Distributional regression aims at estimating the conditional distribution of a target variable given explanatory co-variates. It is a crucial tool for forecasting when a precise uncertainty quantification is required. A popular methodology consists in fitting a parametric model via empirical risk minimization where the risk is measured by the Continuous Rank Probability Score (CRPS). For independent and identically distributed observations, we provide a concentration result for the estimation error and an upper bound for its expectation. Furthermore, we consider model selection performed by minimization of the validation error and provide a concentration bound for the regret. A similar result is proved for convex aggregation of models. Finally, we show that our results may be applied to various models such as EMOS, distributional regression networks, distributional nearest neighbours or distributional random forests and we illustrate our findings on two data sets (QSAR aquatic toxicity and Airfoil self-noise).

We propose SWA-Gaussian (SWAG), a simple, scalable, and general purpose approach for uncertainty representation and calibration in deep learning. Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA), which computes the first moment of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) iterates with a modified learning rate schedule, has recently been shown to improve generalization in deep learning. With SWAG, we fit a Gaussian using the SWA solution as the first moment and a low rank plus diagonal covariance also derived from the SGD iterates, forming an approximate posterior distribution over neural network weights; we then sample from this Gaussian distribution to perform Bayesian model averaging. We empirically find that SWAG approximates the shape of the true posterior, in accordance with results describing the stationary distribution of SGD iterates. Moreover, we demonstrate that SWAG performs well on a wide variety of tasks, including out of sample detection, calibration, and transfer learning, in comparison to many popular alternatives including variational inference, MC dropout, KFAC Laplace, and temperature scaling.

An important unresolved challenge in the theory of regularization is to set the regularization coefficients of popular techniques like the ElasticNet with general provable guarantees. We consider the problem of tuning the regularization parameters of Ridge regression, LASSO, and the ElasticNet across multiple problem instances, a setting that encompasses both cross-validation and multi-task hyperparameter optimization. We obtain a novel structural result for the ElasticNet which characterizes the loss as a function of the tuning parameters as a piecewise-rational function with algebraic boundaries. We use this to bound the structural complexity of the regularized loss functions and show generalization guarantees for tuning the ElasticNet regression coefficients in the statistical setting. We also consider the more challenging online learning setting, where we show vanishing average expected regret relative to the optimal parameter pair. We further extend our results to tuning classification algorithms obtained by thresholding regression fits regularized by Ridge, LASSO, or ElasticNet. Our results are the first general learning-theoretic guarantees for this important class of problems that avoid strong assumptions on the data distribution. Furthermore, our guarantees hold for both validation and popular information criterion objectives.

How can local-search methods such as stochastic gradient descent (SGD) avoid bad local minima in training multi-layer neural networks? Why can they fit random labels even given non-convex and non-smooth architectures? Most existing theory only covers networks with one hidden layer, so can we go deeper? In this paper, we focus on recurrent neural networks (RNNs) which are multi-layer networks widely used in natural language processing. They are harder to analyze than feedforward neural networks, because the \emph{same} recurrent unit is repeatedly applied across the entire time horizon of length $L$, which is analogous to feedforward networks of depth $L$. We show when the number of neurons is sufficiently large, meaning polynomial in the training data size and in $L$, then SGD is capable of minimizing the regression loss in the linear convergence rate. This gives theoretical evidence of how RNNs can memorize data. More importantly, in this paper we build general toolkits to analyze multi-layer networks with ReLU activations. For instance, we prove why ReLU activations can prevent exponential gradient explosion or vanishing, and build a perturbation theory to analyze first-order approximation of multi-layer networks.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) is arguably the most important single algorithm in modern machine learning. Although SGD with unbiased gradient estimators has been studied extensively over at least half a century, SGD variants relying on biased estimators are rare. Nevertheless, there has been an increased interest in this topic in recent years. However, existing literature on SGD with biased estimators lacks coherence since each new paper relies on a different set of assumptions, without any clear understanding of how they are connected, which may lead to confusion. We address this gap by establishing connections among the existing assumptions, and presenting a comprehensive map of the underlying relationships. Additionally, we introduce a new set of assumptions that is provably weaker than all previous assumptions, and use it to present a thorough analysis of BiasedSGD in both convex and non-convex settings, offering advantages over previous results. We also provide examples where biased estimators outperform their unbiased counterparts or where unbiased versions are simply not available. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through experimental results that validate our theoretical findings.

In this paper, we study the nonconvex-strongly-concave minimax optimization problem on decentralized setting. The minimax problems are attracting increasing attentions because of their popular practical applications such as policy evaluation and adversarial training. As training data become larger, distributed training has been broadly adopted in machine learning tasks. Recent research works show that the decentralized distributed data-parallel training techniques are specially promising, because they can achieve the efficient communications and avoid the bottleneck problem on the central node or the latency of low bandwidth network. However, the decentralized minimax problems were seldom studied in literature and the existing methods suffer from very high gradient complexity. To address this challenge, we propose a new faster decentralized algorithm, named as DM-HSGD, for nonconvex minimax problems by using the variance reduced technique of hybrid stochastic gradient descent. We prove that our DM-HSGD algorithm achieves stochastic first-order oracle (SFO) complexity of $O(\kappa^3 \epsilon^{-3})$ for decentralized stochastic nonconvex-strongly-concave problem to search an $\epsilon$-stationary point, which improves the exiting best theoretical results. Moreover, we also prove that our algorithm achieves linear speedup with respect to the number of workers. Our experiments on decentralized settings show the superior performance of our new algorithm.

Key to structured prediction is exploiting the problem's structure to simplify the learning process. A major challenge arises when data exhibit a local structure (i.e., are made ``by parts'') that can be leveraged to better approximate the relation between (parts of) the input and (parts of) the output. Recent literature on signal processing, and in particular computer vision, shows that capturing these aspects is indeed essential to achieve state-of-the-art performance. However, in this context algorithms are typically derived on a case-by-case basis. In this work we propose the first theoretical framework to deal with part-based data from a general perspective and study a novel method within the setting of statistical learning theory. Our analysis is novel in that it explicitly quantifies the benefits of leveraging the part-based structure of a problem on the learning rates of the proposed estimator.

In this paper we consider the training stability of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and propose a family of RNNs, namely SBO-RNN, that can be formulated using stochastic bilevel optimization (SBO). With the help of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), we manage to convert the SBO problem into an RNN where the feedforward and backpropagation solve the lower and upper-level optimization for learning hidden states and their hyperparameters, respectively. We prove that under mild conditions there is no vanishing or exploding gradient in training SBO-RNN. Empirically we demonstrate our approach with superior performance on several benchmark datasets, with fewer parameters, less training data, and much faster convergence. Code is available at https://zhang-vislab.github.io.

Sufficient dimension reduction is a powerful tool to extract core information hidden in the high-dimensional data and has potentially many important applications in machine learning tasks. However, the existing nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction methods often lack the scalability necessary for dealing with large-scale data. We propose a new type of stochastic neural network under a rigorous probabilistic framework and show that it can be used for sufficient dimension reduction for large-scale data. The proposed stochastic neural network is trained using an adaptive stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, whose convergence is rigorously studied in the paper as well. Through extensive experiments on real-world classification and regression problems, we show that the proposed method compares favorably with the existing state-of-the-art sufficient dimension reduction methods and is computationally more efficient for large-scale data.

Noisy labels pose a common challenge for training accurate deep neural networks. To mitigate label noise, prior studies have proposed various robust loss functions to achieve noise tolerance in the presence of label noise, particularly symmetric losses. However, they usually suffer from the underfitting issue due to the overly strict symmetric condition. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective approach for relaxing the symmetric condition, namely **$\epsilon$-softmax**, which simply modifies the outputs of the softmax layer to approximate one-hot vectors with a controllable error $\epsilon$. Essentially, ***$\epsilon$-softmax** not only acts as an alternative for the softmax layer, but also implicitly plays the crucial role in modifying the loss function.* We prove theoretically that **$\epsilon$-softmax** can achieve noise-tolerant learning with controllable excess risk bound for almost any loss function. Recognizing that **$\epsilon$-softmax**-enhanced losses may slightly reduce fitting ability on clean datasets, we further incorporate them with one symmetric loss, thereby achieving a better trade-off between robustness and effective learning. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method in mitigating synthetic and real-world label noise.