We consider the scenario where the parameters of a probabilistic model are expected to vary over time. We construct a novel prior distribution that promotes sparsity and adapts the strength of correlation between parameters at successive timesteps, based on the data. We derive approximate variational inference procedures for learning and prediction with this prior. We test the approach on two tasks: forecasting financial quantities from relevant text, and modeling language contingent on time-varying financial measurements.

In the wake of recent advances in experimental methods in neuroscience, the ability to record in-vivo neuronal activity from awake animals has become feasible. The availability of such rich and detailed physiological measurements calls for the development of advanced data analysis tools, as commonly used techniques do not suffice to capture the spatio-temporal network complexity. In this paper, we propose a new hierarchical coupled geometry analysis, which exploits the hidden connectivity structures between neurons and the dynamic patterns at multiple time-scales. Our approach gives rise to the joint organization of neurons and dynamic patterns in data-driven hierarchical data structures. These structures provide local to global data representations, from local partitioning of the data in flexible trees through a new multiscale metric to a global manifold embedding. The application of our techniques to in-vivo neuronal recordings demonstrate the capability of extracting neuronal activity patterns and identifying temporal trends, associated with particular behavioral events and manipulations introduced in the experiments.

We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities, e.g., for applications involving bandits or active learning. One simple approach to this is to use online Monte Carlo methods, such as SGLD (stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics). Unfortunately, such a method needs to store many copies of the parameters (which wastes memory), and needs to make predictions using many versions of the model (which wastes time). We describe a method for "distilling" a Monte Carlo approximation to the posterior predictive density into a more compact form, namely a single deep neural network. We compare to two very recent approaches to Bayesian neural networks, namely an approach based on expectation propagation [Hernandez-Lobato and Adams, 2015] and an approach based on variational Bayes [Blundell et al., 2015]. Our method performs better than both of these, is much simpler to implement, and uses less computation at test time.

Currently, machine learning plays an important role in the lives and individual activities of numerous people. Accordingly, it has become necessary to design machine learning algorithms to ensure that discrimination, biased views, or unfair treatment do not result from decision making or predictions made via machine learning. In this work, we introduce a novel empirical risk minimization (ERM) framework for supervised learning, neutralized ERM (NERM) that ensures that any classifiers obtained can be guaranteed to be neutral with respect to a viewpoint hypothesis. More specifically, given a viewpoint hypothesis, NERM works to find a target hypothesis that minimizes the empirical risk while simultaneously identifying a target hypothesis that is neutral to the viewpoint hypothesis. Within the NERM framework, we derive a theoretical bound on empirical and generalization neutrality risks. Furthermore, as a realization of NERM with linear classification, we derive a max-margin algorithm, neutral support vector machine (SVM). Experimental results show that our neutral SVM shows improved classification performance in real datasets without sacrificing the neutrality guarantee.

Learning a model of perceptual similarity from a collection of objects is a fundamental task in machine learning underlying numerous applications. A common way to learn such a model is from relative comparisons in the form of triplets: responses to queries of the form "Is object a more similar to b than it is to c?". If no consideration is made in the determination of which queries to ask, existing similarity learning methods can require a prohibitively large number of responses. In this work, we consider the problem of actively learning from triplets -finding which queries are most useful for learning. Different from previous active triplet learning approaches, we incorporate auxiliary information into our similarity model and introduce an active learning scheme to find queries that are informative for quickly learning both the relevant aspects of auxiliary data and the directly-learned similarity components. Compared to prior approaches, we show that we can learn just as effectively with much fewer queries. For evaluation, we introduce a new dataset of exhaustive triplet comparisons obtained from humans and demonstrate improved performance for different types of auxiliary information.

We introduce scalable deep kernels, which combine the structural properties of deep learning architectures with the non-parametric flexibility of kernel methods. Specifically, we transform the inputs of a spectral mixture base kernel with a deep architecture, using local kernel interpolation, inducing points, and structure exploiting (Kronecker and Toeplitz) algebra for a scalable kernel representation. These closed-form kernels can be used as drop-in replacements for standard kernels, with benefits in expressive power and scalability. We jointly learn the properties of these kernels through the marginal likelihood of a Gaussian process. Inference and learning cost $O(n)$ for $n$ training points, and predictions cost $O(1)$ per test point. On a large and diverse collection of applications, including a dataset with 2 million examples, we show improved performance over scalable Gaussian processes with flexible kernel learning models, and stand-alone deep architectures.

We aim to produce predictive models that are not only accurate, but are also interpretable to human experts. Our models are decision lists, which consist of a series of if...then... statements (e.g., if high blood pressure, then stroke) that discretize a high-dimensional, multivariate feature space into a series of simple, readily interpretable decision statements. We introduce a generative model called Bayesian Rule Lists that yields a posterior distribution over possible decision lists. It employs a novel prior structure to encourage sparsity. Our experiments show that Bayesian Rule Lists has predictive accuracy on par with the current top algorithms for prediction in machine learning. Our method is motivated by recent developments in personalized medicine, and can be used to produce highly accurate and interpretable medical scoring systems. We demonstrate this by producing an alternative to the CHADS$_2$ score, actively used in clinical practice for estimating the risk of stroke in patients that have atrial fibrillation. Our model is as interpretable as CHADS$_2$, but more accurate.

We consider the problem of embedding unweighted, directed k-nearest neighbor graphs in low-dimensional Euclidean space. The k-nearest neighbors of each vertex provides ordinal information on the distances between points, but not the distances themselves. We use this ordinal information along with the low-dimensionality to recover the coordinates of the points up to arbitrary similarity transformations (rigid transformations and scaling). Furthermore, we also illustrate the possibility of robustly recovering the underlying density via the Total Variation Maximum Penalized Likelihood Estimation (TV-MPLE) method. We make existing approaches scalable by using an instance of a local-to-global algorithm based on group synchronization, recently proposed in the literature in the context of sensor network localization and structural biology, which we augment with a scaling synchronization step. We demonstrate the scalability of our approach on large graphs, and show how it compares to the Local Ordinal Embedding (LOE) algorithm, which was recently proposed for recovering the configuration of a cloud of points from pairwise ordinal comparisons between a sparse set of distances.

We present and analyze several strategies for improving the performance of stochastic variance-reduced gradient (SVRG) methods. We first show that the convergence rate of these methods can be preserved under a decreasing sequence of errors in the control variate, and use this to derive variants of SVRG that use growing-batch strategies to reduce the number of gradient calculations required in the early iterations. We further (i) show how to exploit support vectors to reduce the number of gradient computations in the later iterations, (ii) prove that the commonly-used regularized SVRG iteration is justified and improves the convergence rate, (iii) consider alternate mini-batch selection strategies, and (iv) consider the generalization error of the method.

We consider moment matching techniques for estimation in Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). By drawing explicit links between LDA and discrete versions of independent component analysis (ICA), we first derive a new set of cumulant-based tensors, with an improved sample complexity. Moreover, we reuse standard ICA techniques such as joint diagonalization of tensors to improve over existing methods based on the tensor power method. In an extensive set of experiments on both synthetic and real datasets, we show that our new combination of tensors and orthogonal joint diagonalization techniques outperforms existing moment matching methods.