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 Statistical Learning


Beyond Sparsity: Tree Regularization of Deep Models for Interpretability

AAAI Conferences

The lack of interpretability remains a key barrier to the adoption of deep models in many applications. In this work, we explicitly regularize deep models so human users might step through the process behind their predictions in little time. Specifically, we train deep time-series models so their class-probability predictions have high accuracy while being closely modeled by decision trees with few nodes. Using intuitive toy examples as well as medical tasks for treating sepsis and HIV, we demonstrate that this new tree regularization yields models that are easier for humans to simulate than simpler L1 or L2 penalties without sacrificing predictive power.


An Interpretable Joint Graphical Model for Fact-Checking From Crowds

AAAI Conferences

Assessing the veracity of claims made on the Internet is an important, challenging, and timely problem. While automated fact-checking models have potential to help people better assess what they read, we argue such models must be explainable, accurate, and fast to be useful in practice; while prediction accuracy is clearly important, model transparency is critical in order for users to trust the system and integrate their own knowledge with model predictions. To achieve this, we propose a novel probabilistic graphical model (PGM) which combines machine learning with crowd annotations. Nodes in our model correspond to claim veracity, article stance regarding claims, reputation of news sources, and annotator reliabilities. We introduce a fast variational method for parameter estimation. Evaluation across two real-world datasets and three scenarios shows that: (1) joint modeling of sources, claims and crowd annotators in a PGM improves the predictive performance and interpretability for predicting claim veracity; and (2) our variational inference method achieves scalably fast parameter estimation, with only modest degradation in performance compared to Gibbs sampling. Regarding model transparency, we designed and deployed a prototype fact-checker Web tool, including a visual interface for explaining model predictions. Results of a small user study indicate that model explanations improve user satisfaction and trust in model predictions. We share our web demo, model source code, and the 13K crowd labels we collected.


An Interactive Multi-Label Consensus Labeling Model for Multiple Labeler Judgments

AAAI Conferences

Multi-label classification is crucial to several practical applications including document categorization, video tagging, targeted advertising etc. Training a multi-label classifier requires a large amount of labeled data which is often unavailable or scarce. Labeled data is then acquired by consulting multiple labelers---both human and machine. Inspired by ensemble methods, our premise is that labels inferred with high consensus among labelers, might be closer to the ground truth. We propose strategies based on interaction and active learning to obtain higher quality labels that potentially lead to greater consensus. We propose a novel formulation that aims to collectively optimize the cost of labeling, labeler reliability, label-label correlation and inter-labeler consensus. Evaluation on data labeled by multiple labelers (both human and machine) shows that our consensus output is closer to the ground truth when compared to the "majority" baseline. We present illustrative cases where it even improves over the existing ground truth. We also present active learning strategies to leverage our consensus model in interactive learning settings. Experiments on several real-world datasets (publicly available) demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in achieving promising classification results with fewer labeled data.


Large Scale Constrained Linear Regression Revisited: Faster Algorithms via Preconditioning

AAAI Conferences

In this paper, we revisit the large-scale constrained linear regression problem and propose faster methods based on some recent developments in sketching and optimization. Our algorithms combine (accelerated) mini-batch SGD with a new method called two-step preconditioning to achieve an approximate solution with a time complexity lower than that of the state-of-the-art techniques for the low precision case. Our idea can also be extended to the high precision case, which gives an alternative implementation to the Iterative Hessian Sketch (IHS) method with significantly improved time complexity. Experiments on benchmark and synthetic datasets suggest that our methods indeed outperform existing ones considerably in both the low and high precision cases.


Counting Linear Extensions in Practice: MCMC Versus Exponential Monte Carlo

AAAI Conferences

Counting the linear extensions of a given partial order is a #P-complete problem that arises in numerous applications. For polynomial-time approximation, several Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes have been proposed; however, little is known of their efficiency in practice. This work presents an empirical evaluation of the state-of-the-art schemes and investigates a number of ideas to enhance their performance. In addition, we introduce a novel approximation scheme, adaptive relaxation Monte Carlo (ARMC), that leverages exact exponential-time counting algorithms. We show that approximate counting is feasible up to a few hundred elements on various classes of partial orders, and within this range ARMC typically outperforms the other schemes.


Exact Clustering via Integer Programming and Maximum Satisfiability

AAAI Conferences

We consider the following general graph clustering problem: given a complete undirected graph G=(V,E,c) with an edge weight function c:E->Q, we are asked to find a partition C of V that maximizes the sum of edge weights within the clusters in C. Owing to its high generality, this problem has a wide variety of real-world applications, including correlation clustering, group technology, and community detection. In this study, we investigate the design of mathematical programming formulations and constraint satisfaction formulations for the problem. First, we present a novel integer linear programming (ILP) formulation that has far fewer constraints than the standard ILP formulation by Groetschel and Wakabayashi (1989). Second, we propose an ILP-based exact algorithm that solves an ILP problem obtained by modifying our above ILP formulation and then performs simple post-processing to produce an optimal solution to the original problem. Third, we present maximum satisfiability (MaxSAT) counterparts of both our ILP formulation and ILP-based exact algorithm. Computational experiments using well-known real-world datasets demonstrate that our ILP-based approaches and their MaxSAT counterparts are highly effective in terms of both memory efficiency and computation time.


Locality Preserving Projection Based on F-norm

AAAI Conferences

Locality preserving projection (LPP) is a well-known method for dimensionality reduction in which the neighborhood graph structure of data is preserved. Traditional LPP employ squared F-norm for distance measurement. This may exaggerate more distance errors, and result in a model being sensitive to outliers. In order to deal with this issue, we propose two novel F-norm-based models, termed as F-LPP and F-2DLPP, which are developed for vector-based and matrix-based data, respectively. In F-LPP and F-2DLPP, the distance of data projected to a low dimensional space is measured by F-norm. Thus it is anticipated that both methods can reduce the influence of outliers. To solve the F-norm-based models, we propose an iterative optimization algorithm, and give the convergence analysis of algorithm. The experimental results on three public databases have demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed methods.


Efficiently Monitoring Small Data Modification Effect for Large-Scale Learning in Changing Environment

AAAI Conferences

We study large-scale machine learning problems in changing environments where a small part of the dataset is modified, and the effect of the data modification must be monitored in order to know how much the modification changes the optimal model. When the entire dataset is large, even if the amount of the data modification is fairly small, the computational cost for re-training the model would be prohibitively large. In this paper, we propose a novel method, called the optimal solution bounding (OSB), for monitoring such a data modification effect on the optimal model by efficiently evaluating (without actually re-training) it. The proposed method provides bounds on the unknown optimal model with the cost proportional only to the size of the data modification.


A Regression Approach for Modeling Games With Many Symmetric Players

AAAI Conferences

We exploit player symmetry to formulate the representation of large normal-form games as a regression task. This formulation allows arbitrary regression methods to be employed in in estimating utility functions from a small subset of the game's outcomes. We demonstrate the applicability both neural networks and Gaussian process regression, but focus on the latter. Once utility functions are learned, computing Nash equilibria requires estimating expected payoffs of pure-strategy deviations from mixed-strategy profiles. Computing these expectations exactly requires an infeasible sum over the full payoff matrix, so we propose and test several approximation methods. Three of these are simple and generic, applicable to any regression method and games with any number of player roles. However, the best performance is achieved by a continuous integral that approximates the summation, which we formulate for the specific case of fully-symmetric games learned by Gaussian process regression with a radial basis function kernel. We demonstrate experimentally that the combination of learned utility functions and expected payoff estimation allows us to efficiently identify approximate equilibria of large games using sparse payoff data.


A Bayesian Clearing Mechanism for Combinatorial Auctions

AAAI Conferences

We cast the problem of combinatorial auction design in a Bayesian framework in order to incorporate prior information into the auction process and minimize the number of rounds to convergence. We first develop a generative model of agent valuations and market prices such that clearing prices become maximum a posteriori estimates given observed agent valuations. This generative model then forms the basis of an auction process which alternates between refining estimates of agent valuations and computing candidate clearing prices. We provide an implementation of the auction using assumed density filtering to estimate valuations and expectation maximization to compute prices. An empirical evaluation over a range of valuation domains demonstrates that our Bayesian auction mechanism is highly competitive against the combinatorial clock auction in terms of rounds to convergence, even under the most favorable choices of price increment for this baseline.