Ensembles of classifier models typically deliver superior performance and can outperform single classifier models given a dataset and classification task at hand. However, the gain in performance comes together with the lack in comprehensibility, posing a challenge to understand how each model affects the classification outputs and where the errors come from. We propose a tight visual integration of the data and the model space for exploring and combining classifier models. We introduce a workflow that builds upon the visual integration and enables the effective exploration of classification outputs and models. We then present a use case in which we start with an ensemble automatically selected by a standard ensemble selection algorithm, and show how we can manipulate models and alternative combinations.

Time series forecasting is widely used in a multitude of domains. In this paper, we present four models to predict the stock price using the S&P 500 index as input time series data. The mean (martingale) and ordinary linear models require the strongest assumption in stationarity which we use as baseline models. The generalized linear model (GLM) requires lesser assumptions but is unable to outperform the martingale. In empirical testing, the RNN model performs the best comparing to other two models, because it will update the input through LSTM instantaneously, but also does not beat the martingale. In addition, we introduce an online-to-batch (OTB) algorithm and discrepancy measure to inform readers the state-of-art predicting method, which doesn't require any stationarity or non-mixing assumptions in time series data. Finally, to apply these forecasting to practice, we introduce basic trading strategies that can create Win-win and Zero-sum situations.

In this paper, we propose a compositional nonparametric method in which a model is expressed as a labeled binary tree of $2k+1$ nodes, where each node is either a summation, a multiplication, or the application of one of the $q$ basis functions to one of the $p$ covariates. We show that in order to recover a labeled binary tree from a given dataset, the sufficient number of samples is $O(k\log(pq)+\log(k!))$, and the necessary number of samples is $\Omega(k\log (pq)-\log(k!))$. We further propose a greedy algorithm for regression in order to validate our theoretical findings through synthetic experiments.

This tutorial provides a gentle introduction to the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm for parameter inference in nonlinear state-space models together with a software implementation in the statistical programming language R. We employ a step-by-step approach to develop an implementation of the PMH algorithm (and the particle filter within) together with the reader. This final implementation is also available as the package pmhtutorial in the CRAN repository. Throughout the tutorial, we provide some intuition as to how the algorithm operates and discuss some solutions to problems that might occur in practice. To illustrate the use of PMH, we consider parameter inference in a linear Gaussian state-space model with synthetic data and a nonlinear stochastic volatility model with real-world data.

The idea of storytelling is fascinating; to take an idea or an incident, and turn it into a story. It brings the idea to life and makes it more interesting. This happens in our day to day life. Whether we narrate a funny incident or our findings, stories have always been the "go-to" to draw interest from listeners and readers alike. For instance; when we talk of how one of our friends got scolded by a teacher, we tend to narrate the incident from the beginning so that a flow is maintained.

A research frontier has emerged in scientific computation, wherein numerical error is regarded as a source of epistemic uncertainty that can be modelled. This raises several statistical challenges, including the design of statistical methods that enable the coherent propagation of probabilities through a (possibly deterministic) computational work-flow. This paper examines the case for probabilistic numerical methods in routine statistical computation. Our focus is on numerical integration, where a probabilistic integrator is equipped with a full distribution over its output that reflects the presence of an unknown numerical error. Our main technical contribution is to establish, for the first time, rates of posterior contraction for these methods. These show that probabilistic integrators can in principle enjoy the "best of both worlds", leveraging the sampling efficiency of Monte Carlo methods whilst providing a principled route to assess the impact of numerical error on scientific conclusions. Several substantial applications are provided for illustration and critical evaluation, including examples from statistical modelling, computer graphics and a computer model for an oil reservoir.

Data-driven predictive analytics are in use today across a number of industrial applications, but further integration is hindered by the requirement of similarity among model training and test data distributions. This paper addresses the need of learning from possibly nonstationary data streams, or under concept drift, a commonly seen phenomenon in practical applications. A simple dual-learner ensemble strategy, alternating learners framework, is proposed. A long-memory model learns stable concepts from a long relevant time window, while a short-memory model learns transient concepts from a small recent window. The difference in prediction performance of these two models is monitored and induces an alternating policy to select, update and reset the two models. The method features an online updating mechanism to maintain the ensemble accuracy, and a concept-dependent trigger to focus on relevant data. Through empirical studies the method demonstrates effective tracking and prediction when the steaming data carry abrupt and/or gradual changes.

This article proposes a Bayesian nonparametric method for forecasting, imputation, and clustering in sparsely observed, multivariate time series. The method is appropriate for jointly modeling hundreds of time series with widely varying, non-stationary dynamics. Given a collection of $N$ time series, the Bayesian model first partitions them into independent clusters using a Chinese restaurant process prior. Within a cluster, all time series are modeled jointly using a novel "temporally-coupled" extension of the Chinese restaurant process mixture. Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are used to obtain samples from the posterior distribution, which are then used to form predictive inferences. We apply the technique to challenging prediction and imputation tasks using seasonal flu data from the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention, demonstrating competitive imputation performance and improved forecasting accuracy as compared to several state-of-the art baselines. We also show that the model discovers interpretable clusters in datasets with hundreds of time series using macroeconomic data from the Gapminder Foundation.

Tensor decomposition methods are popular tools for learning latent variables given only lower-order moments of the data. However, the standard assumption is that we have sufficient data to estimate these moments to high accuracy. In this work, we consider the case in which certain dimensions of the data are not always observed---common in applied settings, where not all measurements may be taken for all observations---resulting in moment estimates of varying quality. We derive a weighted tensor decomposition approach that is computationally as efficient as the non-weighted approach, and demonstrate that it outperforms methods that do not appropriately leverage these less-observed dimensions.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become increasingly important due to their excellent empirical performance on a wide range of problems. However, regularization is generally achieved by indirect means, largely due to the complex set of functions defined by a network and the difficulty in measuring function complexity. There exists no method in the literature for additive regularization based on a norm of the function, as is classically considered in statistical learning theory. In this work, we propose sampling-based approximations to weighted function norms as regularizers for deep neural networks. We provide, to the best of our knowledge, the first proof in the literature of the NP-hardness of computing function norms of DNNs, motivating the necessity of a stochastic optimization strategy. Based on our proposed regularization scheme, stability-based bounds yield a $\mathcal{O}(N^{-\frac{1}{2}})$ generalization error for our proposed regularizer when applied to convex function sets. We demonstrate broad conditions for the convergence of stochastic gradient descent on our objective, including for non-convex function sets such as those defined by DNNs. Finally, we empirically validate the improved performance of the proposed regularization strategy for both convex function sets as well as DNNs on real-world classification and segmentation tasks.