regularity condition. In this paper, we illustrate the efficacy of the approach using synthetic data and demonstrate that the model outperforms competing approaches on well studied, real-life datasets that exhibit nonstationary features.

In this work we develop a new algorithm for regularized empirical risk minimization. Our method extends recent techniques of Shalev-Shwartz [02/2015], which enable a dual-free analysis of SDCA, to arbitrary mini-batching schemes. Moreover, our method is able to better utilize the information in the data defining the ERM problem. For convex loss functions, our complexity results match those of QUARTZ, which is a primal-dual method also allowing for arbitrary mini-batching schemes. The advantage of a dual-free analysis comes from the fact that it guarantees convergence even for non-convex loss functions, as long as the average loss is convex. We illustrate through experiments the utility of being able to design arbitrary mini-batching schemes.

Variable selection is a challenging issue in statistical applications when the number of predictors $p$ far exceeds the number of observations $n$. In this ultra-high dimensional setting, the sure independence screening (SIS) procedure was introduced to significantly reduce the dimensionality by preserving the true model with overwhelming probability, before a refined second stage analysis. However, the aforementioned sure screening property strongly relies on the assumption that the important variables in the model have large marginal correlations with the response, which rarely holds in reality. To overcome this, we propose a novel and simple screening technique called the high-dimensional ordinary least-squares projection (HOLP). We show that HOLP possesses the sure screening property and gives consistent variable selection without the strong correlation assumption, and has a low computational complexity. A ridge type HOLP procedure is also discussed. Simulation study shows that HOLP performs competitively compared to many other marginal correlation based methods. An application to a mammalian eye disease data illustrates the attractiveness of HOLP.

We design mechanisms for online procurement of data held by strategic agents for machine learning tasks. The challenge is to use past data to actively price future data and give learning guarantees even when an agent's cost for revealing her data may depend arbitrarily on the data itself. We achieve this goal by showing how to convert a large class of no-regret algorithms into online posted-price and learning mechanisms. Our results in a sense parallel classic sample complexity guarantees, but with the key resource being money rather than quantity of data: With a budget constraint $B$, we give robust risk (predictive error) bounds on the order of $1/\sqrt{B}$. Because we use an active approach, we can often guarantee to do significantly better by leveraging correlations between costs and data. Our algorithms and analysis go through a model of no-regret learning with $T$ arriving pairs (cost, data) and a budget constraint of $B$. Our regret bounds for this model are on the order of $T/\sqrt{B}$ and we give lower bounds on the same order.

Markov jump processes (MJPs) are used to model a wide range of phenomena from disease progression to RNA path folding. However, maximum likelihood estimation of parametric models leads to degenerate trajectories and inferential performance is poor in nonparametric models. We take a small-variance asymptotics (SVA) approach to overcome these limitations. We derive the small-variance asymptotics for parametric and nonparametric MJPs for both directly observed and hidden state models. In the parametric case we obtain a novel objective function which leads to non-degenerate trajectories. To derive the nonparametric version we introduce the gamma-gamma process, a novel extension to the gamma-exponential process. We propose algorithms for each of these formulations, which we call \emph{JUMP-means}. Our experiments demonstrate that JUMP-means is competitive with or outperforms widely used MJP inference approaches in terms of both speed and reconstruction accuracy.

We introduce a kernel method for manifold alignment (KEMA) and domain adaptation that can match an arbitrary number of data sources without needing corresponding pairs, just few labeled examples in all domains. KEMA has interesting properties: 1) it generalizes other manifold alignment methods, 2) it can align manifolds of very different complexities, performing a sort of manifold unfolding plus alignment, 3) it can define a domain-specific metric to cope with multimodal specificities, 4) it can align data spaces of different dimensionality, 5) it is robust to strong nonlinear feature deformations, and 6) it is closed-form invertible which allows transfer across-domains and data synthesis. We also present a reduced-rank version for computational efficiency and discuss the generalization performance of KEMA under Rademacher principles of stability. KEMA exhibits very good performance over competing methods in synthetic examples, visual object recognition and recognition of facial expressions tasks.

Preference learning (PL) is a core area of machine learning that handles datasets with ordinal relations. As the number of generated data of ordinal nature is increasing, the importance and role of the PL field becomes central within machine learning research and practice. This paper introduces an open source, scalable, efficient and accessible preference learning toolbox that supports the key phases of the data training process incorporating various popular data preprocessing, feature selection and preference learning methods.

Fine-grained visual categorization (FGVC) is to categorize objects into subordinate classes instead of basic classes. One major challenge in FGVC is the co-occurrence of two issues: 1) many subordinate classes are highly correlated and are difficult to distinguish, and 2) there exists the large intra-class variation (e.g., due to object pose). This paper proposes to explicitly address the above two issues via distance metric learning (DML). DML addresses the first issue by learning an embedding so that data points from the same class will be pulled together while those from different classes should be pushed apart from each other; and it addresses the second issue by allowing the flexibility that only a portion of the neighbors (not all data points) from the same class need to be pulled together. However, feature representation of an image is often high dimensional, and DML is known to have difficulty in dealing with high dimensional feature vectors since it would require $\mathcal{O}(d^2)$ for storage and $\mathcal{O}(d^3)$ for optimization. To this end, we proposed a multi-stage metric learning framework that divides the large-scale high dimensional learning problem to a series of simple subproblems, achieving $\mathcal{O}(d)$ computational complexity. The empirical study with FVGC benchmark datasets verifies that our method is both effective and efficient compared to the state-of-the-art FGVC approaches.