Recent research in psycholinguistics has provided increasing evidence that humans predict upcoming content. Prediction also affects perception and might be a key to robustness in human language processing. In this paper, we investigate the factors that affect human prediction by building a computational model that can predict upcoming discourse referents based on linguistic knowledge alone vs. linguistic knowledge jointly with common-sense knowledge in the form of scripts. We find that script knowledge significantly improves model estimates of human predictions. In a second study, we test the highly controversial hypothesis that predictability influences referring expression type but do not find evidence for such an effect.

Given a training set with binary classification, the Support Vector Machine identifies the hyperplane maximizing the margin between the two classes of training data. This general formulation is useful in that it can be applied without regard to variance differences between the classes. Ignoring these differences is not optimal, however, as the general SVM will give the class with lower variance an unjustifiably wide berth. This increases the chance of misclassification of the other class and results in an overall loss of predictive performance. An alternate construction is proposed in which the margins of the separating hyperplane are different for each class, each proportional to the standard deviation of its class along the direction perpendicular to the hyperplane. The construction agrees with the SVM in the case of equal class variances. This paper will then examine the impact to the dual representation of the modified constraint equations.

The Lloyd-Max algorithm is a classical approach to perform K-means clustering. Unfortunately, its cost becomes prohibitive as the training dataset grows large. We propose a compressive version of K-means (CKM), that estimates cluster centers from a sketch, i.e. from a drastically compressed representation of the training dataset. We demonstrate empirically that CKM performs similarly to Lloyd-Max, for a sketch size proportional to the number of cen-troids times the ambient dimension, and independent of the size of the original dataset. Given the sketch, the computational complexity of CKM is also independent of the size of the dataset. Unlike Lloyd-Max which requires several replicates, we further demonstrate that CKM is almost insensitive to initialization. For a large dataset of 10^7 data points, we show that CKM can run two orders of magnitude faster than five replicates of Lloyd-Max, with similar clustering performance on artificial data. Finally, CKM achieves lower classification errors on handwritten digits classification.

In the recent years more and more high-dimensional data sets, where the number of parameters $p$ is high compared to the number of observations $n$ or even larger, are available for applied researchers. Boosting algorithms represent one of the major advances in machine learning and statistics in recent years and are suitable for the analysis of such data sets. While Lasso has been applied very successfully for high-dimensional data sets in Economics, boosting has been underutilized in this field, although it has been proven very powerful in fields like Biostatistics and Pattern Recognition. We attribute this to missing theoretical results for boosting. The goal of this paper is to fill this gap and show that boosting is a competitive method for inference of a treatment effect or instrumental variable (IV) estimation in a high-dimensional setting. First, we present the $L_2$Boosting with componentwise least squares algorithm and variants which are tailored for regression problems which are the workhorse for most Econometric problems. Then we show how $L_2$Boosting can be used for estimation of treatment effects and IV estimation. We highlight the methods and illustrate them with simulations and empirical examples. For further results and technical details we refer to Luo and Spindler (2016, 2017) and to the online supplement of the paper.

In this article, we discuss a general framework to drastically reduce the influence of outliers in most contexts. It applies to problems such as clustering (finding centroids,) regression, measuring correlation or R-Squared, and many more. We will focus on the centroid problem here, as it is very similar and generalizes easily to solving a linear regression. The correlation / R-Squared issue was discussed in an earlier article and involves only a change of formula. Clustering and regression are more complex problems involving iterative algorithms.

It has been almost a year since Tensorflow was released by Google.Although there are a lot of deep learning libraries available(like Theano etc.) but Tensorflow is pretty big!One of the prominent reason is being backed by the big fish,Google! Also tensorflow has pretty great support for distributed systems.Considering the open-source popularity of tensorflow and recent advancements in neural network research,this library is here to stay. In this post we will not only introduce tensorflow but also take a under-the-hood trip to its working.We will start off by going through basics of using tensorflow and analyze "computational graphs" that form the basis of tensorflow's working.Later we will build a linear regression model that would further clarify its working. When we come across the name "Tensorflow",the first thing that invariably comes to mind is the word "tensor".Why "tensor"flow?What is a "tensor"?Well,not dwelling too much on its mathematical representation,consider tensor as a multidimensional array of numbers.Thus all scalars,vectors,matrices fall under the category of tensors. In above program the function tf.constant(value) is used to declare a constant of value value and tf.add(a,b) is used to add two tensors a and b.

We study an online multi-task learning setting, in which instances of related tasks arrive sequentially, and are handled by task-specific online learners. We consider an algorithmic framework to model the relationship of these tasks via a set of convex constraints. To exploit this relationship, we design a novel algorithm -- COOL -- for coordinating the individual online learners: Our key idea is to coordinate their parameters via weighted projections onto a convex set. By adjusting the rate and accuracy of the projection, the COOL algorithm allows for a trade-off between the benefit of coordination and the required computation/communication. We derive regret bounds for our approach and analyze how they are influenced by these trade-off factors. We apply our results on the application of learning users' preferences on the Airbnb marketplace with the goal of incentivizing users to explore under-reviewed apartments.

We introduce Network Maximal Correlation (NMC) as a multivariate measure of nonlinear association among random variables. NMC is defined via an optimization that infers transformations of variables by maximizing aggregate inner products between transformed variables. For finite discrete and jointly Gaussian random variables, we characterize a solution of the NMC optimization using basis expansion of functions over appropriate basis functions. For finite discrete variables, we propose an algorithm based on alternating conditional expectation to determine NMC. Moreover we propose a distributed algorithm to compute an approximation of NMC for large and dense graphs using graph partitioning. For finite discrete variables, we show that the probability of discrepancy greater than any given level between NMC and NMC computed using empirical distributions decays exponentially fast as the sample size grows. For jointly Gaussian variables, we show that under some conditions the NMC optimization is an instance of the Max-Cut problem. We then illustrate an application of NMC in inference of graphical model for bijective functions of jointly Gaussian variables. Finally, we show NMC's utility in a data application of learning nonlinear dependencies among genes in a cancer dataset.

The pathwise coordinate optimization is one of the most important computational frameworks for high dimensional convex and nonconvex sparse learning problems. It differs from the classical coordinate optimization algorithms in three salient features: {\it warm start initialization}, {\it active set updating}, and {\it strong rule for coordinate preselection}. Such a complex algorithmic structure grants superior empirical performance, but also poses significant challenge to theoretical analysis. To tackle this long lasting problem, we develop a new theory showing that these three features play pivotal roles in guaranteeing the outstanding statistical and computational performance of the pathwise coordinate optimization framework. Particularly, we analyze the existing pathwise coordinate optimization algorithms and provide new theoretical insights into them. The obtained insights further motivate the development of several modifications to improve the pathwise coordinate optimization framework, which guarantees linear convergence to a unique sparse local optimum with optimal statistical properties in parameter estimation and support recovery. This is the first result on the computational and statistical guarantees of the pathwise coordinate optimization framework in high dimensions. Thorough numerical experiments are provided to support our theory.

The autoregression integrated moving average model or ARIMA model can seem intimidating to beginners. A good way to pull back the curtain in the method is to to use a trained model to make predictions manually. This demonstrates that ARIMA is a linear regression model at its core. Making manual predictions with a fit ARIMA models may also be a requirement in your project, meaning that you can save the coefficients from the fit model and use them as configuration in your own code to make predictions without the need for heavy Python libraries in a production environment. In this tutorial, you will discover how to make manual predictions with a trained ARIMA model in Python.