Online Multi-Object Tracking (MOT) from videos is a challenging computer vision task which has been extensively studied for decades. Most of the existing MOT algorithms are based on the Tracking-by-Detection (TBD) paradigm combined with popular machine learning approaches which largely reduce the human effort to tune algorithm parameters. However, the commonly used supervised learning approaches require the labeled data (e.g., bounding boxes), which is expensive for videos. Also, the TBD framework is usually suboptimal since it is not end-to-end, i.e., it considers the task as detection and tracking, but not jointly. To achieve both label-free and end-to-end learning of MOT, we propose a Tracking-by-Animation framework, where a differentiable neural model first tracks objects from input frames and then animates these objects into reconstructed frames. Learning is then driven by the reconstruction error through backpropagation. We further propose a Reprioritized Attentive Tracking to improve the robustness of data association. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real video datasets show the potential of the proposed model.

We present a simple quantile regression-based forecasting method that was applied in a probabilistic load forecasting framework of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2017 (GEFCom2017). The hourly load data is log transformed and split into a long-term trend component and a remainder term. The key forecasting element is the quantile regression approach for the remainder term that takes into account weekly and annual seasonalities such as their interactions. Temperature information is only used to stabilize the forecast of the long-term trend component. Public holidays information is ignored. Still, the forecasting method placed second in the open data track and fourth in the definite data track with our forecasting method, which is remarkable given simplicity of the model. The method also outperforms the Vanilla benchmark consistently.

Group factor analysis (GFA) methods have been widely used to infer the common structure and the group-specific signals from multiple related datasets in various fields including systems biology and neuroimaging. To date, most available GFA models require Gibbs sampling or slice sampling to perform inference, which prevents the practical application of GFA to large-scale data. In this paper we present an efficient collapsed variational inference (CVI) algorithm for the nonparametric Bayesian group factor analysis (NGFA) model built upon an hierarchical beta Bernoulli process. Our CVI algorithm proceeds by marginalizing out the group-specific beta process parameters, and then approximating the true posterior in the collapsed space using mean field methods. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our CVI algorithm for the NGFA compared with state-of-the-art GFA methods.

Generative Adversarial networks (GANs) have obtained remarkable success in many unsupervised learning tasks and unarguably, clustering is an important unsupervised learning problem. While one can potentially exploit the latent-space back-projection in GANs to cluster, we demonstrate that the cluster structure is not retained in the GAN latent space. In this paper, we propose ClusterGAN as a new mechanism for clustering using GANs. By sampling latent variables from a mixture of one-hot encoded variables and continuous latent variables, coupled with an inverse network (which projects the data to the latent space) trained jointly with a clustering specific loss, we are able to achieve clustering in the latent space. Our results show a remarkable phenomenon that GANs can preserve latent space interpolation across categories, even though the discriminator is never exposed to such vectors. We compare our results with various clustering baselines and demonstrate superior performance on both synthetic and real datasets.

Nested dichotomies are used as a method of transforming a multiclass classification problem into a series of binary problems. A tree structure is induced that recursively splits the set of classes into subsets, and a binary classification model learns to discriminate between the two subsets of classes at each node. In this paper, we demonstrate that these nested dichotomies typically exhibit poor probability calibration, even when the base binary models are well calibrated. We also show that this problem is exacerbated when the binary models are poorly calibrated. We discuss the effectiveness of different calibration strategies and show that accuracy and log-loss can be significantly improved by calibrating both the internal base models and the full nested dichotomy structure, especially when the number of classes is high.

Autonomous vehicles should be able to generate accurate probabilistic predictions for uncertain behavior of other road users. Moreover, reactive predictions are necessary in highly interactive driving scenarios to answer "what if I take this action in the future" for autonomous vehicles. There is no existing unified framework to homogenize the problem formulation, representation simplification, and evaluation metric for various prediction methods, such as probabilistic graphical models (PGM), neural networks (NN) and inverse reinforcement learning (IRL). In this paper, we formulate a probabilistic reaction prediction problem, and reveal the relationship between reaction and situation prediction problems. We employ prototype trajectories with designated motion patterns other than "intention" to homogenize the representation so that probabilities corresponding to each trajectory generated by different methods can be evaluated. We also discuss the reasons why "intention" is not suitable to serve as a motion indicator in highly interactive scenarios. We propose to use Brier score as the baseline metric for evaluation. In order to reveal the fatality of the consequences when the predictions are adopted by decision-making and planning, we propose a fatality-aware metric, which is a weighted Brier score based on the criticality of the trajectory pairs of the interacting entities. Conservatism and non-defensiveness are defined from the weighted Brier score to indicate the consequences caused by inaccurate predictions. Modified methods based on PGM, NN and IRL are provided to generate probabilistic reaction predictions in an exemplar scenario of nudging from a highway ramp. The results are evaluated by the baseline and proposed metrics to construct a mini benchmark. Analysis on the properties of each method is also provided by comparing the baseline and proposed metric scores.

Finding tight bounds on the optimal solution is a critical element of practical solution methods for discrete optimization problems. In the last decade, decision diagrams (DDs) have brought a new perspective on obtaining upper and lower bounds that can be significantly better than classical bounding mechanisms, such as linear relaxations. It is well known that the quality of the bound achieved through this flexible bounding method is highly reliant on the ordering of variables chosen for building the diagram, and finding an ordering that optimizes standard metrics, or even improving one, is an NP-hard problem. In this paper, we propose an innovative and generic approach based on deep reinforcement learning for obtaining an ordering for tightening the bounds obtained with relaxed and restricted DDs. We apply the approach to both the Maximum Independent Set Problem and the Maximum Cut Problem. Experimental results on synthetic instances show that the deep reinforcement learning approach, by achieving tighter objective function bounds, generally outperforms ordering methods commonly used in the literature when the distribution of instances is known. To the best knowledge of the authors, this is the first paper to apply machine learning to directly improve relaxation bounds obtained by general-purpose bounding mechanisms for combinatorial optimization problems.

Simulation workflow is a top-level model for the design and control of simulation process. It connects multiple simulation components with time and interaction restrictions to form a complete simulation system. Before the construction and evaluation of the component models, the validation of upper-layer simulation workflow is of the most importance in a simulation system. However, the methods especially for validating simulation workflow is very limit. Many of the existing validation techniques are domain-dependent with cumbersome questionnaire design and expert scoring. Therefore, this paper present an empirical learning-based validation procedure to implement a semi-automated evaluation for simulation workflow. First, representative features of general simulation workflow and their relations with validation indices are proposed. The calculation process of workflow credibility based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then introduced. In order to make full use of the historical data and implement more efficient validation, four learning algorithms, including back propagation neural network (BPNN), extreme learning machine (ELM), evolving new-neuron (eNFN) and fast incremental gaussian mixture model (FIGMN), are introduced for constructing the empirical relation between the workflow credibility and its features. A case study on a landing-process simulation workflow is established to test the feasibility of the proposed procedure. The experimental results also provide some useful overview of the state-of-the-art learning algorithms on the credibility evaluation of simulation models.

Support vector machines (SVMs) with sparsity-inducing nonconvex penalties have received considerable attentions for the characteristics of automatic classification and variable selection. However, it is quite challenging to solve the nonconvex penalized SVMs due to their nondifferentiability, nonsmoothness and nonconvexity. In this paper, we propose an efficient ADMM-based algorithm to the nonconvex penalized SVMs. The proposed algorithm covers a large class of commonly used nonconvex regularization terms including the smooth clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty, minimax concave penalty (MCP), log-sum penalty (LSP) and capped-$\ell_1$ penalty. The computational complexity analysis shows that the proposed algorithm enjoys low computational cost. Moreover, the convergence of the proposed algorithm is guaranteed. Extensive experimental evaluations on five benchmark datasets demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed algorithm to other three state-of-the-art approaches.

Clustering via graph-Laplacian spectral imbedding is ubiquitous in data science and machine learning. However, it becomes less efficient for large data sets due to two factors. First, computing the partial eigendecomposition of the graph-Laplacian typically requires a large Krylov subspace. Second, after the spectral imbedding is complete, the clustering is typically performed with various relaxations of k-means, which may become prone to getting stuck in local minima and scale poorly in terms of computational cost for large data sets. Here we propose two novel algorithms for spectral clustering of a subset of the graph vertices (target subset) based on the theory of model order reduction. They rely on realizations of a reduced order model (ROM) that accurately approximates the diffusion transfer function of the original graph for inputs and outputs restricted to the target subset. While our focus is limited to this subset, our algorithms produce its clustering that is consistent with the overall structure of the graph. Moreover, working with a small target subset reduces greatly the required dimension of Krylov subspace and allows to exploit the approximations of k-means in the regimes when they are most robust and efficient, as verified by the numerical experiments. There are several uses for our algorithms. First, they can be employed on their own to clusterize a representative subset in cases when the full graph clustering is either infeasible or not required. Second, they may be used for quality control. Third, as they drastically reduce the problem size, they enable the application of more powerful approximations of k-means like those based on semi-definite programming (SDP) instead of the conventional Lloyd's algorithm. Finally, they can be used as building blocks of a divide-and-conquer algorithm for the full graph clustering. The latter will be reported in a separate article.