Bounded rationality investigates utility-optimizing decision-makers with limited information-processing power. In particular, information theoretic bounded rationality models formalize resource constraints abstractly in terms of relative Shannon information, namely the Kullback-Leibler Divergence between the agents' prior and posterior policy. Between prior and posterior lies an anytime deliberation process that can be instantiated by sample-based evaluations of the utility function through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization. The most simple model assumes a fixed prior and can relate abstract information-theoretic processing costs to the number of sample evaluations. However, more advanced models would also address the question of learning, that is how the prior is adapted over time such that generated prior proposals become more efficient. In this work we investigate generative neural networks as priors that are optimized concurrently with anytime sample-based decision-making processes such as MCMC. We evaluate this approach on toy examples.

With the growth of the internet, the number of fake-news online has been proliferating every year. The consequences of such phenomena are manifold, ranging from lousy decision-making process to bullying and violence episodes. Therefore, fact-checking algorithms became a valuable asset. To this aim, an important step to detect fake-news is to have access to a credibility score for a given information source. However, most of the widely used Web indicators have either been shut-down to the public (e.g., Google PageRank) or are not free for use (Alexa Rank). Further existing databases are short-manually curated lists of online sources, which do not scale. Finally, most of the research on the topic is theoretical-based or explore confidential data in a restricted simulation environment. In this paper we explore current research, highlight the challenges and propose solutions to tackle the problem of classifying websites into a credibility scale. The proposed model automatically extracts source reputation cues and computes a credibility factor, providing valuable insights which can help in belittling dubious and confirming trustful unknown websites. Experimental results outperform state of the art in the 2-classes and 5-classes setting.

Consider the case that one observes a single time-series, where at each time t one observes a data record O(t) involving treatment nodes A(t), possible covariates L(t) and an outcome node Y(t). The data record at time t carries information for an (potentially causal) effect of the treatment A(t) on the outcome Y(t), in the context defined by a fixed dimensional summary measure Co(t). We are concerned with defining causal effects that can be consistently estimated, with valid inference, for sequentially randomized experiments without further assumptions. More generally, we consider the case when the (possibly causal) effects can be estimated in a double robust manner, analogue to double robust estimation of effects in the i.i.d. causal inference literature. We propose a general class of averages of conditional (context-specific) causal parameters that can be estimated in a double robust manner, therefore fully utilizing the sequential randomization. We propose a targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) of these causal parameters, and present a general theorem establishing the asymptotic consistency and normality of the TMLE. We extend our general framework to a number of typically studied causal target parameters, including a sequentially adaptive design within a single unit that learns the optimal treatment rule for the unit over time. Our work opens up robust statistical inference for causal questions based on observing a single time-series on a particular unit.

The health state assessment and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation play very important roles in prognostics and health management (PHM), owing to their abilities to reduce the maintenance and improve the safety of machines or equipment. However, they generally suffer from this problem of lacking prior knowledge to pre-define the exact failure thresholds for a machinery operating in a dynamic environment with a high level of uncertainty. In this case, dynamic thresholds depicted by the discrete states is a very attractive way to estimate the RUL of a dynamic machinery. Currently, there are only very few works considering the dynamic thresholds, and these studies adopted different algorithms to determine the discrete states and predict the continuous states separately, which largely increases the complexity of the learning process. In this paper, we propose a novel prognostics approach for RUL estimation of aero-engines with self-joint prediction of continuous and discrete states, wherein the prediction of continuous and discrete states are conducted simultaneously and dynamically within one learning framework.

We present a novel framework that enables efficient probabilistic inference in large-scale scientific models by allowing the execution of existing domain-specific simulators as probabilistic programs, resulting in highly interpretable posterior inference. Our framework is general purpose and scalable, and is based on a cross-platform probabilistic execution protocol through which an inference engine can control simulators in a language-agnostic way. We demonstrate the technique in particle physics, on a scientifically accurate simulation of the tau lepton decay, which is a key ingredient in establishing the properties of the Higgs boson. High-energy physics has a rich set of simulators based on quantum field theory and the interaction of particles in matter. We show how to use probabilistic programming to perform Bayesian inference in these existing simulator codebases directly, in particular conditioning on observable outputs from a simulated particle detector to directly produce an interpretable posterior distribution over decay pathways. Inference efficiency is achieved via inference compilation where a deep recurrent neural network is trained to parameterize proposal distributions and control the stochastic simulator in a sequential importance sampling scheme, at a fraction of the computational cost of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.

We investigate how generative adversarial nets (GANs) can help semi-supervised learning on graphs. We first provide insights on working principles of adversarial learning over graphs and then present GraphSGAN, a novel approach to semi-supervised learning on graphs. In GraphSGAN, generator and classifier networks play a novel competitive game. At equilibrium, generator generates fake samples in low-density areas between subgraphs. In order to discriminate fake samples from the real, classifier implicitly takes the density property of subgraph into consideration. An efficient adversarial learning algorithm has been developed to improve traditional normalized graph Laplacian regularization with a theoretical guarantee. Experimental results on several different genres of datasets show that the proposed GraphSGAN significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art methods. GraphSGAN can be also trained using mini-batch, thus enjoys the scalability advantage.

I previously wrote a post about Kernel Smoothing and how it can be used to fit a non-linear function non-parametrically. In this post, I will extend on that idea and try to mitigate the disadvantages of kernel smoothing using Local Linear Regression. I generated some data in my previous post and I will reuse the same data for this post. The data was generated from the function $\mathbf{y f(x) sin(4x) 2}$ with some Gaussian noise and here's how it looks: As I mentioned in the previous article, in kernel smoothing out-of-sample predictions on the edges and in sparse regions can have significant errors and bias. In Local Linear Regression, we try to reduce this bias to first order, by fitting straight lines instead of local constants.

I've been exploring the Royal Photographic Society (RPS) collection with data visualisation (see here). After segmenting the data by photographic technique and themes, I was interested to see if I could trace visual characteristics across the photograph collection; this is not possible by relying solely on the information in our catalogue. The collection is partly digitised and, at the time of writing, I've been working with around 1,200 items with an image and date. One way to explore an image collection visually is to use a machine-learning model to extract feature vectors from the images. Feature vectors are (multi-dimensional) numerical measures that describe the visual characteristics of an image.

The assessment of Parkinson's disease (PD) poses a significant challenge as it is influenced by various factors which lead to a complex and fluctuating symptom manifestation. Thus, a frequent and objective PD assessment is highly valuable for effective health management of people with Parkinson's disease (PwP). Here, we propose a method for monitoring PwP by stochastically modeling the relationships between their wrist movements during unscripted daily activities and corresponding annotations about clinical displays of movement abnormalities. We approach the estimation of PD motor signs by independently modeling and hierarchically stacking Gaussian process models for three classes of commonly observed movement abnormalities in PwP including tremor, (non-tremulous) bradykinesia, and (non-tremulous) dyskinesia. We use clinically adopted severity measures as annotations for training the models, thus allowing our multi-layer Gaussian process prediction models to estimate not only their presence but also their severities. The experimental validation of our approach demonstrates strong agreement of the model predictions with these PD annotations. Our results show the proposed method produces promising results in objective monitoring of movement abnormalities of PD in the presence of arbitrary and unknown voluntary motions, and makes an important step towards continuous monitoring of PD in the home environment.

Research into the classification of time series has made enormous progress in the last decade. The UCR time series archive has played a significant role in challenging and guiding the development of new learners for time series classification. The largest dataset in the UCR archive holds 10 thousand time series only; which may explain why the primary research focus has been in creating algorithms that have high accuracy on relatively small datasets. This paper introduces Proximity Forest, an algorithm that learns accurate models from datasets with millions of time series, and classifies a time series in milliseconds. The models are ensembles of highly randomized Proximity Trees. Whereas conventional decision trees branch on attribute values (and usually perform poorly on time series), Proximity Trees branch on the proximity of time series to one exemplar time series or another; allowing us to leverage the decades of work into developing relevant measures for time series. Proximity Forest gains both efficiency and accuracy by stochastic selection of both exemplars and similarity measures. Our work is motivated by recent time series applications that provide orders of magnitude more time series than the UCR benchmarks. Our experiments demonstrate that Proximity Forest is highly competitive on the UCR archive: it ranks among the most accurate classifiers while being significantly faster. We demonstrate on a 1M time series Earth observation dataset that Proximity Forest retains this accuracy on datasets that are many orders of magnitude greater than those in the UCR repository, while learning its models at least 100,000 times faster than current state of the art models Elastic Ensemble and COTE.