In this blog, I will show you how to implement a trading strategy using the regime predictions made in the previous blog. Do read it, there is a special discount for you at the end of this. There is one thing that you should keep in mind before you read this blog though: The algorithm is just for demonstration and should not be used for real trading without proper optimization. First, I imported the necessary libraries. Please note that I have imported fix_yahoo_finance package, so I am able to pull data from yahoo.

This paper introduces a nonparametric copula-based index for detecting the strength and monotonicity structure of linear and nonlinear statistical dependence between pairs of random variables or stochastic signals. Our index, termed Copula Index for Detecting Dependence and Monotonicity (CIM), satisfies several desirable properties of measures of association, including R\'enyi's properties, the data processing inequality (DPI), and consequently self-equitability. Synthetic data simulations reveal that the statistical power of CIM compares favorably to other state-of-the-art measures of association that are proven to satisfy the DPI. Simulation results with real-world data reveal the CIM's unique ability to detect the monotonicity structure among stochastic signals to find interesting dependencies in large datasets. Additionally, simulations show that the CIM shows favorable performance to estimators of mutual information when discovering Markov network structure.

Estimating multiple sparse Gaussian Graphical Models (sGGMs) jointly for many related tasks (large $K$) under a high-dimensional (large $p$) situation is an important task. Most previous studies for the joint estimation of multiple sGGMs rely on penalized log-likelihood estimators that involve expensive and difficult non-smooth optimizations. We propose a novel approach, FASJEM for \underline{fa}st and \underline{s}calable \underline{j}oint structure-\underline{e}stimation of \underline{m}ultiple sGGMs at a large scale. As the first study of joint sGGM using the Elementary Estimator framework, our work has three major contributions: (1) We solve FASJEM through an entry-wise manner which is parallelizable. (2) We choose a proximal algorithm to optimize FASJEM. This improves the computational efficiency from $O(Kp^3)$ to $O(Kp^2)$ and reduces the memory requirement from $O(Kp^2)$ to $O(K)$. (3) We theoretically prove that FASJEM achieves a consistent estimation with a convergence rate of $O(\log(Kp)/n_{tot})$. On several synthetic and four real-world datasets, FASJEM shows significant improvements over baselines on accuracy, computational complexity, and memory costs.

In the third article, I introduced the core concept of Linear Regression. To recap, we want to have a function f that models our data. We build an approximator to the function f called g. We use an Error Function in order to measure how good our function approximates the data. The value of our error function is not that great. The closer the value to 0, better our model will be.

We provide an approach for learning deep neural net representations of models described via conditional moment restrictions. Conditional moment restrictions are widely used, as they are the language by which social scientists describe the assumptions they make to enable causal inference. We formulate the problem of estimating the underling model as a zero-sum game between a modeler and an adversary and apply adversarial training. Our approach is similar in nature to Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), though here the modeler is learning a representation of a function that satisfies a continuum of moment conditions and the adversary is identifying violating moments. We outline ways of constructing effective adversaries in practice, including kernels centered by k-means clustering, and random forests. We examine the practical performance of our approach in the setting of non-parametric instrumental variable regression.

A new Bayesian modeling method is proposed by combining the maximization of the marginal likelihood with a momentum-space renormalization group transformation for Gaussian graphical models. Moreover, we present a scheme for computint the statistical averages of hyperparameters and mean square errors in our proposed method based on a momentumspace renormalization transformation.

While training a machine learning model using multiple workers, each of which collects data from their own data sources, it would be most useful when the data collected from different workers can be {\em unique} and {\em different}. Ironically, recent analysis of decentralized parallel stochastic gradient descent (D-PSGD) relies on the assumption that the data hosted on different workers are {\em not too different}. In this paper, we ask the question: {\em Can we design a decentralized parallel stochastic gradient descent algorithm that is less sensitive to the data variance across workers?} In this paper, we present D$^2$, a novel decentralized parallel stochastic gradient descent algorithm designed for large data variance \xr{among workers} (imprecisely, "decentralized" data). The core of D$^2$ is a variance blackuction extension of the standard D-PSGD algorithm, which improves the convergence rate from $O\left({\sigma \over \sqrt{nT}} + {(n\zeta^2)^{\frac{1}{3}} \over T^{2/3}}\right)$ to $O\left({\sigma \over \sqrt{nT}}\right)$ where $\zeta^{2}$ denotes the variance among data on different workers. As a result, D$^2$ is robust to data variance among workers. We empirically evaluated D$^2$ on image classification tasks where each worker has access to only the data of a limited set of labels, and find that D$^2$ significantly outperforms D-PSGD.

We consider the problem of link prediction, based on partial observation of a large network, and on side information associated to its vertices. The generative model is formulated as a matrix logistic regression. The performance of the model is analysed in a high-dimensional regime under a structural assumption. The minimax rate for the Frobenius-norm risk is established and a combinatorial estimator based on the penalised maximum likelihood approach is shown to achieve it. Furthermore, it is shown that this rate cannot be attained by any (randomised) algorithm computable in polynomial time under a computational complexity assumption.

Analyzing large volumes of high-dimensional data is an issue of fundamental importance in data science, molecular simulations and beyond. Several approaches work on the assumption that the important content of a dataset belongs to a manifold whose Intrinsic Dimension (ID) is much lower than the crude large number of coordinates. Such manifold is generally twisted and curved, in addition points on it will be non-uniformly distributed: two factors that make the identification of the ID and its exploitation really hard. Here we propose a new ID estimator using only the distance of the first and the second nearest neighbor of each point in the sample. This extreme minimality enables us to reduce the effects of curvature, of density variation, and the resulting computational cost. The ID estimator is theoretically exact in uniformly distributed datasets, and provides consistent measures in general. When used in combination with block analysis, it allows discriminating the relevant dimensions as a function of the block size. This allows estimating the ID even when the data lie on a manifold perturbed by a high-dimensional noise, a situation often encountered in real world data sets. We demonstrate the usefulness of the approach on molecular simulations and image analysis.

This work incorporates the multi-modality of the data distribution into a Gaussian Process regression model. We approach the problem from a discriminative perspective by learning, jointly over the training data, the target space variance in the neighborhood of a certain sample through metric learning. We start by using data centers rather than all training samples. Subsequently, each center selects an individualized kernel metric. This enables each center to adjust the kernel space in its vicinity in correspondence with the topology of the targets --- a multi-modal approach. We additionally add descriptiveness by allowing each center to learn a precision matrix. We demonstrate empirically the reliability of the model.