The picture is accurate, but the more relevant question is "When would each technique be at an advantage?" The obvious difference, correctly depicted, is that the Deep Neural Network is estimating many more parameters and even more permutations of parameters than the logistic regression. Therefore the real question is in what situations would that be a good idea? You need a good ratio of data points to parameters to get reliable estimates so the first criteria would be lots of data in order to estimate lots of parameters. If that's not true then you'd be estimating lots of parameters with little data per parameter and get a bunch of spurious results.

So, what are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods? In this article, I will explain that short answer, without any math. A parameter of interest is just some number that summarizes a phenomenon we're interested in. In general we use statistics to estimate parameters. For example, if we want to learn about the height of human adults, our parameter of interest might be average height in in inches.

Then detection and identification of extreme weather events in large-scale climate simulations is an important problem for risk management, informing governmental policy decisions and advancing our basic understanding of the climate system. Recent work has shown that fully supervised convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can yield acceptable accuracy for classifying well-known types of extreme weather events when large amounts of labeled data are available. However, many different types of spatially localized climate patterns are of interest including hurricanes, extra-tropical cyclones, weather fronts, and blocking events among others. Existing labeled data for these patterns can be incomplete in various ways, such as covering only certain years or geographic areas and having false negatives. This type of climate data therefore poses a number of interesting machine learning challenges. We present a multichannel spatiotemporal CNN architecture for semi-supervised bounding box prediction and exploratory data analysis. We demonstrate that our approach is able to leverage temporal information and unlabeled data to improve the localization of extreme weather events. Further, we explore the representations learned by our model in order to better understand this important data. We present a dataset, ExtremeWeather, to encourage machine learning research in this area and to help facilitate further work in understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change. The dataset is available at extremeweatherdataset.github.io and the code is available at https://github.com/eracah/hur-detect.

Estimation in generalized linear models (GLM) is complicated by the presence of constraints. One can handle constraints by maximizing a penalized log-likelihood. Penalties such as the lasso are effective in high dimensions but often lead to severe shrinkage. This paper explores instead penalizing the squared distance to constraint sets. Distance penalties are more flexible than algebraic and regularization penalties, and avoid the drawback of shrinkage. To optimize distance penalized objectives, we make use of the majorization-minimization principle. Resulting algorithms constructed within this framework are amenable to acceleration and come with global convergence guarantees. Applications to shape constraints, sparse regression, and rank-restricted matrix regression on synthetic and real data showcase the strong empirical performance of distance penalization, even under non-convex constraints.

It is well known that, for a linear program (LP) with constraint matrix $\mathbf{A}\in\mathbb{R}^{m\times n}$, the Alternating Direction Method of Multiplier converges globally and linearly at a rate $O((\|\mathbf{A}\|_F^2+mn)\log(1/\epsilon))$. However, such a rate is related to the problem dimension and the algorithm exhibits a slow and fluctuating ``tail convergence'' in practice. In this paper, we propose a new variable splitting method of LP and prove that our method has a convergence rate of $O(\|\mathbf{A}\|^2\log(1/\epsilon))$. The proof is based on simultaneously estimating the distance from a pair of primal dual iterates to the optimal primal and dual solution set by certain residuals. In practice, we result in a new first-order LP solver that can exploit both the sparsity and the specific structure of matrix $\mathbf{A}$ and a significant speedup for important problems such as basis pursuit, inverse covariance matrix estimation, L1 SVM and nonnegative matrix factorization problem compared with current fastest LP solvers.

In this work, we try to understand the differences between exact and approximate inference algorithms in structured prediction. We compare the estimation and approximation error of both underestimate (e.g., greedy search) and overestimate (e.g., linear relaxation of integer programming) models. The result shows that, from the perspective of learning errors, performances of approximate inference could be as good as exact inference. The error analyses also suggest a new margin for existing learning algorithms. Empirical evaluations on text classification, sequential labelling and dependency parsing witness the success of approximate inference and the benefit of the proposed margin.

The increasing size and complexity of scientific data could dramatically enhance discovery and prediction for basic scientific applications, e.g., neuroscience, genetics, systems biology, etc. Realizing this potential, however, requires novel statistical analysis methods that are both interpretable and predictive. We introduce the Union of Intersections (UoI) method, a flexible, modular, and scalable framework for enhanced model selection and estimation. The method performs model selection and model estimation through intersection and union operations, respectively. We show that UoI can satisfy the bi-criteria of low-variance and nearly unbiased estimation of a small number of interpretable features, while maintaining high-quality prediction accuracy. We perform extensive numerical investigation to evaluate a UoI algorithm ($UoI_{Lasso}$) on synthetic and real data. In doing so, we demonstrate the extraction of interpretable functional networks from human electrophysiology recordings as well as the accurate prediction of phenotypes from genotype-phenotype data with reduced features. We also show (with the $UoI_{L1Logistic}$ and $UoI_{CUR}$ variants of the basic framework) improved prediction parsimony for classification and matrix factorization on several benchmark biomedical data sets. These results suggest that methods based on UoI framework could improve interpretation and prediction in data-driven discovery across scientific fields.

With the newly proposed privacy definition of Rényi Differential Privacy (RDP) in (Mironov, 2017), we re-examine the inherent privacy of releasing a single sample from a posterior distribution. We exploit the impact of the prior distribution in mitigating the influence of individual data points. In particular, we focus on sampling from an exponential family and specific generalized linear models, such as logistic regression. We propose novel RDP mechanisms as well as offering a new RDP analysis for an existing method in order to add value to the RDP framework. Each method is capable of achieving arbitrary RDP privacy guarantees, and we offer experimental results of their efficacy.

Importance sampling has become an indispensable strategy to speed up optimization algorithms for large-scale applications. Improved adaptive variants -- using importance values defined by the complete gradient information which changes during optimization -- enjoy favorable theoretical properties, but are typically computationally infeasible. In this paper we propose an efficient approximation of gradient-based sampling, which is based on safe bounds on the gradient. The proposed sampling distribution is (i) provably the \emph{best sampling} with respect to the given bounds, (ii) always better than uniform sampling and fixed importance sampling and (iii) can efficiently be computed -- in many applications at negligible extra cost. The proposed sampling scheme is generic and can easily be integrated into existing algorithms. In particular, we show that coordinate-descent (CD) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD) can enjoy significant a speed-up under the novel scheme. The proven efficiency of the proposed sampling is verified by extensive numerical testing.

We present hash embeddings, an efficient method for representing words in a continuous vector form. A hash embedding may be seen as an interpolation between a standard word embedding and a word embedding created using a random hash function (the hashing trick). In hash embeddings each token is represented by $k$ $d$-dimensional embeddings vectors and one $k$ dimensional weight vector. The final $d$ dimensional representation of the token is the product of the two. Rather than fitting the embedding vectors for each token these are selected by the hashing trick from a shared pool of $B$ embedding vectors. Our experiments show that hash embeddings can easily deal with huge vocabularies consisting of millions tokens. When using a hash embedding there is no need to create a dictionary before training nor to perform any kind of vocabulary pruning after training. We show that models trained using hash embeddings exhibit at least the same level of performance as models trained using regular embeddings across a wide range of tasks. Furthermore, the number of parameters needed by such an embedding is only a fraction of what is required by a regular embedding. Since standard embeddings and embeddings constructed using the hashing trick are actually just special cases of a hash embedding, hash embeddings can be considered an extension and improvement over the existing regular embedding types.