A l1-norm penalized orthogonal forward regression (l1-POFR) algorithm is proposed based on the concept of leaveone- out mean square error (LOOMSE). Firstly, a new l1-norm penalized cost function is defined in the constructed orthogonal space, and each orthogonal basis is associated with an individually tunable regularization parameter. Secondly, due to orthogonal computation, the LOOMSE can be analytically computed without actually splitting the data set, and moreover a closed form of the optimal regularization parameter in terms of minimal LOOMSE is derived. Thirdly, a lower bound for regularization parameters is proposed, which can be used for robust LOOMSE estimation by adaptively detecting and removing regressors to an inactive set so that the computational cost of the algorithm is significantly reduced. Illustrative examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new l1-POFR approach.

Propagating input uncertainty through non-linear Gaussian process (GP) mappings is intractable. This hinders the task of training GPs using uncertain and partially observed inputs. In this paper we refer to this task as "semi-described learning". We then introduce a GP framework that solves both, the semi-described and the semi-supervised learning problems (where missing values occur in the outputs). Auto-regressive state space simulation is also recognised as a special case of semi-described learning. To achieve our goal we develop variational methods for handling semi-described inputs in GPs, and couple them with algorithms that allow for imputing the missing values while treating the uncertainty in a principled, Bayesian manner. Extensive experiments on simulated and real-world data study the problems of iterative forecasting and regression/classification with missing values. The results suggest that the principled propagation of uncertainty stemming from our framework can significantly improve performance in these tasks.

This paper presents a pre-processing and a distance which improve the performance of machine learning algorithms working on independent and identically distributed stochastic processes. We introduce a novel non-parametric approach to represent random variables which splits apart dependency and distribution without losing any information. We also propound an associated metric leveraging this representation and its statistical estimate. Besides experiments on synthetic datasets, the benefits of our contribution is illustrated through the example of clustering financial time series, for instance prices from the credit default swaps market. Results are available on the website www.datagrapple.com and an IPython Notebook tutorial is available at www.datagrapple.com/Tech for reproducible research.

In applications of Gaussian processes where quantification of uncertainty is of primary interest, it is necessary to accurately characterize the posterior distribution over covariance parameters. This paper proposes an adaptation of the Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics algorithm to draw samples from the posterior distribution over covariance parameters with negligible bias and without the need to compute the marginal likelihood. In Gaussian process regression, this has the enormous advantage that stochastic gradients can be computed by solving linear systems only. A novel unbiased linear systems solver based on parallelizable covariance matrix-vector products is developed to accelerate the unbiased estimation of gradients. The results demonstrate the possibility to enable scalable and exact (in a Monte Carlo sense) quantification of uncertainty in Gaussian processes without imposing any special structure on the covariance or reducing the number of input vectors.

Many methods have been proposed for community detection in networks, but most of them do not take into account additional information on the nodes that is often available in practice. In this paper, we propose a new joint community detection criterion that uses both the network edge information and the node features to detect community structures. One advantage our method has over existing joint detection approaches is the flexibility of learning the impact of different features which may differ across communities. Another advantage is the flexibility of choosing the amount of influence the feature information has on communities. The method is asymptotically consistent under the block model with additional assumptions on the feature distributions, and performs well on simulated and real networks. Community detection is a fundamental problem in network analysis, extensively studied in a number of domains - see (1) and (2) for some examples of applications. A number of approaches to community detection are based on probabilistic models for networks with communities, such as the stochastic block model (3), the degree-corrected stochastic block model (4), and the latent factor model (5). Other approaches work by optimizing a criterion measuring the strength of community structure in some sense, often through spectral approximations. Examples include normalized cuts (6), modularity (7; 8), and many variants of spectral clustering, e.g., (9).

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior probabilities may be poorly evaluated by standard ABC techniques. We propose a novel approach based on a machine learning tool named random forests to conduct selection among the highly complex models covered by ABC algorithms. We thus modify the way Bayesian model selection is both understood and operated, in that we rephrase the inferential goal as a classification problem, first predicting the model that best fits the data with random forests and postponing the approximation of the posterior probability of the predicted MAP for a second stage also relying on random forests. Compared with earlier implementations of ABC model choice, the ABC random forest approach offers several potential improvements: (i) it often has a larger discriminative power among the competing models, (ii) it is more robust against the number and choice of statistics summarizing the data, (iii) the computing effort is drastically reduced (with a gain in computation efficiency of at least fifty), and (iv) it includes an approximation of the posterior probability of the selected model. The call to random forests will undoubtedly extend the range of size of datasets and complexity of models that ABC can handle. We illustrate the power of this novel methodology by analyzing controlled experiments as well as genuine population genetics datasets. The proposed methodologies are implemented in the R package abcrf available on the CRAN.

The speed with which a learning algorithm converges as it is presented with more data is a central problem in machine learning --- a fast rate of convergence means less data is needed for the same level of performance. The pursuit of fast rates in online and statistical learning has led to the discovery of many conditions in learning theory under which fast learning is possible. We show that most of these conditions are special cases of a single, unifying condition, that comes in two forms: the central condition for 'proper' learning algorithms that always output a hypothesis in the given model, and stochastic mixability for online algorithms that may make predictions outside of the model. We show that under surprisingly weak assumptions both conditions are, in a certain sense, equivalent. The central condition has a re-interpretation in terms of convexity of a set of pseudoprobabilities, linking it to density estimation under misspecification. For bounded losses, we show how the central condition enables a direct proof of fast rates and we prove its equivalence to the Bernstein condition, itself a generalization of the Tsybakov margin condition, both of which have played a central role in obtaining fast rates in statistical learning. Yet, while the Bernstein condition is two-sided, the central condition is one-sided, making it more suitable to deal with unbounded losses. In its stochastic mixability form, our condition generalizes both a stochastic exp-concavity condition identified by Juditsky, Rigollet and Tsybakov and Vovk's notion of mixability. Our unifying conditions thus provide a substantial step towards a characterization of fast rates in statistical learning, similar to how classical mixability characterizes constant regret in the sequential prediction with expert advice setting.

We present a framework for supervised subspace tracking, when there are two time series $x_t$ and $y_t$, one being the high-dimensional predictors and the other being the response variables and the subspace tracking needs to take into consideration of both sequences. It extends the classic online subspace tracking work which can be viewed as tracking of $x_t$ only. Our online sufficient dimensionality reduction (OSDR) is a meta-algorithm that can be applied to various cases including linear regression, logistic regression, multiple linear regression, multinomial logistic regression, support vector machine, the random dot product model and the multi-scale union-of-subspace model. OSDR reduces data-dimensionality on-the-fly with low-computational complexity and it can also handle missing data and dynamic data. OSDR uses an alternating minimization scheme and updates the subspace via gradient descent on the Grassmannian manifold. The subspace update can be performed efficiently utilizing the fact that the Grassmannian gradient with respect to the subspace in many settings is rank-one (or low-rank in certain cases). The optimization problem for OSDR is non-convex and hard to analyze in general; we provide convergence analysis of OSDR in a simple linear regression setting. The good performance of OSDR compared with the conventional unsupervised subspace tracking are demonstrated via numerical examples on simulated and real data.

Algorithm selection (AS) techniques -- which involve choosing from a set of algorithms the one expected to solve a given problem instance most efficiently -- have substantially improved the state of the art in solving many prominent AI problems, such as SAT, CSP, ASP, MAXSAT and QBF. Although several AS procedures have been introduced, not too surprisingly, none of them dominates all others across all AS scenarios. Furthermore, these procedures have parameters whose optimal values vary across AS scenarios. This holds specifically for the machine learning techniques that form the core of current AS procedures, and for their hyperparameters. Therefore, to successfully apply AS to new problems, algorithms and benchmark sets, two questions need to be answered: (i) how to select an AS approach and (ii) how to set its parameters effectively. We address both of these problems simultaneously by using automated algorithm configuration. Specifically, we demonstrate that we can automatically configure claspfolio 2, which implements a large variety of different AS approaches and their respective parameters in a single, highly-parameterized algorithm framework. Our approach, dubbed AutoFolio, allows researchers and practitioners across a broad range of applications to exploit the combined power of many different AS methods. We demonstrate AutoFolio can significantly improve the performance of claspfolio 2 on 8 out of the 13 scenarios from the Algorithm Selection Library, leads to new state-of-the-art algorithm selectors for 7 of these scenarios, and matches state-of-the-art performance (statistically) on all other scenarios. Compared to the best single algorithm for each AS scenario, AutoFolio achieves average speedup factors between 1.3 and 15.4.

The stability of statistical analysis is an important indicator for reproducibility, which is one main principle of scientific method. It entails that similar statistical conclusions can be reached based on independent samples from the same underlying population. In this paper, we introduce a general measure of classification instability (CIS) to quantify the sampling variability of the prediction made by a classification method. Interestingly, the asymptotic CIS of any weighted nearest neighbor classifier turns out to be proportional to the Euclidean norm of its weight vector. Based on this concise form, we propose a stabilized nearest neighbor (SNN) classifier, which distinguishes itself from other nearest neighbor classifiers, by taking the stability into consideration. In theory, we prove that SNN attains the minimax optimal convergence rate in risk, and a sharp convergence rate in CIS. The latter rate result is established for general plug-in classifiers under a low-noise condition. Extensive simulated and real examples demonstrate that SNN achieves a considerable improvement in CIS over existing nearest neighbor classifiers, with comparable classification accuracy. We implement the algorithm in a publicly available R package snn.