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 Statistical Learning


NFFT meets Krylov methods: Fast matrix-vector products for the graph Laplacian of fully connected networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The graph Laplacian is a standard tool in data science, machine learning, and image processing. The corresponding matrix inherits the complex structure of the underlying network and is in certain applications densely populated. This makes computations, in particular matrix-vector products, with the graph Laplacian a hard task. A typical application is the computation of a number of its eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Standard methods become infeasible as the number of nodes in the graph is too large. We propose the use of the fast summation based on the nonequispaced fast Fourier transform (NFFT) to perform the dense matrix-vector product with the graph Laplacian fast without ever forming the whole matrix. The enormous flexibility of the NFFT algorithm allows us to embed the accelerated multiplication into Lanczos-based eigenvalues routines or iterative linear system solvers. We illustrate the feasibility of our approach on a number of test problems from image segmentation to semi-supervised learning based on graph-based PDEs. In particular, we compare our approach with the Nystr\"om method. Moreover, we present and test an enhanced, hybrid version of the Nystr\"om method, which internally uses the NFFT.


An Overview and a Benchmark of Active Learning for One-Class Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Active learning stands for methods which increase classification quality by means of user feedback. An important subcategory is active learning for one-class classifiers, i.e., for imbalanced class distributions. While various methods in this category exist, selecting one for a given application scenario is difficult. This is because existing methods rely on different assumptions, have different objectives, and often are tailored to a specific use case. All this calls for a comprehensive comparison, the topic of this article. This article starts with a categorization of the various methods. We then propose ways to evaluate active learning results. Next, we run extensive experiments to compare existing methods, for a broad variety of scenarios. One result is that the practicality and the performance of an active learning method strongly depend on its category and on the assumptions behind it. Another observation is that there only is a small subset of our experiments where existing approaches outperform random baselines. Finally, we show that a well-laid-out categorization and a rigorous specification of assumptions can facilitate the selection of a good method for one-class classification.


Learning ReLU Networks on Linearly Separable Data: Algorithm, Optimality, and Generalization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Neural networks with ReLU activations have achieved great empirical success in various domains. However, existing results for learning ReLU networks either pose assumptions on the underlying data distribution being e.g. Gaussian, or require the network size and/or training size to be sufficiently large. In this context, the problem of learning a two-layer ReLU network is approached in a binary classification setting, where the data are linearly separable and a hinge loss criterion is adopted. Leveraging the power of random noise, this contribution presents a novel stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm, which can provably train any single-hidden-layer ReLU network to attain global optimality, despite the presence of infinitely many bad local minima and saddle points in general. This result is the first of its kind, requiring no assumptions on the data distribution, training/network size, or initialization. Convergence of the resultant iterative algorithm to a global minimum is analyzed by establishing both an upper bound and a lower bound on the number of effective (non-zero) updates to be performed. Furthermore, generalization guarantees are developed for ReLU networks trained with the novel SGD. These guarantees highlight a fundamental difference (at least in the worst case) between learning a ReLU network as well as a leaky ReLU network in terms of sample complexity. Numerical tests using synthetic data and real images validate the effectiveness of the algorithm and the practical merits of the theory.


Quantifying the Influences on Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasts

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In recent years, probabilistic forecasts techniques were proposed in research as well as in applications to integrate volatile renewable energy resources into the electrical grid. These techniques allow decision makers to take the uncertainty of the prediction into account and, therefore, to devise optimal decisions, e.g., related to costs and risks in the electrical grid. However, it was yet not studied how the input, such as numerical weather predictions, affects the model output of forecasting models in detail. Therefore, we examine the potential influences with techniques from the field of sensitivity analysis on three different black-box models to obtain insights into differences and similarities of these probabilistic models. The analysis shows a considerable number of potential influences in those models depending on, e.g., the predicted probability and the type of model. These effects motivate the need to take various influences into account when models are tested, analyzed, or compared. Nevertheless, results of the sensitivity analysis will allow us to select a model with advantages in the practical application.


Small Sample Learning in Big Data Era

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As a promising area in artificial intelligence, a new learning paradigm, called Small Sample Learning (SSL), has been attracting prominent research attention in the recent years. In this paper, we aim to present a survey to comprehensively introduce the current techniques proposed on this topic. Specifically, current SSL techniques can be mainly divided into two categories. The first category of SSL approaches can be called "concept learning", which emphasizes learning new concepts from only few related observations. The purpose is mainly to simulate human learning behaviors like recognition, generation, imagination, synthesis and analysis. The second category is called "experience learning", which usually co-exists with the large sample learning manner of conventional machine learning. This category mainly focuses on learning with insufficient samples, and can also be called small data learning in some literatures. More extensive surveys on both categories of SSL techniques are introduced and some neuroscience evidences are provided to clarify the rationality of the entire SSL regime, and the relationship with human learning process. Some discussions on the main challenges and possible future research directions along this line are also presented.


Mitigating Sybils in Federated Learning Poisoning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) over distributed data is relevant to a variety of domains. Existing approaches, such as federated learning, compose the outputs computed by a group of devices at a central aggregator and run multi-round algorithms to generate a globally shared model. Unfortunately, such approaches are susceptible to a variety of attacks, including model poisoning, which is made substantially worse in the presence of sybils. In this paper we first evaluate the vulnerability of federated learning to sybil-based poisoning attacks. We then describe FoolsGold, a novel defense to this problem that identifies poisoning sybils based on the diversity of client contributions in the distributed learning process. Unlike prior work, our system does not assume that the attackers are in the minority, requires no auxiliary information outside of the learning process, and makes fewer assumptions about clients and their data. In our evaluation we show that FoolsGold exceeds the capabilities of existing state of the art approaches to countering ML poisoning attacks. Our results hold for a variety of conditions, including different distributions of data, varying poisoning targets, and various attack strategies.


A Precision Environment-Wide Association Study of Hypertension via Supervised Cadre Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the problem in precision health of grouping people into subpopulations based on their degree of vulnerability to a risk factor. These subpopulations cannot be discovered with traditional clustering techniques because their quality is evaluated with a supervised metric: the ease of modeling a response variable over observations within them. Instead, we apply the supervised cadre model (SCM), which does use this metric. We extend the SCM formalism so that it may be applied to multivariate regression and binary classification problems. We also develop a way to use conditional entropy to assess the confidence in the process by which a subject is assigned their cadre. Using the SCM, we generalize the environment-wide association study (EWAS) workflow to be able to model heterogeneity in population risk. In our EWAS, we consider more than two hundred environmental exposure factors and find their association with diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, and hypertension. This requires adapting the SCM to be applicable to data generated by a complex survey design. After correcting for false positives, we found 25 exposure variables that had a significant association with at least one of our response variables. Eight of these were significant for a discovered subpopulation but not for the overall population. Some of these associations have been identified by previous researchers, while others appear to be novel associations. We examine several learned subpopulations in detail, and we find that they are interpretable and that they suggest further research questions.


predictSLUMS: A new model for identifying and predicting informal settlements and slums in cities from street intersections using machine learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Identifying current and future informal regions within cities remains a crucial issue for policymakers and governments in developing countries. The delineation process of identifying such regions in cities requires a lot of resources. While there are various studies that identify informal settlements based on satellite image classification, relying on both supervised or unsupervised machine learning approaches, these models either require multiple input data to function or need further development with regards to precision. In this paper, we introduce a novel method for identifying and predicting informal settlements using only street intersections data, regardless of the variation of urban form, number of floors, materials used for construction or street width. With such minimal input data, we attempt to provide planners and policy-makers with a pragmatic tool that can aid in identifying informal zones in cities. The algorithm of the model is based on spatial statistics and a machine learning approach, using Multinomial Logistic Regression (MNL) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The proposed model relies on defining informal settlements based on two ubiquitous characteristics that these regions tend to be filled in with smaller subdivided lots of housing relative to the formal areas within the local context, and the paucity of services and infrastructure within the boundary of these settlements that require relatively bigger lots. We applied the model in five major cities in Egypt and India that have spatial structures in which informality is present. These cities are Greater Cairo, Alexandria, Hurghada and Minya in Egypt, and Mumbai in India. The predictSLUMS model shows high validity and accuracy for identifying and predicting informality within the same city the model was trained on or in different ones of a similar context.


Improving Hearthstone AI by Combining MCTS and Supervised Learning Algorithms

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate the impact of supervised prediction models on the strength and efficiency of artificial agents that use the Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm to play a popular video game Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft. We overview our custom implementation of the MCTS that is well-suited for games with partially hidden information and random effects. We also describe experiments which we designed to quantify the performance of our Hearthstone agent's decision making. We show that even simple neural networks can be trained and successfully used for the evaluation of game states. Moreover, we demonstrate that by providing a guidance to the game state search heuristic, it is possible to substantially improve the win rate, and at the same time reduce the required computations.


VizML: A Machine Learning Approach to Visualization Recommendation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data visualization should be accessible for all analysts with data, not just the few with technical expertise. Visualization recommender systems aim to lower the barrier to exploring basic visualizations by automatically generating results for analysts to search and select, rather than manually specify. Here, we demonstrate a novel machine learning-based approach to visualization recommendation that learns visualization design choices from a large corpus of datasets and associated visualizations. First, we identify five key design choices made by analysts while creating visualizations, such as selecting a visualization type and choosing to encode a column along the X- or Y-axis. We train models to predict these design choices using one million dataset-visualization pairs collected from a popular online visualization platform. Neural networks predict these design choices with high accuracy compared to baseline models. We report and interpret feature importances from one of these baseline models. To evaluate the generalizability and uncertainty of our approach, we benchmark with a crowdsourced test set, and show that the performance of our model is comparable to human performance when predicting consensus visualization type, and exceeds that of other ML-based systems.