In this paper, we address the fundamental problem of line spectral estimation in a Bayesian framework. We target model order and parameter estimation via variational inference in a probabilistic model in which the frequencies are continuous-valued, i.e., not restricted to a grid; and the coefficients are governed by a Bernoulli-Gaussian prior model turning model order selection into binary sequence detection. Unlike earlier works which retain only point estimates of the frequencies, we undertake a more complete Bayesian treatment by estimating the posterior probability density functions (pdfs) of the frequencies and computing expectations over them. Thus, we additionally capture and operate with the uncertainty of the frequency estimates. Aiming to maximize the model evidence, variational optimization provides analytic approximations of the posterior pdfs and also gives estimates of the additional parameters. We propose an accurate representation of the pdfs of the frequencies by mixtures of von Mises pdfs, which yields closed-form expectations. We define the algorithm VALSE in which the estimates of the pdfs and parameters are iteratively updated. VALSE is a gridless, convergent method, does not require parameter tuning, can easily include prior knowledge about the frequencies and provides approximate posterior pdfs based on which the uncertainty in line spectral estimation can be quantified. Simulation results show that accounting for the uncertainty of frequency estimates, rather than computing just point estimates, significantly improves the performance. The performance of VALSE is superior to that of state-of-the-art methods and closely approaches the Cram\'er-Rao bound computed for the true model order.

In this article, we investigate large sample properties of model selection procedures in a general Bayesian framework when a closed form expression of the marginal likelihood function is not available or a local asymptotic quadratic approximation of the log-likelihood function does not exist. Under appropriate identifiability assumptions on the true model, we provide sufficient conditions for a Bayesian model selection procedure to be consistent and obey the Occam's razor phenomenon, i.e., the probability of selecting the "smallest" model that contains the truth tends to one as the sample size goes to infinity. In order to show that a Bayesian model selection procedure selects the smallest model containing the truth, we impose a prior anti-concentration condition, requiring the prior mass assigned by large models to a neighborhood of the truth to be sufficiently small. In a more general setting where the strong model identifiability assumption may not hold, we introduce the notion of local Bayesian complexity and develop oracle inequalities for Bayesian model selection procedures. Our Bayesian oracle inequality characterizes a trade-off between the approximation error and a Bayesian characterization of the local complexity of the model, illustrating the adaptive nature of averaging-based Bayesian procedures towards achieving an optimal rate of posterior convergence. Specific applications of the model selection theory are discussed in the context of high-dimensional nonparametric regression and density regression where the regression function or the conditional density is assumed to depend on a fixed subset of predictors. As a result of independent interest, we propose a general technique for obtaining upper bounds of certain small ball probability of stationary Gaussian processes.

In many real applications of statistical learning, a decision made from misclassification can be too costly to afford; in this case, a reject option, which defers the decision until further investigation is conducted, is often preferred. In recent years, there has been much development for binary classification with a reject option. Yet, little progress has been made for the multicategory case. In this article, we propose margin-based multicategory classification methods with a reject option. In addition, and more importantly, we introduce a new and unique refine option for the multicategory problem, where the class of an observation is predicted to be from a set of class labels, whose cardinality is not necessarily one. The main advantage of both options lies in their capacity of identifying error-prone observations. Moreover, the refine option can provide more constructive information for classification by effectively ruling out implausible classes. Efficient implementations have been developed for the proposed methods. On the theoretical side, we offer a novel statistical learning theory and show a fast convergence rate of the excess $\ell$-risk of our methods with emphasis on diverging dimensionality and number of classes. The results can be further improved under a low noise assumption. A set of comprehensive simulation and real data studies has shown the usefulness of the new learning tools compared to regular multicategory classifiers. Detailed proofs of theorems and extended numerical results are included in the supplemental materials available online.

In a variety of research areas, the weighted bag of vectors and the histogram are widely used descriptors for complex objects. Both can be expressed as discrete distributions. D2-clustering pursues the minimum total within-cluster variation for a set of discrete distributions subject to the Kantorovich-Wasserstein metric. D2-clustering has a severe scalability issue, the bottleneck being the computation of a centroid distribution, called Wasserstein barycenter, that minimizes its sum of squared distances to the cluster members. In this paper, we develop a modified Bregman ADMM approach for computing the approximate discrete Wasserstein barycenter of large clusters. In the case when the support points of the barycenters are unknown and have low cardinality, our method achieves high accuracy empirically at a much reduced computational cost. The strengths and weaknesses of our method and its alternatives are examined through experiments, and we recommend scenarios for their respective usage. Moreover, we develop both serial and parallelized versions of the algorithm. By experimenting with large-scale data, we demonstrate the computational efficiency of the new methods and investigate their convergence properties and numerical stability. The clustering results obtained on several datasets in different domains are highly competitive in comparison with some widely used methods in the corresponding areas.

In this paper, we develop a new sequential regression modeling approach for data streams. Data streams are commonly found around us, e.g in a retail enterprise sales data is continuously collected every day. A demand forecasting model is an important outcome from the data that needs to be continuously updated with the new incoming data. The main challenge in such modeling arises when there is a) high dimensional and sparsity, b) need for an adaptive use of prior knowledge, and/or c) structural changes in the system. The proposed approach addresses these challenges by incorporating an adaptive L1-penalty and inertia terms in the loss function, and thus called Inertial Regularization and Selection (IRS). The former term performs model selection to handle the first challenge while the latter is shown to address the last two challenges. A recursive estimation algorithm is developed, and shown to outperform the commonly used state-space models, such as Kalman Filters, in experimental studies and real data.

The most well known and ubiquitous clustering problem encountered in nearly every branch of science is undoubtedly $k$-means: given a set of data points and a parameter $k$, select $k$ centres and partition the data points into $k$ clusters around these centres so that the sum of squares of distances of the points to their cluster centre is minimized. Typically these data points lie $\mathbb{R}^d$ for some $d\geq 2$. $k$-means and the first algorithms for it were introduced in the 1950's. Since then, hundreds of papers have studied this problem and many algorithms have been proposed for it. The most commonly used algorithm is known as Lloyd-Forgy, which is also referred to as "the" $k$-means algorithm, and various extensions of it often work very well in practice. However, they may produce solutions whose cost is arbitrarily large compared to the optimum solution. Kanungo et al. [2004] analyzed a simple local search heuristic to get a polynomial-time algorithm with approximation ratio $9+\epsilon$ for any fixed $\epsilon>0$ for $k$-means in Euclidean space. Finding an algorithm with a better approximation guarantee has remained one of the biggest open questions in this area, in particular whether one can get a true PTAS for fixed dimension Euclidean space. We settle this problem by showing that a simple local search algorithm provides a PTAS for $k$-means in $\mathbb{R}^d$ for any fixed $d$. More precisely, for any error parameter $\epsilon>0$, the local search algorithm that considers swaps of up to $\rho=d^{O(d)}\cdot{\epsilon}^{-O(d/\epsilon)}$ centres at a time finds a solution using exactly $k$ centres whose cost is at most a $(1+\epsilon)$-factor greater than the optimum. Finally, we provide the first demonstration that local search yields a PTAS for the uncapacitated facility location problem and $k$-median with non-uniform opening costs in doubling metrics.

Constructing activity budgets for marine animals when they are at sea and cannot be directly observed is challenging, but recent advances in bio-logging technology offer solutions to this problem. Accelerometers can potentially identify a wide range of behaviours for animals based on unique patterns of acceleration. However, when analysing data derived from accelerometers, there are many statistical techniques available which when applied to different data sets produce different classification accuracies. We investigated a selection of supervised machine learning methods for interpreting behavioural data from captive otariids (fur seals and sea lions). We conducted controlled experiments with 12 seals, where their behaviours were filmed while they were wearing 3-axis accelerometers.

We study probability measures induced by set functions with constraints. Such measures arise in a variety of real-world settings, where prior knowledge, resource limitations, or other pragmatic considerations impose constraints. We consider the task of rapidly sampling from such constrained measures, and develop fast Markov chain samplers for them. Our first main result is for MCMC sampling from Strongly Rayleigh (SR) measures, for which we present sharp polynomial bounds on the mixing time. As a corollary, this result yields a fast mixing sampler for Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs), yielding (to our knowledge) the first provably fast MCMC sampler for DPPs since their inception over four decades ago. Beyond SR measures, we develop MCMC samplers for probabilistic models with hard constraints and identify sufficient conditions under which their chains mix rapidly. We illustrate our claims by empirically verifying the dependence of mixing times on the key factors governing our theoretical bounds.

We present a general framework, the coupled compound Poisson factorization (CCPF), to capture the missing-data mechanism in extremely sparse data sets by coupling a hierarchical Poisson factorization with an arbitrary data-generating model. We derive a stochastic variational inference algorithm for the resulting model and, as examples of our framework, implement three different data-generating models---a mixture model, linear regression, and factor analysis---to robustly model non-random missing data in the context of clustering, prediction, and matrix factorization. In all three cases, we test our framework against models that ignore the missing-data mechanism on large scale studies with non-random missing data, and we show that explicitly modeling the missing-data mechanism substantially improves the quality of the results, as measured using data log likelihood on a held-out test set.

We pick the cell size to be bounded by (r)/( (n)), so that each grid cell will contain at most one sample, and thus the grid can be implemented as a simple n-dimensional array of integers: the default 1 indicates no sample, a non-negative integer gives the index of the sample located in a cell. Step 1. Select the initial sample, x0, randomly chosen uniformly from the domain.