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 Statistical Learning


WhizzML: Level Up

#artificialintelligence

Sure, you can use WhizzML to fill in missing values or to do some basic data cleaning, but what if you want to go crazy? WhizzML is a fully-fledged programming language, after all. We can go as far down the rabbit hole as we want. As we've mentioned before, one of the great things about writing programs in WhizzML is access to highly-scalable, library-free machine learning. To put in another way, cloud-based machine learning operations (learn an ensemble, create a dataset, etc.) are primitives built into the language.


An optimal learning method for developing personalized treatment regimes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A treatment regime is a function that maps individual patient information to a recommended treatment, hence explicitly incorporating the heterogeneity in need for treatment across individuals. Patient responses are dichotomous and can be predicted through an unknown relationship that depends on the patient information and the selected treatment. The goal is to find the treatments that lead to the best patient responses on average. Each experiment is expensive, forcing us to learn the most from each experiment. We adopt a Bayesian approach both to incorporate possible prior information and to update our treatment regime continuously as information accrues, with the potential to allow smaller yet more informative trials and for patients to receive better treatment. By formulating the problem as contextual bandits, we introduce a knowledge gradient policy to guide the treatment assignment by maximizing the expected value of information, for which an approximation method is used to overcome computational challenges. We provide a detailed study on how to make sequential medical decisions under uncertainty to reduce health care costs on a real world knee replacement dataset. We use clustering and LASSO to deal with the intrinsic sparsity in health datasets. We show experimentally that even though the problem is sparse, through careful selection of physicians (versus picking them at random), we can significantly improve the success rates.


Efficient Estimation in the Tails of Gaussian Copulas

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the question of efficient estimation in the tails of Gaussian copulas. Our special focus is estimating expectations over multi-dimensional constrained sets that have a small implied measure under the Gaussian copula. We propose three estimators, all of which rely on a simple idea: identify certain \emph{dominating} point(s) of the feasible set, and appropriately shift and scale an exponential distribution for subsequent use within an importance sampling measure. As we show, the efficiency of such estimators depends crucially on the local structure of the feasible set around the dominating points. The first of our proposed estimators $\estOpt$ is the "full-information" estimator that actively exploits such local structure to achieve bounded relative error in Gaussian settings. The second and third estimators $\estExp$, $\estLap$ are "partial-information" estimators, for use when complete information about the constraint set is not available, they do not exhibit bounded relative error but are shown to achieve polynomial efficiency. We provide sharp asymptotics for all three estimators. For the NORTA setting where no ready information about the dominating points or the feasible set structure is assumed, we construct a multinomial mixture of the partial-information estimator $\estLap$ resulting in a fourth estimator $\estNt$ with polynomial efficiency, and implementable through the ecoNORTA algorithm. Numerical results on various example problems are remarkable, and consistent with theory.


Sub-sampled Newton Methods with Non-uniform Sampling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the problem of finding the minimizer of a convex function $F: \mathbb R^d \rightarrow \mathbb R$ of the form $F(w) := \sum_{i=1}^n f_i(w) + R(w)$ where a low-rank factorization of $\nabla^2 f_i(w)$ is readily available. We consider the regime where $n \gg d$. As second-order methods prove to be effective in finding the minimizer to a high-precision, in this work, we propose randomized Newton-type algorithms that exploit \textit{non-uniform} sub-sampling of $\{\nabla^2 f_i(w)\}_{i=1}^{n}$, as well as inexact updates, as means to reduce the computational complexity. Two non-uniform sampling distributions based on {\it block norm squares} and {\it block partial leverage scores} are considered in order to capture important terms among $\{\nabla^2 f_i(w)\}_{i=1}^{n}$. We show that at each iteration non-uniformly sampling at most $\mathcal O(d \log d)$ terms from $\{\nabla^2 f_i(w)\}_{i=1}^{n}$ is sufficient to achieve a linear-quadratic convergence rate in $w$ when a suitable initial point is provided. In addition, we show that our algorithms achieve a lower computational complexity and exhibit more robustness and better dependence on problem specific quantities, such as the condition number, compared to similar existing methods, especially the ones based on uniform sampling. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that our methods are at least twice as fast as Newton's methods with ridge logistic regression on several real datasets.


Sequential Dimensionality Reduction for Extracting Localized Features

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Linear dimensionality reduction techniques are powerful tools for image analysis as they allow the identification of important features in a data set. In particular, nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) has become very popular as it is able to extract sparse, localized and easily interpretable features by imposing an additive combination of nonnegative basis elements. Nonnegative matrix underapproximation (NMU) is a closely related technique that has the advantage to identify features sequentially. In this paper, we propose a variant of NMU that is particularly well suited for image analysis as it incorporates the spatial information, that is, it takes into account the fact that neighboring pixels are more likely to be contained in the same features, and favors the extraction of localized features by looking for sparse basis elements. We show that our new approach competes favorably with comparable state-of-the-art techniques on synthetic, facial and hyperspectral image data sets.


An Aggregate and Iterative Disaggregate Algorithm with Proven Optimality in Machine Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we propose a clustering-based iterative algorithm to solve certain optimization problems in machine learning when data size is large and thus it becomes impractical to use out-of-the-box algorithms. We rely on the principle of data aggregation and then subsequent disaggregations. While it is standard practice to aggregate the data and then calibrate the machine learning algorithm on aggregated data, we embed this into an iterative framework where initial aggregations are gradually disaggregated to the extent that even an optimal solution is obtainable. Early studies in data aggregation consider transportation problems [1, 10], where either demand or supply nodes are aggregated. Zipkin [31] studied data aggregation for linear programming (LP) and derived error bounds of the approximate solution.


Data Mining History: The Invention of Support Vector Machines

#artificialintelligence

The story starts in Paris in 1989, when I benchmarked neural networks against kernel methods, but the real invention of SVMs happened when Bernhard decided to implement Vladimir Vapnik algorithm.


Heavy Metal and Natural Language Processing - Part 1

#artificialintelligence

In this post I refer to lyrics of certain bands as being "Metal". I know some people have strong feelings about how genres are defined, and would probably disagree with me about some of the bands I call metal in this post. I call these band "Metal" here for the sake of brevity only, and I apologise in advance. It is all around us, and the rate at which it is produced in written, stored form is only increasing. It is also quite unlike any sort of data I have worked with before. Natural language is made up of sequences of discrete characters arranged into hierarchical groupings: words, sentences and documents, each with both syntactic structure and semantic meaning. Not only is the space of possible strings huge, but the interpretation of a small sections of a document can take on vastly different meanings depending on what context surround it.


A Game-Theoretic Approach to Word Sense Disambiguation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a new model for word sense disambiguation formulated in terms of evolutionary game theory, where each word to be disambiguated is represented as a node on a graph whose edges represent word relations and senses are represented as classes. The words simultaneously update their class membership preferences according to the senses that neighboring words are likely to choose. We use distributional information to weigh the influence that each word has on the decisions of the others and semantic similarity information to measure the strength of compatibility among the choices. With this information we can formulate the word sense disambiguation problem as a constraint satisfaction problem and solve it using tools derived from game theory, maintaining the textual coherence. The model is based on two ideas: similar words should be assigned to similar classes and the meaning of a word does not depend on all the words in a text but just on some of them. The paper provides an in-depth motivation of the idea of modeling the word sense disambiguation problem in terms of game theory, which is illustrated by an example. The conclusion presents an extensive analysis on the combination of similarity measures to use in the framework and a comparison with state-of-the-art systems. The results show that our model outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms and can be applied to different tasks and in different scenarios.


A Residual Bootstrap for High-Dimensional Regression with Near Low-Rank Designs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the residual bootstrap (RB) method in the context of high-dimensional linear regression. Specifically, we analyze the distributional approximation of linear contrasts $c^{\top} (\hat{\beta}_{\rho}-\beta)$, where $\hat{\beta}_{\rho}$ is a ridge-regression estimator. When regression coefficients are estimated via least squares, classical results show that RB consistently approximates the laws of contrasts, provided that $p\ll n$, where the design matrix is of size $n\times p$. Up to now, relatively little work has considered how additional structure in the linear model may extend the validity of RB to the setting where $p/n\asymp 1$. In this setting, we propose a version of RB that resamples residuals obtained from ridge regression. Our main structural assumption on the design matrix is that it is nearly low rank --- in the sense that its singular values decay according to a power-law profile. Under a few extra technical assumptions, we derive a simple criterion for ensuring that RB consistently approximates the law of a given contrast. We then specialize this result to study confidence intervals for mean response values $X_i^{\top} \beta$, where $X_i^{\top}$ is the $i$th row of the design. More precisely, we show that conditionally on a Gaussian design with near low-rank structure, RB simultaneously approximates all of the laws $X_i^{\top}(\hat{\beta}_{\rho}-\beta)$, $i=1,\dots,n$. This result is also notable as it imposes no sparsity assumptions on $\beta$. Furthermore, since our consistency results are formulated in terms of the Mallows (Kantorovich) metric, the existence of a limiting distribution is not required.