Constraint-based clustering algorithms exploit background knowledge to construct clusterings that are aligned with the interests of a particular user. This background knowledge is often obtained by allowing the clustering system to pose pairwise queries to the user: should these two elements be in the same cluster or not? Active clustering methods aim to minimize the number of queries needed to obtain a good clustering by querying the most informative pairs first. Ideally, a user should be able to answer a couple of these queries, inspect the resulting clustering, and repeat these two steps until a satisfactory result is obtained. We present COBRAS, an approach to active clustering with pairwise constraints that is suited for such an interactive clustering process. A core concept in COBRAS is that of a super-instance: a local region in the data in which all instances are assumed to belong to the same cluster. COBRAS constructs such super-instances in a top-down manner to produce high-quality results early on in the clustering process, and keeps refining these super-instances as more pairwise queries are given to get more detailed clusterings later on. We experimentally demonstrate that COBRAS produces good clusterings at fast run times, making it an excellent candidate for the iterative clustering scenario outlined above.

Let's say I am given an Excel sheet with data about various fruits and I have to tell which look like Apples. What I will do is ask a question "Which fruits are red and round?" and divide all fruits which answer yes and no to the question. Now, All Red and Round fruits might not be apples and all apples won't be red and round. So I will ask a question "Which fruits have red or yellow color hints on them? " on red and round fruits and will ask "Which fruits are green and round?" on not red and round fruits. Based on these questions I can tell with considerable accuracy which are apples. This cascade of questions is what a decision tree is. However, this is a decision tree based on my intuition.

Well-established methods for the solution of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) typically struggle in problems with high-dimensional inputs/outputs. Such difficulties are only amplified in large-scale applications where even a few tens of full-order model runs are impracticable. While dimensionality reduction can alleviate some of these issues, it is not known which and how many features of the (high-dimensional) input are actually predictive of the (high-dimensional) output. In this paper, we advocate a Bayesian formulation that is capable of performing simultaneous dimension and model-order reduction. It consists of a component that encodes the high-dimensional input into a low-dimensional set of feature functions by employing sparsity-enforcing priors and a decoding component that makes use of the solution of a coarse-grained model in order to reconstruct that of the full-order model. Both components are represented with latent variables in a probabilistic graphical model and are simultaneously trained using Stochastic Variational Inference methods. The model is capable of quantifying the predictive uncertainty due to the information loss that unavoidably takes place in any model-order/dimension reduction as well as the uncertainty arising from finite-sized training datasets. We demonstrate its capabilities in the context of random media where fine-scale fluctuations can give rise to random inputs with tens of thousands of variables. With a few tens of full-order model simulations, the proposed model is capable of identifying salient physical features and produce sharp predictions under different boundary conditions of the full output which itself consists of thousands of components.

For highly sensitive real-world predictive analytic applications such as healthcare and medicine, having good prediction accuracy alone is often not enough. These kinds of applications require a decision making process which uses uncertainty estimation as input whenever possible. Quality of uncertainty estimation is a subject of over or under confident prediction, which is often not addressed in many models. In this paper we show several extensions to the Gaussian Conditional Random Fields model, which aim to provide higher quality uncertainty estimation. These extensions are applied to the temporal disease graph built from the State Inpatient Database (SID) of California, acquired from the HCUP. Our experiments demonstrate benefits of using graph information in modeling temporal disease properties as well as improvements in uncertainty estimation provided by given extensions of the Gaussian Conditional Random Fields method.

Matrix completion is a well-studied problem with many machine learning applications. In practice, the problem is often solved by non-convex optimization algorithms. However, the current theoretical analysis for non-convex algorithms relies heavily on the assumption that every entry is observed with exactly the same probability $p$, which is not realistic in practice. In this paper, we investigate a more realistic semi-random model, where the probability of observing each entry is at least $p$. Even with this mild semi-random perturbation, we can construct counter-examples where existing non-convex algorithms get stuck in bad local optima. In light of the negative results, we propose a pre-processing step that tries to re-weight the semi-random input, so that it becomes "similar" to a random input. We give a nearly-linear time algorithm for this problem, and show that after our pre-processing, all the local minima of the non-convex objective can be used to approximately recover the underlying ground-truth matrix.

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in the form of quantiles, prediction intervals, or full predictive densities. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of an approach for nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of wind power that combines support vector machines and nonlinear quantile regression with non-crossing constraints. A numerical case study is conducted using publicly available wind data from the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014. Multiple quantiles are estimated to form 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% prediction intervals which are evaluated using the pinball loss function and reliability measures. Three benchmark models are used for comparison where results demonstrate the proposed approach leads to significantly better performance while preventing the problem of overlapping quantile estimates.

One means of fitting functions to high-dimensional data is by providing smoothness constraints. Recently, the following smooth function approximation problem was proposed by \citet*{herbert2014computing}: given a finite set $E \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ and a function $f: E \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$, interpolate the given information with a function $\widehat{f} \in \dot{C}^{1, 1}(\mathbb{R}^d)$ (the class of first-order differentiable functions with Lipschitz gradients) such that $\widehat{f}(a) = f(a)$ for all $a \in E$, and the value of $\mathrm{Lip}(\nabla \widehat{f})$ is minimal. An algorithm is provided that constructs such an approximating function $\widehat{f}$ and estimates the optimal Lipschitz constant $\mathrm{Lip}(\nabla \widehat{f})$ in the noiseless setting. We address statistical aspects of reconstructing the approximating function $\widehat{f}$ from a closely-related class $C^{1, 1}(\mathbb{R}^d)$ given samples from noisy data. We observe independent and identically distributed samples $y(a) = f(a) + \xi(a)$ for $a \in E$, where $\xi(a)$ is a noise term and the set $E \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ is fixed and known. We obtain uniform bounds relating the empirical risk and true risk over the class $\mathcal{F}_{\widetilde{M}} = \{f \in C^{1, 1}(\mathbb{R}^d) \mid \mathrm{Lip}(\nabla f) \leq \widetilde{M}\}$, where the quantity $\widetilde{M}$ grows with the number of samples at a rate governed by the metric entropy of the class $C^{1, 1}(\mathbb{R}^d)$. Finally, we provide an implementation using Vaidya's algorithm, supporting our results via numerical experiments on simulated data.

Knowledge Transfer (KT) techniques tackle the problem of transferring the knowledge from a large and complex neural network into a smaller and faster one. However, existing KT methods are tailored towards classification tasks and they cannot be used efficiently for other representation learning tasks. In this paper a novel knowledge transfer technique, that is capable of training a student model that maintains the same amount of mutual information between the learned representation and a set of (possible unknown) labels as the teacher model, is proposed. Apart from outperforming existing KT techniques, the proposed method allows for overcoming several limitations of existing methods providing new insight into KT as well as novel KT applications, ranging from knowledge transfer from handcrafted feature extractors to {cross-modal} KT from the textual modality into the representation extracted from the visual modality of the data.

It is of high interest for a company to identify customers expected to bring the largest profit in the upcoming period. Knowing as much as possible about each customer is crucial for such predictions. However, their demographic data, preferences, and other information that might be useful for building loyalty programs is often missing. Additionally, modeling relations among different customers as a network can be beneficial for predictions at an individual level, as similar customers tend to have similar purchasing patterns. We address this problem by proposing a robust framework for structured regression on deficient data in evolving networks with a supervised representation learning based on neural features embedding. The new method is compared to several unstructured and structured alternatives for predicting customer behavior (e.g. purchasing frequency and customer ticket) on user networks generated from customer databases of two companies from different industries. The obtained results show $4\%$ to $130\%$ improvement in accuracy over alternatives when all customer information is known. Additionally, the robustness of our method is demonstrated when up to $80\%$ of demographic information was missing where it was up to several folds more accurate as compared to alternatives that are either ignoring cases with missing values or learn their feature representation in an unsupervised manner.

Conditional probabilistic graphical models provide a powerful framework for structured regression in spatio-temporal datasets with complex correlation patterns. However, in real-life applications a large fraction of observations is often missing, which can severely limit the representational power of these models. In this paper we propose a Marginalized Gaussian Conditional Random Fields (m-GCRF) structured regression model for dealing with missing labels in partially observed temporal attributed graphs. This method is aimed at learning with both labeled and unlabeled parts and effectively predicting future values in a graph. The method is even capable of learning from nodes for which the response variable is never observed in history, which poses problems for many state-of-the-art models that can handle missing data. The proposed model is characterized for various missingness mechanisms on 500 synthetic graphs. The benefits of the new method are also demonstrated on a challenging application for predicting precipitation based on partial observations of climate variables in a temporal graph that spans the entire continental US. We also show that the method can be useful for optimizing the costs of data collection in climate applications via active reduction of the number of weather stations to consider. In experiments on these real-world and synthetic datasets we show that the proposed model is consistently more accurate than alternative semi-supervised structured models, as well as models that either use imputation to deal with missing values or simply ignore them altogether.