Ok, I recognize that the call to summary() just barfed out a whole lot of information onto the screen.

Now there's something to get you out of bed in the morning! Still, they're an essential element and means for identifying potential problems of any statistical model. For example, the residuals from a linear regression model should be homoscedastic. If not, this indicates an issue with the model such as non-linearity in the data. This post will cover various methods for visualising residuals from regression-based models.

It is often argued that the algorithm used for machine learning is less important than the amount of data used to train the algorithm (e.g., Domingos, 2012; "More data beats a cleverer algorithm"). In a monumental study, Fernández-Delgado and colleagues tested 179 machine learning categorizers on 121 data sets. They found that a large majority of them, were essentially identical in their accuracy. In fact, 121 of them (that's a coincidence) were within 5 percentage points of one another averaging all of the data sets. The following two graphs show the same data organized either by family (color and order) or by accuracy (order) and family (color). Each family relies on the same core classifiers but may use different parameters or different transformations of the data.

We address the problem of bootstrapping language acquisition for an artificial system similarly to what is observed in experiments with human infants. Our method works by associating meanings to words in manipulation tasks, as a robot interacts with objects and listens to verbal descriptions of the interactions. The model is based on an affordance network, i.e., a mapping between robot actions, robot perceptions, and the perceived effects of these actions upon objects. We extend the affordance model to incorporate spoken words, which allows us to ground the verbal symbols to the execution of actions and the perception of the environment. The model takes verbal descriptions of a task as the input and uses temporal co-occurrence to create links between speech utterances and the involved objects, actions, and effects. We show that the robot is able form useful word-to-meaning associations, even without considering grammatical structure in the learning process and in the presence of recognition errors. These word-to-meaning associations are embedded in the robot's own understanding of its actions. Thus, they can be directly used to instruct the robot to perform tasks and also allow to incorporate context in the speech recognition task. We believe that the encouraging results with our approach may afford robots with a capacity to acquire language descriptors in their operation's environment as well as to shed some light as to how this challenging process develops with human infants.

Sleep stage classification constitutes an important preliminary exam in the diagnosis of sleep disorders. It is traditionally performed by a sleep expert who assigns to each 30s of signal a sleep stage, based on the visual inspection of signals such as electroencephalograms (EEG), electrooculograms (EOG), electrocardiograms (ECG) and electromyograms (EMG). We introduce here the first deep learning approach for sleep stage classification that learns end-to-end without computing spectrograms or extracting hand-crafted features, that exploits all multivariate and multimodal Polysomnography (PSG) signals (EEG, EMG and EOG), and that can exploit the temporal context of each 30s window of data. For each modality the first layer learns linear spatial filters that exploit the array of sensors to increase the signal-to-noise ratio, and the last layer feeds the learnt representation to a softmax classifier. Our model is compared to alternative automatic approaches based on convolutional networks or decisions trees. Results obtained on 61 publicly available PSG records with up to 20 EEG channels demonstrate that our network architecture yields state-of-the-art performance. Our study reveals a number of insights on the spatio-temporal distribution of the signal of interest: a good trade-off for optimal classification performance measured with balanced accuracy is to use 6 EEG with 2 EOG (left and right) and 3 EMG chin channels. Also exploiting one minute of data before and after each data segment offers the strongest improvement when a limited number of channels is available. As sleep experts, our system exploits the multivariate and multimodal nature of PSG signals in order to deliver state-of-the-art classification performance with a small computational cost.

High dimensional sparse learning has imposed a great computational challenge to large scale data analysis. In this paper, we are interested in a broad class of sparse learning approaches formulated as linear programs parametrized by a {\em regularization factor}, and solve them by the parametric simplex method (PSM). Our parametric simplex method offers significant advantages over other competing methods: (1) PSM naturally obtains the complete solution path for all values of the regularization parameter; (2) PSM provides a high precision dual certificate stopping criterion; (3) PSM yields sparse solutions through very few iterations, and the solution sparsity significantly reduces the computational cost per iteration. Particularly, we demonstrate the superiority of PSM over various sparse learning approaches, including Dantzig selector for sparse linear regression, LAD-Lasso for sparse robust linear regression, CLIME for sparse precision matrix estimation, sparse differential network estimation, and sparse Linear Programming Discriminant (LPD) analysis. We then provide sufficient conditions under which PSM always outputs sparse solutions such that its computational performance can be significantly boosted. Thorough numerical experiments are provided to demonstrate the outstanding performance of the PSM method.

Tensor completion is a problem of filling the missing or unobserved entries of partially observed tensors. Due to the multidimensional character of tensors in describing complex datasets, tensor completion algorithms and their applications have received wide attention and achievement in data mining, computer vision, signal processing, and neuroscience, etc. In this survey, we provide a modern overview of recent advances in tensor completion algorithms from the perspective of big data analytics characterized by diverse variety, large volume, and high velocity. Towards a better comprehension and comparison of vast existing advances, we summarize and categorize them into four groups including general tensor completion algorithms, tensor completion with auxiliary information (variety), scalable tensor completion algorithms (volume) and dynamic tensor completion algorithms (velocity). Besides, we introduce their applications on real-world data-driven problems and present an open-source package covering several widely used tensor decomposition and completion algorithms. Our goal is to summarize these popular methods and introduce them to researchers for promoting the research process in this field and give an available repository for practitioners. In the end, we also discuss some challenges and promising research directions in this community for future explorations.

We address the problem of prescribing an optimal decision in a framework where its cost depends on uncertain problem parameters $Y$ that need to be learned from data. Earlier work by Bertsimas and Kallus (2014) transforms classical machine learning methods that merely predict $Y$ from supervised training data $[(x_1, y_1), \dots, (x_n, y_n)]$ into prescriptive methods taking optimal decisions specific to a particular covariate context $X=\bar x$. Their prescriptive methods factor in additional observed contextual information on a potentially large number of covariates $X=\bar x$ to take context specific actions $z(\bar x)$ which are superior to any static decision $z$. Any naive use of limited training data may, however, lead to gullible decisions over-calibrated to one particular data set. In this paper, we borrow ideas from distributionally robust optimization and the statistical bootstrap of Efron (1982) to propose two novel prescriptive methods based on (nw) Nadaraya-Watson and (nn) nearest-neighbors learning which safeguard against overfitting and lead to improved out-of-sample performance. Both resulting robust prescriptive methods reduce to tractable convex optimization problems and enjoy a limited disappointment on bootstrap data. We illustrate the data-driven decision-making framework and our novel robustness notion on a small news vendor problem as well as a small portfolio allocation problem.

Climate projections continue to be marred by large uncertainties, which originate in processes that need to be parameterized, such as clouds, convection, and ecosystems. But rapid progress is now within reach. New computational tools and methods from data assimilation and machine learning make it possible to integrate global observations and local high-resolution simulations in an Earth system model (ESM) that systematically learns from both. Here we propose a blueprint for such an ESM. We outline how parameterization schemes can learn from global observations and targeted high-resolution simulations, for example, of clouds and convection, through matching low-order statistics between ESMs, observations, and high-resolution simulations. We illustrate learning algorithms for ESMs with a simple dynamical system that shares characteristics of the climate system; and we discuss the opportunities the proposed framework presents and the challenges that remain to realize it.

Machine learning and predictive analytics are pervasive in our lives today. AI impacts nearly everything we do and interact with including retail and wholesale pricing, consumer habits and behaviors, marketing and advertising, politics, entertainment, sports, medicine, business logistics and planning, fraud and risk detection, airline and truck route planning, pricing strategy, gaming, AI speech recognition, AI image recognition, self-driving cars, and robotics. Yet whether you are creating a self-driving car, predicting customer churn, or cresting a product recommendation system, all machine learning projects follow the same process and the same five basic phases. Data is the new oil. It is quickly becoming the most valuable commodity in the world. Data is like oil because it fuels machine learning projects. Without data, there is no machine learning and no predictive analytics. And just like grades of oil, there are grades of data. Supreme data is like rocket fuel for machine learning models, and buyers pay a premium for it.