To improve the efficiency of Monte Carlo estimation, practitioners are turning to biased Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures that trade off asymptotic exactness for computational speed. The reasoning is sound: a reduction in variance due to more rapid sampling can outweigh the bias introduced. However, the inexactness creates new challenges for sampler and parameter selection, since standard measures of sample quality like effective sample size do not account for asymptotic bias. To address these challenges, we introduce a new computable quality measure based on Stein's method that bounds the discrepancy between sample and target expectations over a large class of test functions. We use our tool to compare exact, biased, and deterministic sample sequences and illustrate applications to hyperparameter selection, convergence rate assessment, and quantifying bias-variance tradeoffs in posterior inference.

In deterministic optimization, line searches are a standard tool ensuring stability and efficiency. Where only stochastic gradients are available, no direct equivalent has so far been formulated, because uncertain gradients do not allow for a strict sequence of decisions collapsing the search space. We construct a probabilistic line search by combining the structure of existing deterministic methods with notions from Bayesian optimization. Our method retains a Gaussian process surrogate of the univariate optimization objective, and uses a probabilistic belief over the Wolfe conditions to monitor the descent. The algorithm has very low computational cost, and no user-controlled parameters. Experiments show that it effectively removes the need to define a learning rate for stochastic gradient descent.

Color constancy is the recovery of true surface color from observed color, and requires estimating the chromaticity of scene illumination to correct for the bias it induces. In this paper, we show that the per-pixel color statistics of natural scenes---without any spatial or semantic context---can by themselves be a powerful cue for color constancy. Specifically, we describe an illuminant estimation method that is built around a classifier for identifying the true chromaticity of a pixel given its luminance (absolute brightness across color channels). During inference, each pixel's observed color restricts its true chromaticity to those values that can be explained by one of a candidate set of illuminants, and applying the classifier over these values yields a distribution over the corresponding illuminants. A global estimate for the scene illuminant is computed through a simple aggregation of these distributions across all pixels. We begin by simply defining the luminance-to-chromaticity classifier by computing empirical histograms over discretized chromaticity and luminance values from a training set of natural images. These histograms reflect a preference for hues corresponding to smooth reflectance functions, and for achromatic colors in brighter pixels. Despite its simplicity, the resulting estimation algorithm outperforms current state-of-the-art color constancy methods. Next, we propose a method to learn the luminance-to-chromaticity classifier end-to-end. Using stochastic gradient descent, we set chromaticity-luminance likelihoods to minimize errors in the final scene illuminant estimates on a training set. This leads to further improvements in accuracy, most significantly in the tail of the error distribution.

We introduce the Locally Linear Latent Variable Model (LL-LVM), a probabilistic model for non-linear manifold discovery that describes a joint distribution over observations, their manifold coordinates and locally linear maps conditioned on a set of neighbourhood relationships. The model allows straightforward variational optimisation of the posterior distribution on coordinates and locally linear maps from the latent space to the observation space given the data. Thus, the LL-LVM encapsulates the local-geometry preserving intuitions that underlie non-probabilistic methods such as locally linear embedding (LLE). Its probabilistic semantics make it easy to evaluate the quality of hypothesised neighbourhood relationships, select the intrinsic dimensionality of the manifold, construct out-of-sample extensions and to combine the manifold model with additional probabilistic models that capture the structure of coordinates within the manifold.

We propose a simple, scalable, and fast gradient descent algorithm to optimize a nonconvex objective for the rank minimization problem and a closely related family of semidefinite programs. With $O(r^3 \kappa^2 n \log n)$ random measurements of a positive semidefinite $n\times n$ matrix of rank $r$ and condition number $\kappa$, our method is guaranteed to converge linearly to the global optimum.

Space-time is a profound concept in physics. This concept was shown to be useful for dimensionality reduction. We present basic definitions with interesting counter-intuitions.We give theoretical propositions to show that space-time is a more powerful representation than Euclidean space. We apply this concept to manifold learning for preserving local information. Empirical results on nonmetric datasetsshow that more information can be preserved in space-time.

We study the problem of hierarchical clustering on planar graphs. We formulate this in terms of finding the closest ultrametric to a specified set of distances and solve it using an LP relaxation that leverages minimum cost perfect matching as a subroutine to efficiently explore the space of planar partitions. We apply our algorithm to the problem of hierarchical image segmentation.

We study the problem of multiclass classification with an extremely large number of classes (k), with the goal of obtaining train and test time complexity logarithmic in the number of classes. We develop top-down tree construction approaches for constructing logarithmic depth trees. On the theoretical front, we formulate a new objective function, which is optimized at each node of the tree and creates dynamic partitions of the data which are both pure (in terms of class labels) and balanced. We demonstrate that under favorable conditions, we can construct logarithmic depth trees that have leaves with low label entropy. However, the objective function at the nodes is challenging to optimize computationally. We address the empirical problem with a new online decision tree construction procedure. Experiments demonstrate that this online algorithm quickly achieves improvement in test error compared to more common logarithmic training time approaches, which makes it a plausible method in computationally constrained large-k applications.

We develop a sequential low-complexity inference procedure for Dirichlet process mixtures of Gaussians for online clustering and parameter estimation when the number of clusters are unknown a-priori. We present an easily computable, closed form parametric expression for the conditional likelihood, in which hyperparameters are recursively updated as a function of the streaming data assuming conjugate priors. Motivated by large-sample asymptotics, we propose a noveladaptive low-complexity design for the Dirichlet process concentration parameter and show that the number of classes grow at most at a logarithmic rate. We further prove that in the large-sample limit, the conditional likelihood and datapredictive distribution become asymptotically Gaussian. We demonstrate through experiments on synthetic and real data sets that our approach is superior to otheronline state-of-the-art methods.

One of the central questions in statistical learning theory is to determine the conditions under which agents can learn from experience. This includes the necessary and sufficient conditions for generalization from a given finite training set to new observations. In this paper, we prove that algorithmic stability in the inference process is equivalent to uniform generalization across all parametric loss functions. We provide various interpretations of this result. For instance, a relationship is proved between stability and data processing, which reveals that algorithmic stability can be improved by post-processing the inferred hypothesis or by augmenting training examples with artificial noise prior to learning. In addition, we establish a relationship between algorithmic stability and the size of the observation space, which provides a formal justification for dimensionality reduction methods. Finally, we connect algorithmic stability to the size of the hypothesis space, which recovers the classical PAC result that the size (complexity) of the hypothesis space should be controlled in order to improve algorithmic stability and improve generalization.