Dropout has recently emerged as a powerful and simple method for training neural networks preventing co-adaptation by stochastically omitting neurons. Dropout is currently not grounded in explicit modelling assumptions which so far has precluded its adoption in Bayesian modelling. Using Bayesian entropic reasoning we show that dropout can be interpreted as optimal inference under constraints. We demonstrate this on an analytically tractable regression model providing a Bayesian interpretation of its mechanism for regularizing and preventing co-adaptation as well as its connection to other Bayesian techniques. We also discuss two general approximate techniques for applying Bayesian dropout for general models, one based on an analytical approximation and the other on stochastic variational techniques. These techniques are then applied to a Baysian logistic regression problem and are shown to improve performance as the model become more misspecified. Our framework roots dropout as a theoretically justified and practical tool for statistical modelling allowing Bayesians to tap into the benefits of dropout training.

The errors-in-variables (EIV) regression model, being more realistic by accounting for measurement errors in both the dependent and the independent variables, is widely adopted in applied sciences. The traditional EIV model estimators, however, can be highly biased by outliers and other departures from the underlying assumptions. In this paper, we develop a novel nonparametric regression approach - the robust compound regression (RCR) analysis method for the robust estimation of EIV models. We first introduce a robust and efficient estimator called least sine squares (LSS). Taking full advantage of both the new LSS method and the compound regression analysis method developed in our own group, we subsequently propose the RCR approach as a generalization of those two, which provides a robust counterpart of the entire class of the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) solutions of the EIV model, in a 1-1 mapping. Technically, our approach gives users the flexibility to select from a class of RCR estimates the optimal one with a predefined regression efficiency criterion satisfied. Simulation studies and real-life examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the RCR approach.

We devise a one-shot approach to distributed sparse regression in the high-dimensional setting. The key idea is to average "debiased" or "desparsified" lasso estimators. We show the approach converges at the same rate as the lasso as long as the dataset is not split across too many machines. We also extend the approach to generalized linear models.

Methods from learning theory are used in the state space of linear dynamical and control systems in order to estimate the system matrices. An application to stabilization via algebraic Riccati equations is included. The approach is illustrated via a series of numerical examples.

A new dimension reduction method based on Gaussian finite mixtures is proposed as an extension to sliced inverse regression (SIR). The model-based SIR (MSIR) approach allows the main limitation of SIR to be overcome, i.e., failure in the presence of regression symmetric relationships, without the need to impose further assumptions. Extensive numerical studies are presented to compare the new method with some of most popular dimension reduction methods, such as SIR, sliced average variance estimation, principal Hessian direction, and directional regression. MSIR appears sufficiently flexible to accommodate various regression functions, and its performance is comparable with or better, particularly as sample size grows, than other available methods. Lastly, MSIR is illustrated with two real data examples about ozone concentration regression, and hand-written digit classification.

Increasing popularity of mobile route planning applications based on GPS technology provides opportunities for collecting traffic data in urban environments. One of the main challenges for travel time estimation and prediction in such a setting is how to aggregate data from vehicles that have followed different routes, and predict travel time for other routes of interest. One approach is to predict travel times for route segments, and sum those estimates to obtain a prediction for the whole route. We study how to obtain optimal predictions in this scenario. It appears that the optimal estimate, minimizing the expected mean absolute error, is a combination of the mean and the median travel times on each segment, where the combination function depends on the number of segments in the route of interest. We present a methodology for obtaining such predictions, and demonstrate its effectiveness with a case study using travel time data from a district of St. Petersburg collected over one year. The proposed methodology can be applied for real-time prediction of expected travel times in an urban road network.

We consider the problem of improving the efficiency of randomized Fourier feature maps to accelerate training and testing speed of kernel methods on large datasets. These approximate feature maps arise as Monte Carlo approximations to integral representations of shift-invariant kernel functions (e.g., Gaussian kernel). In this paper, we propose to use Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) approximations instead, where the relevant integrands are evaluated on a low-discrepancy sequence of points as opposed to random point sets as in the Monte Carlo approach. We derive a new discrepancy measure called box discrepancy based on theoretical characterizations of the integration error with respect to a given sequence. We then propose to learn QMC sequences adapted to our setting based on explicit box discrepancy minimization. Our theoretical analyses are complemented with empirical results that demonstrate the effectiveness of classical and adaptive QMC techniques for this problem.

We introduce extensions of stability selection, a method to stabilise variable selection methods introduced by Meinshausen and B\"uhlmann (J R Stat Soc 72:417-473, 2010). We propose to apply a base selection method repeatedly to random observation subsamples and covariate subsets under scrutiny, and to select covariates based on their selection frequency. We analyse the effects and benefits of these extensions. Our analysis generalizes the theoretical results of Meinshausen and B\"uhlmann (J R Stat Soc 72:417-473, 2010) from the case of half-samples to subsamples of arbitrary size. We study, in a theoretical manner, the effect of taking random covariate subsets using a simplified score model. Finally we validate these extensions on numerical experiments on both synthetic and real datasets, and compare the obtained results in detail to the original stability selection method.

Random forests are a learning algorithm proposed by Breiman [Mach. Learn. 45 (2001) 5--32] that combines several randomized decision trees and aggregates their predictions by averaging. Despite its wide usage and outstanding practical performance, little is known about the mathematical properties of the procedure. This disparity between theory and practice originates in the difficulty to simultaneously analyze both the randomization process and the highly data-dependent tree structure. In the present paper, we take a step forward in forest exploration by proving a consistency result for Breiman's [Mach. Learn. 45 (2001) 5--32] original algorithm in the context of additive regression models. Our analysis also sheds an interesting light on how random forests can nicely adapt to sparsity. 1. Introduction. Random forests are an ensemble learning method for classification and regression that constructs a number of randomized decision trees during the training phase and predicts by averaging the results. Since its publication in the seminal paper of Breiman (2001), the procedure has become a major data analysis tool, that performs well in practice in comparison with many standard methods. What has greatly contributed to the popularity of forests is the fact that they can be applied to a wide range of prediction problems and have few parameters to tune. Aside from being simple to use, the method is generally recognized for its accuracy and its ability to deal with small sample sizes, high-dimensional feature spaces and complex data structures. The random forest methodology has been successfully involved in many practical problems, including air quality prediction (winning code of the EMC data science global hackathon in 2012, see http://www.kaggle.com/c/dsg-hackathon), chemoinformatics [Svetnik et al. (2003)], ecology [Prasad, Iverson and Liaw (2006), Cutler et al. (2007)], 3D

This paper establishes the consistency of spectral approaches to data clustering. We consider clustering of point clouds obtained as samples of a ground-truth measure. A graph representing the point cloud is obtained by assigning weights to edges based on the distance between the points they connect. We investigate the spectral convergence of both unnormalized and normalized graph Laplacians towards the appropriate operators in the continuum domain. We obtain sharp conditions on how the connectivity radius can be scaled with respect to the number of sample points for the spectral convergence to hold. We also show that the discrete clusters obtained via spectral clustering converge towards a continuum partition of the ground truth measure. Such continuum partition minimizes a functional describing the continuum analogue of the graph-based spectral partitioning. Our approach, based on variational convergence, is general and flexible.