Linear Regression, GLMs and GAMs with R demonstrates how to use R to extend the basic assumptions and constraints of linear regression to specify, model, and interpret the results of generalized linear (GLMs) and generalized additive (GAMs) models. The course demonstrates the estimation of GLMs and GAMs by working through a series of practical examples from the book Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R by Simon N. Wood (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science, 2006). Linear statistical models have a univariate response modeled as a linear function of predictor variables and a zero mean random error term. The assumption of linearity is a critical (and limiting) characteristic. Generalized linear models (GLMs) relax this assumption of linearity.

Time series are one of the most common data types encountered in daily life. Financial prices, weather, home energy usage, and even weight are all examples of data that can be collected at regular intervals. Almost every data scientist will encounter time series in their daily work and learning how to model them is an important skill in the data science toolbox. One powerful yet simple method for analyzing and predicting periodic data is the additive model. The idea is straightforward: represent a time-series as a combination of patterns at different scales such as daily, weekly, seasonally, and yearly, along with an overall trend.

This project explores several Machine Learning methods to predict movie genres based on plot summaries. Naive Bayes, Word2Vec+XGBoost and Recurrent Neural Networks are used for text classification, while K-binary transformation, rank method and probabilistic classification with learned probability threshold are employed for the multi-label problem involved in the genre tagging task.Experiments with more than 250,000 movies show that employing the Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) neural networks for the probabilistic classification with learned probability threshold approach achieves the best result on the test set. The model attains a Jaccard Index of 50.0%, a F-score of 0.56, and a hit rate of 80.5%.

Given full or partial information about a collection of points that lie close to a union of several subspaces, subspace clustering refers to the process of clustering the points according to their subspace and identifying the subspaces. One popular approach, sparse subspace clustering (SSC), represents each sample as a weighted combination of the other samples, with weights of minimal $\ell_1$ norm, and then uses those learned weights to cluster the samples. SSC is stable in settings where each sample is contaminated by a relatively small amount of noise. However, when there is a significant amount of additive noise, or a considerable number of entries are missing, theoretical guarantees are scarce. In this paper, we study a robust variant of SSC and establish clustering guarantees in the presence of corrupted or missing data. We give explicit bounds on amount of noise and missing data that the algorithm can tolerate, both in deterministic settings and in a random generative model. Notably, our approach provides guarantees for higher tolerance to noise and missing data than existing analyses for this method. By design, the results hold even when we do not know the locations of the missing data; e.g., as in presence-only data.

We propose two new alternating direction methods to solve "fully" nonsmooth constrained convex problems. Our algorithms have the best known worst-case iteration-complexity guarantee under mild assumptions for both the objective residual and feasibility gap. Through theoretical analysis, we show how to update all the algorithmic parameters automatically with clear impact on the convergence performance. We also provide a representative numerical example showing the advantages of our methods over the classical alternating direction methods using a well-known feasibility problem.

Direct policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning and continuous control problems are a popular approach for a variety of reasons: 1) they are easy to implement without explicit knowledge of the underlying model 2) they are an "end-to-end" approach, directly optimizing the performance metric of interest 3) they inherently allow for richly parameterized policies. A notable drawback is that even in the most basic continuous control problem (that of linear quadratic regulators), these methods must solve a non-convex optimization problem, where little is understood about their efficiency from both computational and statistical perspectives. In contrast, system identification and model based planning in optimal control theory have a much more solid theoretical footing, where much is known with regards to their computational and statistical properties. This work bridges this gap showing that (model free) policy gradient methods globally converge to the optimal solution and are efficient (polynomially so in relevant problem dependent quantities) with regards to their sample and computational complexities.

In Divide & Recombine (D&R), big data are divided into subsets, each analytic method is applied to subsets, and the outputs are recombined. This enables deep analysis and practical computational performance. An innovate D\&R procedure is proposed to compute likelihood functions of data-model (DM) parameters for big data. The likelihood-model (LM) is a parametric probability density function of the DM parameters. The density parameters are estimated by fitting the density to MCMC draws from each subset DM likelihood function, and then the fitted densities are recombined. The procedure is illustrated using normal and skew-normal LMs for the logistic regression DM.

The classification of complex data usually requires the composition of processing steps. Here, a major challenge is the selection of optimal algorithms for preprocessing and classification (including parameterizations). Nowadays, parts of the optimization process are automized but expert knowledge and manual work are still required. We present three steps to face this process and ease the optimization. Namely, we take a theoretical view on classical classifiers, provide an approach to interpret the classifier together with the preprocessing, and integrate both into one framework which enables a semiautomatic optimization of the processing chain and which interfaces numerous algorithms.

How can we train a statistical mixture model on a massive data set? In this work we show how to construct coresets for mixtures of Gaussians. A coreset is a weighted subset of the data, which guarantees that models fitting the coreset also provide a good fit for the original data set. We show that, perhaps surprisingly, Gaussian mixtures admit coresets of size polynomial in dimension and the number of mixture components, while being independent of the data set size. Hence, one can harness computationally intensive algorithms to compute a good approximation on a significantly smaller data set. More importantly, such coresets can be efficiently constructed both in distributed and streaming settings and do not impose restrictions on the data generating process. Our results rely on a novel reduction of statistical estimation to problems in computational geometry and new combinatorial complexity results for mixtures of Gaussians. Empirical evaluation on several real-world datasets suggests that our coreset-based approach enables significant reduction in training-time with negligible approximation error.

Due to the lack of information such as the space environment condition and resident space objects' (RSOs') body characteristics, current orbit predictions that are solely grounded on physics-based models may fail to achieve required accuracy for collision avoidance and have led to satellite collisions already. This paper presents a methodology to predict RSOs' trajectories with higher accuracy than that of the current methods. Inspired by the machine learning (ML) theory through which the models are learned based on large amounts of observed data and the prediction is conducted without explicitly modeling space objects and space environment, the proposed ML approach integrates physics-based orbit prediction algorithms with a learning-based process that focuses on reducing the prediction errors. Using a simulation-based space catalog environment as the test bed, the paper demonstrates three types of generalization capability for the proposed ML approach: 1) the ML model can be used to improve the same RSO's orbit information that is not available during the learning process but shares the same time interval as the training data; 2) the ML model can be used to improve predictions of the same RSO at future epochs; and 3) the ML model based on a RSO can be applied to other RSOs that share some common features.