We present a novel Metropolis-Hastings method for large datasets that uses small expected-size minibatches of data. Previous work on reducing the cost of Metropolis-Hastings tests yield variable data consumed per sample, with only constant factor reductions versus using the full dataset for each sample. Here we present a method that can be tuned to provide arbitrarily small batch sizes, by adjusting either proposal step size or temperature. Our test uses the noise-tolerant Barker acceptance test with a novel additive correction variable. The resulting test has similar cost to a normal SGD update. Our experiments demonstrate several order-of-magnitude speedups over previous work.

Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations -- require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects that extends Breiman's widely used random forest algorithm. In the potential outcomes framework with unconfoundedness, we show that causal forests are pointwise consistent for the true treatment effect, and have an asymptotically Gaussian and centered sampling distribution. We also discuss a practical method for constructing asymptotic confidence intervals for the true treatment effect that are centered at the causal forest estimates. Our theoretical results rely on a generic Gaussian theory for a large family of random forest algorithms. To our knowledge, this is the first set of results that allows any type of random forest, including classification and regression forests, to be used for provably valid statistical inference. In experiments, we find causal forests to be substantially more powerful than classical methods based on nearest-neighbor matching, especially in the presence of irrelevant covariates.

How can we explain the predictions of a black-box model? In this paper, we use influence functions -- a classic technique from robust statistics -- to trace a model's prediction through the learning algorithm and back to its training data, thereby identifying training points most responsible for a given prediction. To scale up influence functions to modern machine learning settings, we develop a simple, efficient implementation that requires only oracle access to gradients and Hessian-vector products. We show that even on non-convex and non-differentiable models where the theory breaks down, approximations to influence functions can still provide valuable information. On linear models and convolutional neural networks, we demonstrate that influence functions are useful for multiple purposes: understanding model behavior, debugging models, detecting dataset errors, and even creating visually-indistinguishable training-set attacks.

The original ensemble method is Bayesian averaging, but more recent algorithms include error-correcting output coding, bagging, and boosting. So how do ensemble methods work and why are they superior to individual models? Some of the applications of PCA include compression, simplifying data for easier learning, visualization. Notice that domain knowledge is very important while choosing whether to go forward with PCA or not. It is not suitable in cases where data is noisy (all the components of PCA have quite a high variance).

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Since we will be using scientific computing and machine learning packages at some point, I suggest that you install Anaconda. This actually is a reflection of the field of machine learning, since much of what data scientists do involves using machine learning algorithms to varying degrees. Gaining an intimate understanding of machine learning algorithms is beyond the scope of this article, and generally requires substantial amounts of time investment in a more academic setting, or via intense self-study at the very least. For example, when you come across an exercise implementing a regression model below, read the appropriate regression section of Ng's notes and/or view Mitchell's regression videos at that time.

About • subfield of Artificial Intelligence (AI) • name is derived from the concept that it deals with "construction and study of systems that can learn from data" • can be seen as building blocks to make computers learn to behave more intelligently • It is a theoretical concept. There are various techniques with various implementations.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have excellent representative power and are state of the art classifiers on many tasks. However, they often do not capture their own uncertainties well making them less robust in the real world as they overconfidently extrapolate and do not notice domain shift. Gaussian processes (GPs) with RBF kernels on the other hand have better calibrated uncertainties and do not overconfidently extrapolate far from data in their training set. However, GPs have poor representational power and do not perform as well as DNNs on complex domains. In this paper we show that GP hybrid deep networks, GPDNNs, (GPs on top of DNNs and trained end-to-end) inherit the nice properties of both GPs and DNNs and are much more robust to adversarial examples. When extrapolating to adversarial examples and testing in domain shift settings, GPDNNs frequently output high entropy class probabilities corresponding to essentially "don't know". GPDNNs are therefore promising as deep architectures that know when they don't know.

This paper considers the multi-armed thresholding bandit problem -- identifying all arms whose expected rewards are above a predefined threshold via as few pulls (or rounds) as possible -- proposed by Locatelli et al. [2016] recently. Although the proposed algorithm in Locatelli et al. [2016] achieves the optimal round complexity in a certain sense, there still remain unsolved issues. This paper proposes an asynchronous parallel thresholding algorithm and its parameter-free version to improve the efficiency and the applicability. On one hand, the proposed two algorithms use the empirical variance to guide the pull decision at each round, and significantly improve the round complexity of the "optimal" algorithm when all arms have bounded high order moments. The proposed algorithms can be proven to be optimal. On the other hand, most bandit algorithms assume that the reward can be observed immediately after the pull or the next decision would not be made before all rewards are observed. Our proposed asynchronous parallel algorithms allow making the choice of the next pull with unobserved rewards from earlier pulls, which avoids such an unrealistic assumption and significantly improves the identification process. Our theoretical analysis justifies the effectiveness and the efficiency of proposed asynchronous parallel algorithms.

In this paper, we study the problem of learning a mixture of Gaussians with streaming data: given a stream of $N$ points in $d$ dimensions generated by an unknown mixture of $k$ spherical Gaussians, the goal is to estimate the model parameters using a single pass over the data stream. We analyze a streaming version of the popular Lloyd's heuristic and show that the algorithm estimates all the unknown centers of the component Gaussians accurately if they are sufficiently separated. Assuming each pair of centers are $C\sigma$ distant with $C=\Omega((k\log k)^{1/4}\sigma)$ and where $\sigma^2$ is the maximum variance of any Gaussian component, we show that asymptotically the algorithm estimates the centers optimally (up to constants); our center separation requirement matches the best known result for spherical Gaussians \citep{vempalawang}. For finite samples, we show that a bias term based on the initial estimate decreases at $O(1/{\rm poly}(N))$ rate while variance decreases at nearly optimal rate of $\sigma^2 d/N$. Our analysis requires seeding the algorithm with a good initial estimate of the true cluster centers for which we provide an online PCA based clustering algorithm. Indeed, the asymptotic per-step time complexity of our algorithm is the optimal $d\cdot k$ while space complexity of our algorithm is $O(dk\log k)$. In addition to the bias and variance terms which tend to $0$, the hard-thresholding based updates of streaming Lloyd's algorithm is agnostic to the data distribution and hence incurs an approximation error that cannot be avoided. However, by using a streaming version of the classical (soft-thresholding-based) EM method that exploits the Gaussian distribution explicitly, we show that for a mixture of two Gaussians the true means can be estimated consistently, with estimation error decreasing at nearly optimal rate, and tending to $0$ for $N\rightarrow \infty$.