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 Statistical Learning


Online ARIMA Algorithms for Time Series Prediction

AAAI Conferences

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is one of the most popular linear models for time series forecasting due to its nice statistical properties and great flexibility. However, its parameters are estimated in a batch manner and its noise terms are often assumed to be strictly bounded, which restricts its applications and makes it inefficient for handling large-scale real data. In this paper, we propose online learning algorithms for estimating ARIMA models under relaxed assumptions on the noise terms, which is suitable to a wider range of applications and enjoys high computational efficiency. The idea of our ARIMA method is to reformulate the ARIMA model into a task of full information online optimization (without random noise terms). As a consequence, we can online estimation of the parameters in an efficient and scalable way. Furthermore, we analyze regret bounds of the proposed algorithms, which guarantee that our online ARIMA model is provably as good as the best ARIMA model in hindsight. Finally, our encouraging experimental results further validate the effectiveness and robustness of our method.


Text Classification with Heterogeneous Information Network Kernels

AAAI Conferences

Text classification is an important problem with many applications. Traditional approaches represent text as a bag-of-words and build classifiers based on this representation. Rather than words, entity phrases, the relations between the entities, as well as the types of the entities and relations carry much more information to represent the texts. This paper presents a novel text as network classification framework, which introduces 1) a structured and typed heterogeneous information networks (HINs) representation of texts, and 2) a meta-path based approach to link texts. We show that with the new representation and links of texts, the structured and typed information of entities and relations can be incorporated into kernels. Particularly, we develop both simple linear kernel and indefinite kernel based on meta-paths in the HIN representation of texts, where we call them HIN-kernels. Using Freebase, a well-known world knowledge base, to construct HIN for texts, our experiments on two benchmark datasets show that the indefinite HIN kernel based on weighted meta-paths outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and other HIN-kernels.


Implicit Discourse Relation Classification via Multi-Task Neural Networks

AAAI Conferences

Without discourse connectives, classifying implicit discourse relations is a challenging task and a bottleneck for building a practical discourse parser. Previous research usually makes use of one kind of discourse framework such as PDTB or RST to improve the classification performance on discourse relations. Actually, under different discourse annotation frameworks, there exist multiple corpora which have internal connections. To exploit the combination of different discourse corpora, we design related discourse classification tasks specific to a corpus, and propose a novel Convolutional Neural Network embedded multi-task learning system to synthesize these tasks by learning both unique and shared representations for each task. The experimental results on the PDTB implicit discourse relation classification task demonstrate that our model achieves significant gains over baseline systems.


Derivative-Free Optimization via Classification

AAAI Conferences

Many randomized heuristic derivative-free optimization methods share a framework that iteratively learns a model for promising search areas and samples solutions from the model. This paper studies a particular setting of such framework, where the model is implemented by a classification model discriminating good solutions from bad ones. This setting allows a general theoretical characterization, where critical factors to the optimization are discovered. We also prove that optimization problems with Local Lipschitz continuity can be solved in polynomial time by proper configurations of this framework. Following the critical factors, we propose the randomized coordinate shrinking classification algorithm to learn the model, forming the RACOS algorithm, for optimization in continuous and discrete domains. Experiments on the testing functions as well as on the machine learning tasks including spectral clustering and classification with Ramp loss demonstrate the effectiveness of RACOS.


Intrinsic and Extrinsic Evaluations of Word Embeddings

AAAI Conferences

In this paper, we first analyze the semantic composition of word embeddings by cross-referencing their clusters with the manual lexical database, WordNet. We then evaluate a variety of word embedding approaches by comparing their contributions to two NLP tasks. Our experiments show that the word embedding clusters give high correlations to the synonym and hyponym sets in WordNet, and give 0.88% and 0.17% absolute improvements in accuracy to named entity recognition and part-of-speech tagging, respectively.


Learning Step Size Controllers for Robust Neural Network Training

AAAI Conferences

This paper investigates algorithms to automatically adapt the learning rate of neural networks (NNs). Starting with stochastic gradient descent, a large variety of learning methods has been proposed for the NN setting. However, these methods are usually sensitive to the initial learning rate which has to be chosen by the experimenter. We investigate several features and show how an adaptive controller can adjust the learning rate without prior knowledge of the learning problem at hand.


Optimizing Multivariate Performance Measures from Multi-View Data

AAAI Conferences

To date, many machine learning applications have multiple views of features, and different applications require specific multivariate performance measures, such as the F-score for retrieval. However, existing multivariate performance measure optimization methods are limited to single-view data, while traditional multi-view learning methods cannot optimize multivariate performance measures directly. To fill this gap, in this paper, we propose the problem of optimizing multivariate performance measures from multi-view data, and an effective method to solve it. We propose to learn linear discriminant functions for different views, and combine them to construct an overall multivariate mapping function for multi-view data. To learn the parameters of the linear discriminant functions of different views to optimize a given multivariate performance measure, we formulate an optimization problem. In this problem, we propose to minimize the complexity of the linear discriminant function of each view, promote the consistency of the responses of different views over the same data points, and minimize the upper boundary of the corresponding loss of a given multivariate performance measure. To optimize this problem, we develop an iterative cutting-plane algorithm. Experiments on four benchmark data sets show that it not only outperforms traditional single-view based multivariate performance optimization methods, but also achieves better results than ordinary multi-view learning methods.


Tracking Idea Flows between Social Groups

AAAI Conferences

In many applications, ideas that are described by a set of words often flow between different groups. To facilitate users in analyzing the flow, we present a method to model the flow behaviors that aims at identifying the lead-lag relationships between word clusters of different user groups. In particular, an improved Bayesian conditional cointegration based on dynamic time warping is employed to learn links between words in different groups. A tensor-based technique is developed to cluster these linked words into different clusters (ideas) and track the flow of ideas. The main feature of the tensor representation is that we introduce two additional dimensions to represent both time and lead-lag relationships. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets show that our method is more effective than methods based on traditional clustering techniques and achieves better accuracy. A case study was conducted to demonstrate the usefulness of our method in helping users understand the flow of ideas between different user groups on social media.


Deep Quantization Network for Efficient Image Retrieval

AAAI Conferences

Hashing has been widely applied to approximate nearest neighbor search for large-scale multimedia retrieval. Supervised hashing improves the quality of hash coding by exploiting the semantic similarity on data pairs and has received increasing attention recently. For most existing supervised hashing methods for image retrieval, an image is first represented as a vector of hand-crafted or machine-learned features, then quantized by a separate quantization step that generates binary codes. However, suboptimal hash coding may be produced, since the quantization error is not statistically minimized and the feature representation is not optimally compatible with the hash coding. In this paper, we propose a novel Deep Quantization Network (DQN) architecture for supervised hashing, which learns image representation for hash coding and formally control the quantization error. The DQN model constitutes four key components: (1) a sub-network with multiple convolution-pooling layers to capture deep image representations; (2) a fully connected bottleneck layer to generate dimension-reduced representation optimal for hash coding; (3) a pairwise cosine loss layer for similarity-preserving learning; and (4) a product quantization loss for controlling hashing quality and the quantizability of bottleneck representation. Extensive experiments on standard image retrieval datasets show the proposed DQN model yields substantial boosts over latest state-of-the-art hashing methods.


Accelerated Sparse Linear Regression via Random Projection

AAAI Conferences

In this paper, we present an accelerated numerical method based on random projection for sparse linear regression. Previous studies have shown that under appropriate conditions, gradient-based methods enjoy a geometric convergence rate when applied to this problem. However, the time complexity of evaluating the gradient is as large as $\mathcal{O}(nd)$, where $n$ is the number of data points and $d$ is the dimensionality, making those methods inefficient for large-scale and high-dimensional dataset. To address this limitation, we first utilize random projection to find a rank-$k$ approximator for the data matrix, and reduce the cost of gradient evaluation to $\mathcal{O}(nk+dk)$, a significant improvement when $k$ is much smaller than $d$ and $n$. Then, we solve the sparse linear regression problem via a proximal gradient method with a homotopy strategy to generate sparse intermediate solutions. Theoretical analysis shows that our method also achieves a global geometric convergence rate, and moreover the sparsity of all the intermediate solutions are well-bounded over the iterations. Finally, we conduct experiments to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method.