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 Statistical Learning


Distributed Weighted Parameter Averaging for SVM Training on Big Data

AAAI Conferences

Two popular approaches for distributed training of SVMs on big data are parameter averaging and alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). Parameter averaging is efficient but suffers from loss of accuracy with increase in number of partitions, while ADMM in the feature space is accurate but suffers from slow convergence. In this paper, we report a hybrid approach called weighted parameter averaging (WPA), which optimizes the regularized hinge loss with respect to weights on parameters. The problem is shown to be same as solving SVM in a projected space. We also demonstrate an O(1/N) stability bound on final hypothesis given by WPA, using novel proof techniques. Experimental results on a variety of toy and real world datasets show that our approach is significantly more accurate than parameter averaging for high number of partitions. It is also seen the proposed method enjoys much faster convergence compared to ADMM in feature space.


Deep Style Match for Complementary Recommendation

AAAI Conferences

Humans develop a common sense of style compatibility between items based on their attributes. We seek to automatically answer questions like "Does this shirt go well with that pair of jeans?" In order to answer these kinds of questions, we attempt to model human sense of style compatibility in this paper. The basic assumption of our approach is that most of the important attributes for a product in an online store are included in its title description. Therefore it is feasible to learn style compatibility from these descriptions. We design a Siamese Convolutional Neural Network architecture and feed it with title pairs of items, which are either compatible or incompatible. Those pairs will be mapped from the original space of symbolic words into some embedded style space. Our approach takes only words as the input with few preprocessing and there is no laborious and expensive feature engineering.


Incorporating Collaborative Ranking Algorithm with Weighted Recursive Autoencoder for Item Recommendation

AAAI Conferences

Collaborative filtering (CF) with implicit feedback is a successful method for recommending items to users, which does not require a knowledge of the items or users. CF methods can be mainly classified into two categories. One is point-wise regression based and the other is pair-wise ranking based, where the latter one only tries to find out the items that users prefer while ignores the items that users dislike, and usually gives out a better recommended item list. The performance of CF-based methods degrades significantly when the feedback information is sparse. To address the problem, many kinds of auxiliary information have been utilized such as users’ reviews on items, items’ content and description information, price, brands. In this paper we utilize a weighted recursive autoencoder (RAE) to extract useful features from several heterogeneous auxiliary information and tightly couple the weighted RAE with a pair-wise ranking based CF method. Analysis of the hyperparameters illustrates that auxiliary information from different sources is indeed able to benefit our model. Empirical experiments on six real world datasets show that our method outperforms other state-of-the-art methods.


An Empirical Analysis of Constrained Support Vector Quantile Regression for Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Power

AAAI Conferences

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision making processes in the smart power gird for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in the form of quantiles, prediction intervals, or full predictive densities. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of an approach for nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of wind power that combines support vector machines and nonlinear quantile regression with non-crossing constraints. A numerical case study is conducted using publicly available wind data from the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014. Multiple quantiles are estimated to form 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% prediction intervals which are evaluated using the pinball loss function and reliability measures. Three benchmark models are used for comparison where results demonstrate the proposed approach leads to significantly better performance while preventing the problem of overlapping quantile estimates.


Energy Disaggregation Methods for Commercial Buildings Using Smart Meter and Operational Data

AAAI Conferences

One of the key information pieces in improving energy efficiency of buildings is the appliance level breakdown of energy consumption. Energy disaggregation is the process of obtaining this breakdown from a building level aggregate data using computational techniques. Most of the current research focuses on residential buildings, obtaining this information from a single smart meter and often relying on high frequency data. This work is directed at commercial buildings equipped with building management and automation systems providing low frequency operational and contextual data. This paper presents a machine learning method to disaggregate energy consumption of the building using this operational data as input features. Experimental results on two publicly available datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, which surpasses existing methods. For all but one appliance of House 2 of the publicly available REDD dataset, improvements in normalized error in assigned power range between 20% (Lighting) and 220% (Stove). For another dataset from an educational facility in Singapore, disaggregation accuracy of 92% is reported for the facility's cooling system.


Deep Learning for Unsupervised Insider Threat Detection in Structured Cybersecurity Data Streams

AAAI Conferences

Analysis of an organization's computer network activity is a key component of early detection and mitigation of insider threat, a growing concern for many organizations. Raw system logs are a prototypical example of streaming data that can quickly scale beyond the cognitive power of a human analyst. As a prospective filter for the human analyst, we present an online unsupervised deep learning approach to detect anomalous network activity from system logs in real time. Our models decompose anomaly scores into the contributions of individual user behavior features for increased interpretability to aid analysts reviewing potential cases of insider threat. Using the CERT Insider Threat Dataset v6.2 and threat detection recall as our performance metric, our novel deep and recurrent neural network models outperform Principal Component Analysis, Support Vector Machine and Isolation Forest based anomaly detection baselines. For our best model, the events labeled as insider threat activity in our dataset had an average anomaly score in the 95.53 percentile, demonstrating our approach's potential to greatly reduce analyst workloads.


Toward Finding Malicious Cyber Discussions in Social Media

AAAI Conferences

Security analysts gather essential information about cyber attacks, exploits, vulnerabilities, and victims by manually searching social media sites. This effort can be dramatically reduced using natural language machine learning techniques. Using a new English text corpus containing more than 250K discussions from Stack Exchange, Reddit, and Twitter on cyber and non-cyber topics, we demonstrate the ability to detect more than 90% of the cyber discussions with fewer than 1% false alarms. If an original searched document corpus includes only 5% cyber documents, then our processing provides an enriched corpus for analysts where 83% to 95% of the documents are on cyber topics. Good performance was obtained using term frequency (TF) – inverse document frequency (IDF) (TF–IDF) features and either logistic regression or linear support vector machine (SVM) classifiers. A classifier trained using prior historical data accurately detected 86% of emergent Heartbleed discussions and retrospective experiments demonstrate that classifier performance remains stable up to a year without retraining.


Detection of Money Laundering Groups: Supervised Learning on Small Networks

AAAI Conferences

Money laundering is a major global problem, enabling criminal organisations to hide their ill-gotten gains and to finance further operations. Prevention of money laundering is seen as a high priority by many governments, however detection of money laundering without prior knowledge of predicate crimes remains a significant challenge. Previous detection systems have tended to focus on individuals, considering transaction histories and applying anomaly detection to identify suspicious behaviour. However, money laundering involves groups of collaborating individuals and evidence of money laundering may only be apparent when the collective behaviour of these groups is considered. In this paper we describe a detection system that is capable of analysing group behaviour, using a combination of network analysis and supervised learning. This system is designed for real-world application and operates on networks consisting of millions of interacting parties. Evaluation of the system using real-world data indicates that suspicious activity is successfully detected. Importantly, the system exhibits a low rate of false positives, and is therefore suitable for use in a live intelligence environment.


Cluster-based Kriging Approximation Algorithms for Complexity Reduction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Kriging or Gaussian Process Regression is applied in many fields as a nonlinear regression model as well as a surrogate model in the field of evolutionary computation. However, the computational and space complexity of Kriging, that is cubic and quadratic in the number of data points respectively, becomes a major bottleneck with more and more data available nowadays. In this paper, we propose a general methodology for the complexity reduction, called cluster Kriging, where the whole data set is partitioned into smaller clusters and multiple Kriging models are built on top of them. In addition, four Kriging approximation algorithms are proposed as candidate algorithms within the new framework. Each of these algorithms can be applied to much larger data sets while maintaining the advantages and power of Kriging. The proposed algorithms are explained in detail and compared empirically against a broad set of existing state-of-the-art Kriging approximation methods on a well-defined testing framework. According to the empirical study, the proposed algorithms consistently outperform the existing algorithms. Moreover, some practical suggestions are provided for using the proposed algorithms. Kriging, or Gaussian Process Regression [1] is a popular and elegant kernel based regression model capable of modeling very complex functions. Kriging is used in many fields e.g. Many other regression models exist, such as parametric models, which are easy to interpret but may lack expressive power to model complex functions.


Network-based methods for outcome prediction in the "sample space"

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this thesis we present the novel semi-supervised network-based algorithm P-Net, which is able to rank and classify patients with respect to a specific phenotype or clinical outcome under study. The peculiar and innovative characteristic of this method is that it builds a network of samples/patients, where the nodes represent the samples and the edges are functional or genetic relationships between individuals (e.g. similarity of expression profiles), to predict the phenotype under study. In other words, it constructs the network in the "sample space" and not in the "biomarker space" (where nodes represent biomolecules (e.g. genes, proteins) and edges represent functional or genetic relationships between nodes), as usual in state-of-the-art methods. To assess the performances of P-Net, we apply it on three different publicly available datasets from patients afflicted with a specific type of tumor: pancreatic cancer, melanoma and ovarian cancer dataset, by using the data and following the experimental set-up proposed in two recently published papers [Barter et al., 2014, Winter et al., 2012]. We show that network-based methods in the "sample space" can achieve results competitive with classical supervised inductive systems. Moreover, the graph representation of the samples can be easily visualized through networks and can be used to gain visual clues about the relationships between samples, taking into account the phenotype associated or predicted for each sample. To our knowledge this is one of the first works that proposes graph-based algorithms working in the "sample space" of the biomolecular profiles of the patients to predict their phenotype or outcome, thus contributing to a novel research line in the framework of the Network Medicine.