Good predictors of ICU Mortality have the potential to identify high-risk patients earlier, improve ICU resource allocation, or create more accurate population-level risk models. Machine learning practitioners typically make choices about how to represent features in a particular model, but these choices are seldom evaluated quantitatively. This study compares the performance of different representations of clinical event data from MIMIC II in a logistic regression model to predict 36-hour ICU mortality. The most common representations are linear (normalized counts) and binary (yes/no). These, along with a new representation termed "hill", are compared using both L1 and L2 regularization. Results indicate that the introduced "hill" representation outperforms both the binary and linear representations, the hill representation thus has the potential to improve existing models of ICU mortality.

We propose a novel method for network inference from partially observed edges using a node-specific degree prior. The degree prior is derived from observed edges in the network to be inferred, and its hyper-parameters are determined by cross validation. Then we formulate network inference as a matrix completion problem regularized by our degree prior. Our theoretical analysis indicates that this prior favors a network following the learned degree distribution, and may lead to improved network recovery error bound than previous work. Experimental results on both simulated and real biological networks demonstrate the superior performance of our method in various settings.

It is becoming increasingly important for machine learning methods to make predictions that are interpretable as well as accurate. In many practical applications, it is of interest which features and feature interactions are relevant to the prediction task. We present a novel method, Selective Bayesian Forest Classifier, that strikes a balance between predictive power and interpretability by simultaneously performing classification, feature selection, feature interaction detection and visualization. It builds parsimonious yet flexible models using tree-structured Bayesian networks, and samples an ensemble of such models using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We build in feature selection by dividing the trees into two groups according to their relevance to the outcome of interest. Our method performs competitively on classification and feature selection benchmarks in low and high dimensions, and includes a visualization tool that provides insight into relevant features and interactions.

We show that parametric models trained by a stochastic gradient method (SGM) with few iterations have vanishing generalization error. We prove our results by arguing that SGM is algorithmically stable in the sense of Bousquet and Elisseeff. Our analysis only employs elementary tools from convex and continuous optimization. We derive stability bounds for both convex and non-convex optimization under standard Lipschitz and smoothness assumptions. Applying our results to the convex case, we provide new insights for why multiple epochs of stochastic gradient methods generalize well in practice. In the non-convex case, we give a new interpretation of common practices in neural networks, and formally show that popular techniques for training large deep models are indeed stability-promoting. Our findings conceptually underscore the importance of reducing training time beyond its obvious benefit.

Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is a classical representation learning technique for finding correlated variables in multi-view data. Several nonlinear extensions of the original linear CCA have been proposed, including kernel and deep neural network methods. These approaches seek maximally correlated projections among families of functions, which the user specifies (by choosing a kernel or neural network structure), and are computationally demanding. Interestingly, the theory of nonlinear CCA, without functional restrictions, had been studied in the population setting by Lancaster already in the 1950s, but these results have not inspired practical algorithms. We revisit Lancaster's theory to devise a practical algorithm for nonparametric CCA (NCCA). Specifically, we show that the solution can be expressed in terms of the singular value decomposition of a certain operator associated with the joint density of the views. Thus, by estimating the population density from data, NCCA reduces to solving an eigenvalue system, superficially like kernel CCA but, importantly, without requiring the inversion of any kernel matrix. We also derive a partially linear CCA (PLCCA) variant in which one of the views undergoes a linear projection while the other is nonparametric. Using a kernel density estimate based on a small number of nearest neighbors, our NCCA and PLCCA algorithms are memory-efficient, often run much faster, and perform better than kernel CCA and comparable to deep CCA.

This article proposes Multinomial Probit Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (MPBART) as a multinomial probit extension of BART - Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (Chipman et al (2010)). MPBART is flexible to allow inclusion of predictors that describe the observed units as well as the available choice alternatives. Through two simulation studies and four real data examples, we show that MPBART exhibits very good predictive performance in comparison to other discrete choice and multiclass classification methods. To implement MPBART, we have developed an R package mpbart available freely from CRAN repositories.

Minibatching is a very well studied and highly popular technique in supervised learning, used by practitioners due to its ability to accelerate training through better utilization of parallel processing power and reduction of stochastic variance. Another popular technique is importance sampling -- a strategy for preferential sampling of more important examples also capable of accelerating the training process. However, despite considerable effort by the community in these areas, and due to the inherent technical difficulty of the problem, there is no existing work combining the power of importance sampling with the strength of minibatching. In this paper we propose the first {\em importance sampling for minibatches} and give simple and rigorous complexity analysis of its performance. We illustrate on synthetic problems that for training data of certain properties, our sampling can lead to several orders of magnitude improvement in training time. We then test the new sampling on several popular datasets, and show that the improvement can reach an order of magnitude.

The stochastic block model (SBM) is a generative model revealing macroscopic structures in graphs. Bayesian methods are used for (i) cluster assignment inference and (ii) model selection for the number of clusters. In this paper, we study the behavior of Bayesian inference in the SBM in the large sample limit. Combining variational approximation and Laplace's method, a consistent criterion of the fully marginalized log-likelihood is established. Based on that, we derive a tractable algorithm that solves tasks (i) and (ii) concurrently, obviating the need for an outer loop to check all model candidates. Our empirical and theoretical results demonstrate that our method is scalable in computation, accurate in approximation, and concise in model selection.

We study the problem of column selection in large-scale kernel canonical correlation analysis (KCCA) using the Nystr\"om approximation, where one approximates two positive semi-definite kernel matrices using "landmark" points from the training set. When building low-rank kernel approximations in KCCA, previous work mostly samples the landmarks uniformly at random from the training set. We propose novel strategies for sampling the landmarks non-uniformly based on a version of statistical leverage scores recently developed for kernel ridge regression. We study the approximation accuracy of the proposed non-uniform sampling strategy, develop an incremental algorithm that explores the path of approximation ranks and facilitates efficient model selection, and derive the kernel stability of out-of-sample mapping for our method. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the promise of our method.

Contrary to the situation with stochastic gradient descent, we argue that when using stochastic methods with variance reduction, such as SDCA, SAG or SVRG, as well as their variants, it could be beneficial to reuse previously used samples instead of fresh samples, even when fresh samples are available. We demonstrate this empirically for SDCA, SAG and SVRG, studying the optimal sample size one should use, and also uncover be-havior that suggests running SDCA for an integer number of epochs could be wasteful.