In high-dimensional data, structured noise caused by observed and unobserved factors affecting multiple target variables simultaneously, imposes a serious challenge for modeling, by masking the often weak signal. Therefore, (1) explaining away the structured noise in multiple-output regression is of paramount importance. Additionally, (2) assumptions about the correlation structure of the regression weights are needed. We note that both can be formulated in a natural way in a latent variable model, in which both the interesting signal and the noise are mediated through the same latent factors. Under this assumption, the signal model then borrows strength from the noise model by encouraging similar effects on correlated targets. We introduce a hyperparameter for the \emph{latent signal-to-noise ratio} which turns out to be important for modelling weak signals, and an ordered infinite-dimensional shrinkage prior that resolves the rotational unidentifiability in reduced-rank regression models. Simulations and prediction experiments with metabolite, gene expression, FMRI measurement, and macroeconomic time series data show that our model equals or exceeds the state-of-the-art performance and, in particular, outperforms the standard approach of assuming independent noise and signal models.

Extreme classification problems are multiclass and multilabel classification problems where the number of outputs is so large that straightforward strategies are neither statistically nor computationally viable. One strategy for dealing with the computational burden is via a tree decomposition of the output space. While this typically leads to training and inference that scales sublinearly with the number of outputs, it also results in reduced statistical performance. In this work, we identify two shortcomings of tree decomposition methods, and describe two heuristic mitigations. We compose these with an eigenvalue technique for constructing the tree. The end result is a computationally efficient algorithm that provides good statistical performance on several extreme data sets.

Cascades of information-sharing are a primary mechanism by which content reaches its audience on social media, and an active line of research has studied how such cascades, which form as content is reshared from person to person, develop and subside. In this paper, we perform a large-scale analysis of cascades on Facebook over significantly longer time scales, and find that a more complex picture emerges, in which many large cascades recur, exhibiting multiple bursts of popularity with periods of quiescence in between. We characterize recurrence by measuring the time elapsed between bursts, their overlap and proximity in the social network, and the diversity in the demographics of individuals participating in each peak. We discover that content virality, as revealed by its initial popularity, is a main driver of recurrence, with the availability of multiple copies of that content helping to spark new bursts. Still, beyond a certain popularity of content, the rate of recurrence drops as cascades start exhausting the population of interested individuals. We reproduce these observed patterns in a simple model of content recurrence simulated on a real social network. Using only characteristics of a cascade's initial burst, we demonstrate strong performance in predicting whether it will recur in the future.

In this paper we analyze approximate methods for undertaking a principal components analysis (PCA) on large data sets. PCA is a classical dimension reduction method that involves the projection of the data onto the subspace spanned by the leading eigenvectors of the covariance matrix. This projection can be used either for exploratory purposes or as an input for further analysis, e.g. regression. If the data have billions of entries or more, the computational and storage requirements for saving and manipulating the design matrix in fast memory is prohibitive. Recently, the Nystr\"om and column-sampling methods have appeared in the numerical linear algebra community for the randomized approximation of the singular value decomposition of large matrices. However, their utility for statistical applications remains unclear. We compare these approximations theoretically by bounding the distance between the induced subspaces and the desired, but computationally infeasible, PCA subspace. Additionally we show empirically, through simulations and a real data example involving a corpus of emails, the trade-off of approximation accuracy and computational complexity.

Traditionally, practitioners initialize the {\tt k-means} algorithm with centers chosen uniformly at random. Randomized initialization with uneven weights ({\tt k-means++}) has recently been used to improve the performance over this strategy in cost and run-time. We consider the k-means problem with semi-supervised information, where some of the data are pre-labeled, and we seek to label the rest according to the minimum cost solution. By extending the {\tt k-means++} algorithm and analysis to account for the labels, we derive an improved theoretical bound on expected cost and observe improved performance in simulated and real data examples. This analysis provides theoretical justification for a roughly linear semi-supervised clustering algorithm.

Mechanisms of human color vision are characterized by two phenomenological aspects: the system is nonlinear and adaptive to changing environments. Conventional attempts to derive these features from statistics use separate arguments for each aspect. The few statistical approaches that do consider both phenomena simultaneously follow parametric formulations based on empirical models. Therefore, it may be argued that the behavior does not come directly from the color statistics but from the convenient functional form adopted. In addition, many times the whole statistical analysis is based on simplified databases that disregard relevant physical effects in the input signal, as for instance by assuming flat Lambertian surfaces. Here we address the simultaneous statistical explanation of (i) the nonlinear behavior of achromatic and chromatic mechanisms in a fixed adaptation state, and (ii) the change of such behavior. Both phenomena emerge directly from the samples through a single data-driven method: the Sequential Principal Curves Analysis (SPCA) with local metric. SPCA is a new manifold learning technique to derive a set of sensors adapted to the manifold using different optimality criteria. A new database of colorimetrically calibrated images of natural objects under these illuminants was collected. The results obtained by applying SPCA show that the psychophysical behavior on color discrimination thresholds, discount of the illuminant and corresponding pairs in asymmetric color matching, emerge directly from realistic data regularities assuming no a priori functional form. These results provide stronger evidence for the hypothesis of a statistically driven organization of color sensors. Moreover, the obtained results suggest that color perception at this low abstraction level may be guided by an error minimization strategy rather than by the information maximization principle.

A successful class of image denoising methods is based on Bayesian approaches working in wavelet representations. However, analytical estimates can be obtained only for particular combinations of analytical models of signal and noise, thus precluding its straightforward extension to deal with other arbitrary noise sources. In this paper, we propose an alternative non-explicit way to take into account the relations among natural image wavelet coefficients for denoising: we use support vector regression (SVR) in the wavelet domain to enforce these relations in the estimated signal. Since relations among the coefficients are specific to the signal, the regularization property of SVR is exploited to remove the noise, which does not share this feature. The specific signal relations are encoded in an anisotropic kernel obtained from mutual information measures computed on a representative image database. Training considers minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) between the estimated and actual probability functions of signal and noise in order to enforce similarity. Due to its non-parametric nature, the method can eventually cope with different noise sources without the need of an explicit re-formulation, as it is strictly necessary under parametric Bayesian formalisms. Results under several noise levels and noise sources show that: (1) the proposed method outperforms conventional wavelet methods that assume coefficient independence, (2) it is similar to state-of-the-art methods that do explicitly include these relations when the noise source is Gaussian, and (3) it gives better numerical and visual performance when more complex, realistic noise sources are considered. Therefore, the proposed machine learning approach can be seen as a more flexible (model-free) alternative to the explicit description of wavelet coefficient relations for image denoising.

This paper presents a new framework for manifold learning based on a sequence of principal polynomials that capture the possibly nonlinear nature of the data. The proposed Principal Polynomial Analysis (PPA) generalizes PCA by modeling the directions of maximal variance by means of curves, instead of straight lines. Contrarily to previous approaches, PPA reduces to performing simple univariate regressions, which makes it computationally feasible and robust. Moreover, PPA shows a number of interesting analytical properties. First, PPA is a volume-preserving map, which in turn guarantees the existence of the inverse. Second, such an inverse can be obtained in closed form. Invertibility is an important advantage over other learning methods, because it permits to understand the identified features in the input domain where the data has physical meaning. Moreover, it allows to evaluate the performance of dimensionality reduction in sensible (input-domain) units. Volume preservation also allows an easy computation of information theoretic quantities, such as the reduction in multi-information after the transform. Third, the analytical nature of PPA leads to a clear geometrical interpretation of the manifold: it allows the computation of Frenet-Serret frames (local features) and of generalized curvatures at any point of the space. And fourth, the analytical Jacobian allows the computation of the metric induced by the data, thus generalizing the Mahalanobis distance. These properties are demonstrated theoretically and illustrated experimentally. The performance of PPA is evaluated in dimensionality and redundancy reduction, in both synthetic and real datasets from the UCI repository.

Most signal processing problems involve the challenging task of multidimensional probability density function (PDF) estimation. In this work, we propose a solution to this problem by using a family of Rotation-based Iterative Gaussianization (RBIG) transforms. The general framework consists of the sequential application of a univariate marginal Gaussianization transform followed by an orthonormal transform. The proposed procedure looks for differentiable transforms to a known PDF so that the unknown PDF can be estimated at any point of the original domain. In particular, we aim at a zero mean unit covariance Gaussian for convenience. RBIG is formally similar to classical iterative Projection Pursuit (PP) algorithms. However, we show that, unlike in PP methods, the particular class of rotations used has no special qualitative relevance in this context, since looking for interestingness is not a critical issue for PDF estimation. The key difference is that our approach focuses on the univariate part (marginal Gaussianization) of the problem rather than on the multivariate part (rotation). This difference implies that one may select the most convenient rotation suited to each practical application. The differentiability, invertibility and convergence of RBIG are theoretically and experimentally analyzed. Relation to other methods, such as Radial Gaussianization (RG), one-class support vector domain description (SVDD), and deep neural networks (DNN) is also pointed out. The practical performance of RBIG is successfully illustrated in a number of multidimensional problems such as image synthesis, classification, denoising, and multi-information estimation.

A key question in modern statistics is how to make fast and reliable inferences for complex, high-dimensional data. While there has been much interest in sparse techniques, current methods do not generalize well to data with nonlinear structure. In this work, we present an orthogonal series estimator for predictors that are complex aggregate objects, such as natural images, galaxy spectra, trajectories, and movies. Our series approach ties together ideas from kernel machine learning, and Fourier methods. We expand the unknown regression on the data in terms of the eigenfunctions of a kernel-based operator, and we take advantage of orthogonality of the basis with respect to the underlying data distribution, P, to speed up computations and tuning of parameters. If the kernel is appropriately chosen, then the eigenfunctions adapt to the intrinsic geometry and dimension of the data. We provide theoretical guarantees for a radial kernel with varying bandwidth, and we relate smoothness of the regression function with respect to P to sparsity in the eigenbasis. Finally, using simulated and real-world data, we systematically compare the performance of the spectral series approach with classical kernel smoothing, k-nearest neighbors regression, kernel ridge regression, and state-of-the-art manifold and local regression methods.