I am working on a revenue and sales time series data, and I am trying to find the best forecast model. The data is daily for about 4 years and there are multiple seasonality in the data. I have used ARIMA, exponential smoothing, TS decomposition and a dummy regression models so far. But I am still not sure if these models are the best choices. I was wondering if there are better models which are suitable for the daily data with intense seasonality?

Matrix completion under interval uncertainty can be cast as matrix completion with element-wise box constraints. We present an efficient alternating-direction parallel coordinate-descent method for the problem. We show that the method outperforms any other known method on a benchmark in image in-painting in terms of signal-to-noise ratio, and that it provides high-quality solutions for an instance of collaborative filtering with 100,198,805 recommendations within 5 minutes.

Information diffusion in online social networks is affected by the underlying network topology, but it also has the power to change it. Online users are constantly creating new links when exposed to new information sources, and in turn these links are alternating the way information spreads. However, these two highly intertwined stochastic processes, information diffusion and network evolution, have been predominantly studied separately, ignoring their co-evolutionary dynamics. We propose a temporal point process model, COEVOLVE, for such joint dynamics, allowing the intensity of one process to be modulated by that of the other. This model allows us to efficiently simulate interleaved diffusion and network events, and generate traces obeying common diffusion and network patterns observed in real-world networks. Furthermore, we also develop a convex optimization framework to learn the parameters of the model from historical diffusion and network evolution traces. We experimented with both synthetic data and data gathered from Twitter, and show that our model provides a good fit to the data as well as more accurate predictions than alternatives.

In today's world of big data and the internet of things, it is common for a business to find itself sitting atop a mountain of data. Possessing it is one thing, but leveraging it for data driven decision making is a much different ball game. Gut-feelings and institutionalized heuristics have traditionally been used to guide development of protocol and decision making, but the world of artificial intelligence and big disparate data is changing that. Everyone is trying to make sense of, and extract value from, their data. Those that are not will be left behind. This challenge (and opportunity) is not limited to certain industries.

This post explores the idea that if we can successfully learn multiple levels of representation then we can generalize well. The below flow charts illustrate how the different parts of an AI system relate to each other within different AI disciplines. The shaded boxes indicate components that are able to learn from data. Rule-based systems are hand-designed AI programs. The knowledge required by these programs are provided by experts in the concerned field.

You gather tons of keywords over the Internet with a web crawler (crawling Wikipedia or DMOZ directories), and compute the frequencies for each keyword, and for each "keyword pair". A "keyword pair" is two keywords found on a same web page, or close to each other on a same web page. Also by keyword, I mean stuff like "California insurance", so a keyword usually contains more than one token, but rarely more than three. With all the frequencies, you can create a table (typically containing many million keywords, even after keyword cleaning), where each entry is a pair of keywords and 3 numbers, e.g.

With the meteoric rise of Machine learning, developers are now keen on finding out how can they make their .Net applications smarter. Also, .NET developers are interested into moving into the world of devices and how to apply machine learning techniques to, well, machines. This book is packed with real-world examples to easily use machine learning techniques in your business applications. You will begin with introduction to F# and prepare yourselves for machine learning using .NET framework. You will be writing a simple linear regression model using an example which predicts sales of a product.

Uplift modeling, also known as incremental modeling, true lift modeling, or net-lift modeling is a predictive modeling technique that directly models the incremental impact of a treatment (such as a direct marketing action) on an individual's behavior. Uplift modeling has applications in customer relationship management for up-sell, cross-sell and retention modeling. It has also been applied to personalized medicine. Unlike the related Differential Prediction concept in psychology, Uplift modeling assumes an active agent. All of your marketing effort are about Return on Investment (ROI), ultimately, unless you are a non-profit.

We introduce a data-based approach to estimating key quantities which arise in the study of nonlinear control systems and random nonlinear dynamical systems. Our approach hinges on the observation that much of the existing linear theory may be readily extended to nonlinear systems - with a reasonable expectation of success - once the nonlinear system has been mapped into a high or infinite dimensional feature space. In particular, we develop computable, non-parametric estimators approximating controllability and observability energy functions for nonlinear systems, and study the ellipsoids they induce. In all cases the relevant quantities are estimated from simulated or observed data. It is then shown that the controllability energy estimator provides a key means for approximating the invariant measure of an ergodic, stochastically forced nonlinear system.

We introduce a data-driven order reduction method for nonlinear control systems, drawing on recent progress in machine learning and statistical dimensionality reduction. The method rests on the assumption that the nonlinear system behaves linearly when lifted into a high (or infinite) dimensional feature space where balanced truncation may be carried out implicitly. This leads to a nonlinear reduction map which can be combined with a representation of the system belonging to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space to give a closed, reduced order dynamical system which captures the essential input-output characteristics of the original model. Empirical simulations illustrating the approach are also provided.