There is a widespread need for techniques that can discover structure from time series data. Recently introduced techniques such as Automatic Bayesian Covariance Discovery (ABCD) provide a way to find structure within a single time series by searching through a space of covariance kernels that is generated using a simple grammar. While ABCD can identify a broad class of temporal patterns, it is difficult to extend and can be brittle in practice. This paper shows how to extend ABCD by formulating it in terms of probabilistic program synthesis. The key technical ideas are to (i) represent models using abstract syntax trees for a domain-specific probabilistic language, and (ii) represent the time series model prior, likelihood, and search strategy using probabilistic programs in a sufficiently expressive language. The final probabilistic program is written in under 70 lines of probabilistic code in Venture. The paper demonstrates an application to time series clustering that involves a non-parametric extension to ABCD, experiments for interpolation and extrapolation on real-world econometric data, and improvements in accuracy over both non-parametric and standard regression baselines.

A data filtering method for cluster analysis is proposed, based on minimizing a least squares function with a weighted $\ell_0$-norm penalty. To overcome the discontinuity of the objective function, smooth non-convex functions are employed to approximate the $\ell_0$-norm. The convergence of the global minimum points of the approximating problems towards global minimum points of the original problem is stated. The proposed method also exploits a suitable technique to choose the penalty parameter. Numerical results on synthetic and real data sets are finally provided, showing how some existing clustering methods can take advantages from the proposed filtering strategy.

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a well known method for regression and classification tasks. However, it is an inherently sequential algorithm at each step, the processing of the current example depends on the parameters learned from the previous examples. Prior approaches to parallelizing linear learners using SGD, such as HOGWILD! and ALLREDUCE, do not honor these dependencies across threads and thus can potentially suffer poor convergence rates and/or poor scalability. This paper proposes SYMSGD, a parallel SGD algorithm that, to a first-order approximation, retains the sequential semantics of SGD. Each thread learns a local model in addition to a model combiner, which allows local models to be combined to produce the same result as what a sequential SGD would have produced. This paper evaluates SYMSGD's accuracy and performance on 6 datasets on a shared-memory machine shows upto 11x speedup over our heavily optimized sequential baseline on 16 cores and 2.2x, on average, faster than HOGWILD!.

A principled approach to understand network structures is to formulate generative models. Given a collection of models, however, an outstanding key task is to determine which one provides a more accurate description of the network at hand, discounting statistical fluctuations. This problem can be approached using two principled criteria that at first may seem equivalent: selecting the most plausible model in terms of its posterior probability; or selecting the model with the highest predictive performance in terms of identifying missing links. Here we show that while these two approaches yield consistent results in most of cases, there are also notable instances where they do not, that is, where the most plausible model is not the most predictive. We show that in the latter case the improvement of predictive performance can in fact lead to overfitting both in artificial and empirical settings. Furthermore, we show that, in general, the predictive performance is higher when we average over collections of models that are individually less plausible, than when we consider only the single most plausible model.

We consider large scale empirical risk minimization (ERM) problems, where both the problem dimension and variable size is large. In these cases, most second order methods are infeasible due to the high cost in both computing the Hessian over all samples and computing its inverse in high dimensions. In this paper, we propose a novel adaptive sample size second-order method, which reduces the cost of computing the Hessian by solving a sequence of ERM problems corresponding to a subset of samples and lowers the cost of computing the Hessian inverse using a truncated eigenvalue decomposition. We show that while we geometrically increase the size of the training set at each stage, a single iteration of the truncated Newton method is sufficient to solve the new ERM within its statistical accuracy. Moreover, for a large number of samples we are allowed to double the size of the training set at each stage, and the proposed method subsequently reaches the statistical accuracy of the full training set approximately after two effective passes. In addition to this theoretical result, we show empirically on a number of well known data sets that the proposed truncated adaptive sample size algorithm outperforms stochastic alternatives for solving ERM problems.

We use differential equations based approaches to provide some {\it \textbf{physics}} insights into analyzing the dynamics of popular optimization algorithms in machine learning. In particular, we study gradient descent, proximal gradient descent, coordinate gradient descent, proximal coordinate gradient, and Newton's methods as well as their Nesterov's accelerated variants in a unified framework motivated by a natural connection of optimization algorithms to physical systems. Our analysis is applicable to more general algorithms and optimization problems {\it \textbf{beyond}} convexity and strong convexity, e.g. Polyak-\L ojasiewicz and error bound conditions (possibly nonconvex).

In this work we develop a theory of hierarchical clustering for graphs. Our modeling assumption is that graphs are sampled from a graphon, which is a powerful and general model for generating graphs and analyzing large networks. Graphons are a far richer class of graph models than stochastic blockmodels, the primary setting for recent progress in the statistical theory of graph clustering. We define what it means for an algorithm to produce the "correct" clustering, give sufficient conditions in which a method is statistically consistent, and provide an explicit algorithm satisfying these properties.

We study the worst-case adaptive optimization problem with budget constraint that is useful for modeling various practical applications in artificial intelligence and machine learning. We investigate the near-optimality of greedy algorithms for this problem with both modular and non-modular cost functions. In both cases, we prove that two simple greedy algorithms are not near-optimal but the best between them is near-optimal if the utility function satisfies pointwise submodularity and pointwise cost-sensitive submodularity respectively. This implies a combined algorithm that is near-optimal with respect to the optimal algorithm that uses half of the budget. We discuss applications of our theoretical results and also report experiments comparing the greedy algorithms on the active learning problem.

XGBoost is a library designed and optimized for tree boosting. Gradient boosting trees model is originally proposed by Friedman et al. By embracing multi-threads and introducing regularization, XGBoost delivers higher computational power and more accurate prediction. More than half of the winning solutions in machine learning challenges hosted at Kaggle adopt XGBoost (Incomplete list). XGBoost has provided native interfaces for C, R, python, Julia and Java users.

Last month's post "5 Machine Learning Projects You Can No Longer Overlook" was a well-received piece on 5 lesser-known machine learning projects in the Python ecosystem, and included deep learning libraries, along with auxiliary support, data cleaning, and automation tools. As such, we thought it may be worth doing a follow-up post, but broadening our scope this time. This post will showcase 5 machine learning projects that you may not yet have heard of. This time, however, the projects will include those from across a number of different ecosystems and programming languages, as opposed to focusing solely on Python tools. You may find that, even if you have no requirement for any of these particular tools, inspecting their broad implementation details or their specific code may help in generating some ideas of your own.