Attribution modelling lies at the heart of marketing effectiveness, yet most existing approaches depend on user-level path data, which are increasingly inaccessible due to privacy regulations and platform restrictions. This paper introduces a Causal-Driven Attribution (CDA) framework that infers channel influence using only aggregated impression-level data, avoiding any reliance on user identifiers or click-path tracking. CDA integrates temporal causal discovery (using PCMCI) with causal effect estimation via a Structural Causal Model to recover directional channel relationships and quantify their contributions to conversions. Using large-scale synthetic data designed to replicate real marketing dynamics, we show that CDA achieves an average relative RMSE of 9.50% when given the true causal graph, and 24.23% when using the predicted graph, demonstrating strong accuracy under correct structure and meaningful signal recovery even under structural uncertainty. CDA captures cross-channel interdependencies while providing interpretable, privacy-preserving attribution insights, offering a scalable and future-proof alternative to traditional path-based models.

We consider the problem of ranking $n$ experts according to their abilities, based on the correctness of their answers to $d$ questions. This is modeled by the so-called crowd-sourcing model, where the answer of expert $i$ on question $k$ is modeled by a random entry, parametrized by $M_{i,k}$ which is increasing linearly with the expected quality of the answer. To enable the unambiguous ranking of the experts by ability, several assumptions on $M$ are available in the literature. We consider here the general isotonic crowd-sourcing model, where $M$ is assumed to be isotonic up to an unknown permutation $π^*$ of the experts - namely, $M_{π^{*-1}(i),k} \geq M_{π^{*-1}(i+1),k}$ for any $i\in [n-1], k \in [d]$. Then, ranking experts amounts to constructing an estimator of $π^*$. In particular, we investigate here the existence of statistically optimal and computationally efficient procedures and we describe recent results that disprove the existence of computational-statistical gaps for this problem. To provide insights on the key ideas, we start by discussing simpler and yet related sub-problems, namely sub-matrix detection and estimation. This corresponds to specific instances of the ranking problem where the matrix $M$ is constrained to be of the form $λ\mathbf 1\{S\times T\}$ where $S\subset [n], T\subset [d]$. This model has been extensively studied. We provide an overview of the results and proof techniques for this problem with a particular emphasis on the computational lower bounds based on low-degree polynomial methods. Then, we build upon this instrumental sub-problem to discuss existing results and algorithmic ideas for the general ranking problem.

A methodology is developed to extract $d$ invariant features $W=f(X)$ that predict a response variable $Y$ without being confounded by variables $Z$ that may influence both $X$ and $Y$. The methodology's main ingredient is the penalization of any statistical dependence between $W$ and $Z$ conditioned on $Y$, replaced by the more readily implementable plain independence between $W$ and the random variable $Z_Y = T(Z,Y)$ that solves the [Monge] Optimal Transport Barycenter Problem for $Z\mid Y$. In the Gaussian case considered in this article, the two statements are equivalent. When the true confounders $Z$ are unknown, other measurable contextual variables $S$ can be used as surrogates, a replacement that involves no relaxation in the Gaussian case if the covariance matrix $Σ_{ZS}$ has full range. The resulting linear feature extractor adopts a closed form in terms of the first $d$ eigenvectors of a known matrix. The procedure extends with little change to more general, non-Gaussian / non-linear cases.

We study the problem of subgroup discovery for survival analysis, where the goal is to find an interpretable subset of the data on which a Cox model is highly accurate. Our work is the first to study this particular subgroup problem, for which we make several contributions. Subgroup discovery methods generally require a "quality function" in order to sift through and select the most advantageous subgroups. We first examine why existing natural choices for quality functions are insufficient to solve the subgroup discovery problem for the Cox model. To address the shortcomings of existing metrics, we introduce two technical innovations: the *expected prediction entropy (EPE)*, a novel metric for evaluating survival models which predict a hazard function; and the *conditional rank statistics (CRS)*, a statistical object which quantifies the deviation of an individual point to the distribution of survival times in an existing subgroup. We study the EPE and CRS theoretically and show that they can solve many of the problems with existing metrics. We introduce a total of eight algorithms for the Cox subgroup discovery problem. The main algorithm is able to take advantage of both the EPE and the CRS, allowing us to give theoretical correctness results for this algorithm in a well-specified setting. We evaluate all of the proposed methods empirically on both synthetic and real data. The experiments confirm our theory, showing that our contributions allow for the recovery of a ground-truth subgroup in well-specified cases, as well as leading to better model fit compared to naively fitting the Cox model to the whole dataset in practical settings. Lastly, we conduct a case study on jet engine simulation data from NASA. The discovered subgroups uncover known nonlinearities/homogeneity in the data, and which suggest design choices which have been mirrored in practice.

In this paper, we propose a random gradient-free method for optimization in infinite dimensional Hilbert spaces, applicable to functional optimization in diverse settings. Though such problems are often solved through finite-dimensional gradient descent over a parametrization of the functions, such as neural networks, an interesting alternative is to instead perform gradient descent directly in the function space by leveraging its Hilbert space structure, thus enabling provable guarantees and fast convergence. However, infinite-dimensional gradients are often hard to compute in practice, hindering the applicability of such methods. To overcome this limitation, our framework requires only the computation of directional derivatives and a pre-basis for the Hilbert space domain, i.e., a linearly-independent set whose span is dense in the Hilbert space. This fully resolves the tractability issue, as pre-bases are much more easily obtained than full orthonormal bases or reproducing kernels -- which may not even exist -- and individual directional derivatives can be easily computed using forward-mode scalar automatic differentiation. We showcase the use of our method to solve partial differential equations à la physics informed neural networks (PINNs), where it effectively enables provable convergence.

We study the canonical problem of linear regression under $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-differential privacy when the datapoints are sampled i.i.d.~from a distribution and a fraction of response variables are adversarially corrupted. We provide the first provably efficient -- both computationally and statistically -- method for this problem, assuming standard assumptions on the data distribution. Our algorithm is a variant of the popular differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) algorithm with two key innovations: a full-batch gradient descent to improve sample complexity and a novel adaptive clipping to guarantee robustness. Our method requires only linear time in input size, and still matches the information theoretical optimal sample complexity up to a data distribution dependent condition number factor. Interestingly, the same algorithm, when applied to a setting where there is no adversarial corruption, still improves upon the existing state-of-the-art and achieves a near optimal sample complexity.

Visual information arriving at the retina is transmitted to the brain by signals in the optic nerve, and the brain must rely solely on these signals to make inferences about the visual world. Previous work has probed the content of these signals by directly reconstructing images from retinal activity using linear regression or nonlinear regression with neural networks. Maximum a posteriori (MAP) reconstruction using retinal encoding models and separately-trained natural image priors offers a more general and principled approach. We develop a novel method for approximate MAP reconstruction that combines a generalized linear model for retinal responses to light, including their dependence on spike history and spikes of neighboring cells, with the image prior implicitly embedded in a deep convolutional neural network trained for image denoising. We use this method to reconstruct natural images from ex vivo simultaneously-recorded spikes of hundreds of retinal ganglion cells uniformly sampling a region of the retina. The method produces reconstructions that match or exceed the state-of-the-art in perceptual similarity and exhibit additional fine detail, while using substantially fewer model parameters than previous approaches. The use of more rudimentary encoding models (a linear-nonlinear-Poisson cascade) or image priors (a 1/f spectral model) significantly reduces reconstruction performance, indicating the essential role of both components in achieving high-quality reconstructed images from the retinal signal.

We consider off-policy evaluation and optimization with continuous action spaces. We focus on observational data where the data collection policy is unknown and needs to be estimated from data. We take a semi-parametric approach where the value function takes a known parametric form in the treatment, but we are agnostic on how it depends on the observed contexts. We propose a doubly robust off-policy estimate for this setting and show that off-policy optimization based on this doubly robust estimate is robust to estimation errors of the policy function or the regression model. We also show that the variance of our off-policy estimate achieves the semi-parametric efficiency bound. Our results also apply if the model does not satisfy our semi-parametric form but rather we measure regret in terms of the best projection of the true value function to this functional space. Our work extends prior approaches of policy optimization from observational data that only considered discrete actions. We provide an experimental evaluation of our method in a synthetic data example motivated by optimal personalized pricing.

Adversarial training can achieve robustness against adversarial perturbations and has been widely used in machine-learning models. This paper delivers a non-asymptotic consistency analysis of the adversarial training procedure under $\ell_\infty$-perturbation in high-dimensional linear regression. It will be shown that, under the restricted eigenvalue condition, the associated convergence rate of prediction error can achieve the minimax rate up to a logarithmic factor in the high-dimensional linear regression on the class of sparse parameters. Additionally, the group adversarial training procedure is analyzed. Compared with classic adversarial training, it will be proved that the group adversarial training procedure enjoys a better prediction error upper bound under certain group-sparsity patterns.

Previous works could obtain non-trivial guarantees only under the assumptions that the measurement noise corresponding to the inliers is polynomially small in $n$ (e.g., Gaussian with variance $1/n^2$).To devise our estimators, we equip the Huber loss with non-smooth regularizers such as the $\ell_1$ norm or the nuclear norm, and extend d'Orsi et al.'s approach~\cite{ICML-linear-regression} in a novel way to analyze the loss function.Our machinery appears to be easily applicable to a wide range of estimation problems.We complement these algorithmic results with statistical lower bounds showing that the fraction of inliers that our PCA estimator can deal with is optimal up to a constant factor.