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 Statistical Learning


Unbiased estimates for linear regression via volume sampling

Neural Information Processing Systems

Given a full rank matrix X with more columns than rows consider the task of estimating the pseudo inverse $X^+$ based on the pseudo inverse of a sampled subset of columns (of size at least the number of rows). We show that this is possible if the subset of columns is chosen proportional to the squared volume spanned by the rows of the chosen submatrix (ie, volume sampling). The resulting estimator is unbiased and surprisingly the covariance of the estimator also has a closed form: It equals a specific factor times $X^+X^{+\top}$. Pseudo inverse plays an important part in solving the linear least squares problem, where we try to predict a label for each column of $X$. We assume labels are expensive and we are only given the labels for the small subset of columns we sample from $X$. Using our methods we show that the weight vector of the solution for the sub problem is an unbiased estimator of the optimal solution for the whole problem based on all column labels. We believe that these new formulas establish a fundamental connection between linear least squares and volume sampling. We use our methods to obtain an algorithm for volume sampling that is faster than state-of-the-art and for obtaining bounds for the total loss of the estimated least-squares solution on all labeled columns.


Reinforcement Learning under Model Mismatch

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study reinforcement learning under model misspecification, where we do not have access to the true environment but only to a reasonably close approximation to it. We address this problem by extending the framework of robust MDPs of [1, 15, 11] to the model-free Reinforcement Learning setting, where we do not have access to the model parameters, but can only sample states from it. We define robust versions of Q-learning, SARSA, and TD-learning and prove convergence to an approximately optimal robust policy and approximate value function respectively. We scale up the robust algorithms to large MDPs via function approximation and prove convergence under two different settings. We prove convergence of robust approximate policy iteration and robust approximate value iteration for linear architectures (under mild assumptions). We also define a robust loss function, the mean squared robust projected Bellman error and give stochastic gradient descent algorithms that are guaranteed to converge to a local minimum.


Deep Lattice Networks and Partial Monotonic Functions

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose learning deep models that are monotonic with respect to a user-specified set of inputs by alternating layers of linear embeddings, ensembles of lattices, and calibrators (piecewise linear functions), with appropriate constraints for monotonicity, and jointly training the resulting network. We implement the layers and projections with new computational graph nodes in TensorFlow and use the Adam optimizer and batched stochastic gradients. Experiments on benchmark and real-world datasets show that six-layer monotonic deep lattice networks achieve state-of-the art performance for classification and regression with monotonicity guarantees.


Model-Powered Conditional Independence Test

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of non-parametric Conditional Independence testing (CI testing) for continuous random variables. Given i.i.d samples from the joint distribution $f(x,y,z)$ of continuous random vectors $X,Y$ and $Z,$ we determine whether $X \independent Y \vert Z$. We approach this by converting the conditional independence test into a classification problem. This allows us to harness very powerful classifiers like gradient-boosted trees and deep neural networks. These models can handle complex probability distributions and allow us to perform significantly better compared to the prior state of the art, for high-dimensional CI testing. The main technical challenge in the classification problem is the need for samples from the conditional product distribution $f^{CI}(x,y,z) = f(x|z)f(y|z)f(z)$ -- the joint distribution if and only if $X \independent Y \vert Z.$ -- when given access only to i.i.d. samples from the true joint distribution $f(x,y,z)$. To tackle this problem we propose a novel nearest neighbor bootstrap procedure and theoretically show that our generated samples are indeed close to $f^{CI}$ in terms of total variational distance. We then develop theoretical results regarding the generalization bounds for classification for our problem, which translate into error bounds for CI testing. We provide a novel analysis of Rademacher type classification bounds in the presence of non-i.i.d \textit{near-independent} samples. We empirically validate the performance of our algorithm on simulated and real datasets and show performance gains over previous methods.


A PAC-Bayesian Analysis of Randomized Learning with Application to Stochastic Gradient Descent

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms -- focusing on stochastic gradient descent (SGD) -- using a novel combination of PAC-Bayes and algorithmic stability. Importantly, our generalization bounds hold for all posterior distributions on an algorithm's random hyperparameters, including distributions that depend on the training data. This inspires an adaptive sampling algorithm for SGD that optimizes the posterior at runtime. We analyze this algorithm in the context of our generalization bounds and evaluate it on a benchmark dataset. Our experiments demonstrate that adaptive sampling can reduce empirical risk faster than uniform sampling while also improving out-of-sample accuracy.


Estimation of the covariance structure of heavy-tailed distributions

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose and analyze a new estimator of the covariance matrix that admits strong theoretical guarantees under weak assumptions on the underlying distribution, such as existence of moments of only low order. While estimation of covariance matrices corresponding to sub-Gaussian distributions is well-understood, much less in known in the case of heavy-tailed data. As K. Balasubramanian and M. Yuan write, ``data from real-world experiments oftentimes tend to be corrupted with outliers and/or exhibit heavy tails. In such cases, it is not clear that those covariance matrix estimators .. remain optimal'' and ``..what are the other possible strategies to deal with heavy tailed distributions warrant further studies.'' We make a step towards answering this question and prove tight deviation inequalities for the proposed estimator that depend only on the parameters controlling the ``intrinsic dimension'' associated to the covariance matrix (as opposed to the dimension of the ambient space); in particular, our results are applicable in the case of high-dimensional observations.


Alternating Estimation for Structured High-Dimensional Multi-Response Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of learning high-dimensional multi-response linear models with structured parameters. By exploiting the noise correlations among different responses, we propose an alternating estimation (AltEst) procedure to estimate the model parameters based on the generalized Dantzig selector (GDS). Under suitable sample size and resampling assumptions, we show that the error of the estimates generated by AltEst, with high probability, converges linearly to certain minimum achievable level, which can be tersely expressed by a few geometric measures, such as Gaussian width of sets related to the parameter structure. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first non-asymptotic statistical guarantee for such AltEst-type algorithm applied to estimation with general structures.


An Empirical Study on The Properties of Random Bases for Kernel Methods

Neural Information Processing Systems

Kernel machines as well as neural networks possess universal function approximation properties. Nevertheless in practice their ways of choosing the appropriate function class differ. Specifically neural networks learn a representation by adapting their basis functions to the data and the task at hand, while kernel methods typically use a basis that is not adapted during training. In this work, we contrast random features of approximated kernel machines with learned features of neural networks. Our analysis reveals how these random and adaptive basis functions affect the quality of learning. Furthermore, we present basis adaptation schemes that allow for a more compact representation, while retaining the generalization properties of kernel machines.


On Quadratic Convergence of DC Proximal Newton Algorithm in Nonconvex Sparse Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a DC proximal Newton algorithm for solving nonconvex regularized sparse learning problems in high dimensions. Our proposed algorithm integrates the proximal newton algorithm with multi-stage convex relaxation based on the difference of convex (DC) programming, and enjoys both strong computational and statistical guarantees. Specifically, by leveraging a sophisticated characterization of sparse modeling structures (i.e., local restricted strong convexity and Hessian smoothness), we prove that within each stage of convex relaxation, our proposed algorithm achieves (local) quadratic convergence, and eventually obtains a sparse approximate local optimum with optimal statistical properties after only a few convex relaxations. Numerical experiments are provided to support our theory.


Variational Inference via $\chi$ Upper Bound Minimization

Neural Information Processing Systems

Variational inference (VI) is widely used as an efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. It posits a family of approximating distributions $q$ and finds the closest member to the exact posterior $p$. Closeness is usually measured via a divergence $D(q || p)$ from $q$ to $p$. While successful, this approach also has problems. Notably, it typically leads to underestimation of the posterior variance. In this paper we propose CHIVI, a black-box variational inference algorithm that minimizes $D_{\chi}(p || q)$, the $\chi$-divergence from $p$ to $q$. CHIVI minimizes an upper bound of the model evidence, which we term the $\chi$ upper bound (CUBO). Minimizing the CUBO leads to improved posterior uncertainty, and it can also be used with the classical VI lower bound (ELBO) to provide a sandwich estimate of the model evidence. We study CHIVI on three models: probit regression, Gaussian process classification, and a Cox process model of basketball plays. When compared to expectation propagation and classical VI, CHIVI produces better error rates and more accurate estimates of posterior variance.