In this week's Whiteboard Walkthrough Ted Dunning, Chief Application Architect at MapR, explains in detail how to use streaming IoT sensor data from handsets and devices as well as cell tower data to detect strange anomalies. He takes us from best practices for data architecture, including the advantages of multi-master writes with MapR Streams, through analysis of the telecom data using clustering methods to discover normal and anomalous behaviors. I'd like to talk a little bit about data processing in the context of telecom. In particular, what I'll be talking about is how to extend some of the ideas that we've talked about in other videos about anomaly detection to the particular case of telecom data. This is very different than some of the other data that we've been talking about.

In "Components of Time Series Data", I discussed the components of time series data. In time series analysis, we assume that the data consist of a systematic pattern (usually a set of identifiable components) and random noise (error), which often makes the pattern difficult to identify. Most time series analysis techniques involve some form of filtering out noise to make the pattern more noticeable. Though I have discussed other components of time series data, we can describe most time series patterns in terms of two basic classes of components: trend and seasonality. The former represents a general systematic linear or nonlinear component that changes over time and does not repeat, or at least does not repeat within the time range captured by our data (e.g., a plateau followed by a period of exponential growth).

In this paper we study the problem of recovering a structured but unknown parameter ${\bf{\theta}}^*$ from $n$ nonlinear observations of the form $y_i=f(\langle {\bf{x}}_i,{\bf{\theta}}^*\rangle)$ for $i=1,2,\ldots,n$. We develop a framework for characterizing time-data tradeoffs for a variety of parameter estimation algorithms when the nonlinear function $f$ is unknown. This framework includes many popular heuristics such as projected/proximal gradient descent and stochastic schemes. For example, we show that a projected gradient descent scheme converges at a linear rate to a reliable solution with a near minimal number of samples. We provide a sharp characterization of the convergence rate of such algorithms as a function of sample size, amount of a-prior knowledge available about the parameter and a measure of the nonlinearity of the function $f$. These results provide a precise understanding of the various tradeoffs involved between statistical and computational resources as well as a-prior side information available for such nonlinear parameter estimation problems.

Independent component analysis (ICA) is the most popular method for blind source separation (BSS) with a diverse set of applications, such as biomedical signal processing, video and image analysis, and communications. Maximum likelihood (ML), an optimal theoretical framework for ICA, requires knowledge of the true underlying probability density function (PDF) of the latent sources, which, in many applications, is unknown. ICA algorithms cast in the ML framework often deviate from its theoretical optimality properties due to poor estimation of the source PDF. Therefore, accurate estimation of source PDFs is critical in order to avoid model mismatch and poor ICA performance. In this paper, we propose a new and efficient ICA algorithm based on entropy maximization with kernels, (ICA-EMK), which uses both global and local measuring functions as constraints to dynamically estimate the PDF of the sources with reasonable complexity. In addition, the new algorithm performs optimization with respect to each of the cost function gradient directions separately, enabling parallel implementations on multi-core computers. We demonstrate the superior performance of ICA-EMK over competing ICA algorithms using simulated as well as real-world data.

Applied machine learning is a tapestry of breakthroughs and mindset shifts. Understanding the role of randomness in machine learning algorithms is one of those breakthroughs. Once you get it, you will see things differently. You will also start to see the abuses everywhere. In this post, I want to gently open your eyes to the role of random numbers in machine learning.

We focus on the distribution regression problem: regressing to vector-valued outputs from probability measures. Many important machine learning and statistical tasks fit into this framework, including multi-instance learning and point estimation problems without analytical solution (such as hyperparameter or entropy estimation). Despite the large number of available heuristics in the literature, the inherent two-stage sampled nature of the problem makes the theoretical analysis quite challenging, since in practice only samples from sampled distributions are observable, and the estimates have to rely on similarities computed between sets of points. To the best of our knowledge, the only existing technique with consistency guarantees for distribution regression requires kernel density estimation as an intermediate step (which often performs poorly in practice), and the domain of the distributions to be compact Euclidean. In this paper, we study a simple, analytically computable, ridge regression-based alternative to distribution regression, where we embed the distributions to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, and learn the regressor from the embeddings to the outputs. Our main contribution is to prove that this scheme is consistent in the two-stage sampled setup under mild conditions (on separable topological domains enriched with kernels): we present an exact computational-statistical efficiency trade-off analysis showing that our estimator is able to match the one-stage sampled minimax optimal rate [Caponnetto and De Vito, 2007; Steinwart et al., 2009]. This result answers a 17-year-old open question, establishing the consistency of the classical set kernel [Haussler, 1999; Gaertner et. al, 2002] in regression. We also cover consistency for more recent kernels on distributions, including those due to [Christmann and Steinwart, 2010].

We present a sparse estimation and dictionary learning framework for compressed fiber sensing based on a probabilistic hierarchical sparse model. To handle severe dictionary coherence, selective shrinkage is achieved using a Weibull prior, which can be related to non-convex optimization with $p$-norm constraints for $0 < p < 1$. In addition, we leverage the specific dictionary structure to promote collective shrinkage based on a local similarity model. This is incorporated in form of a kernel function in the joint prior density of the sparse coefficients, thereby establishing a Markov random field-relation. Approximate inference is accomplished using a hybrid technique that combines Hamilton Monte Carlo and Gibbs sampling. To estimate the dictionary parameter, we pursue two strategies, relying on either a deterministic or a probabilistic model for the dictionary parameter. In the first strategy, the parameter is estimated based on alternating estimation. In the second strategy, it is jointly estimated along with the sparse coefficients. The performance is evaluated in comparison to an existing method in various scenarios using simulations and experimental data.

Large margin classifiers, such as the support vector machine (SVM) [1] and the maximum entropy discrimination (MED) classifier [2], have enjoyed great popularity in the signal processing and machine learning communities due to their broad applicability, robust performance, and the availability of fast software implementations. When the training data is representative of the test data, the performance of MED/SVM has theoretical guarantees that have been validated in practice [1], [3], [4]. Moreover, since the decision boundary of the MED/SVM is solely defined by a few support vectors, the algorithm can tolerate random feature distortions and perturbations. However, in many real applications, anomalous measurements are inherent to the data set due to strong environmental noise or possible sensor failures. Such anomalies arise in industrial process monitoring, video surveillance, tactical multimodal sensing, robust spectrum sensing [5], [6], and, more generally, any application that involves unattended sensors in difficult environments (Figure 1).

Our methods are based on maximizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the data distribution within and outside an interval of the time series. An empirical analysis shows the benefits of our algorithms compared to methods that treat each time step independently from each other without optimizing with respect to all possible intervals.

Recent advances in Bayesian learning with large-scale data have witnessed emergence of stochastic gradient MCMC algorithms (SG-MCMC), such as stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD), stochastic gradient Hamiltonian MCMC (SGHMC), and the stochastic gradient thermostat. While finite-time convergence properties of the SGLD with a 1st-order Euler integrator have recently been studied, corresponding theory for general SG-MCMCs has not been explored. In this paper we consider general SG-MCMCs with high-order integrators, and develop theory to analyze finite-time convergence properties and their asymptotic invariant measures. Our theoretical results show faster convergence rates and more accurate invariant measures for SG-MCMCs with higher-order integrators. For example, with the proposed efficient 2nd-order symmetric splitting integrator, the {\em mean square error} (MSE) of the posterior average for the SGHMC achieves an optimal convergence rate of $L^{-4/5}$ at $L$ iterations, compared to $L^{-2/3}$ for the SGHMC and SGLD with 1st-order Euler integrators. Furthermore, convergence results of decreasing-step-size SG-MCMCs are also developed, with the same convergence rates as their fixed-step-size counterparts for a specific decreasing sequence. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets verify our theory, and show advantages of the proposed method in two large-scale real applications.